Based on reported seeded acres earlier in the year, several types appear to have
significantly decreased production estimates. Regular Kabuli chickpeas seem to have the
largest decrease; production could be down over 60 per cent as farmers continue to favour
planting the Frontier variety, largely because of its tolerance to disease.

Ending chickpea stocks for 2008-09 are expected to decline mainly due to lower
production. However, prices are likely to be driven more by world influences, as Canada
is a relatively minor player in the global chickpea market.

— The FarmLink Market Insight was researched and produced by FarmLink Marketing Solutions, a marketing advisory service for Prairie farmers, and is published here with permission of the authors.

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Statistics Canada did project a big increase in the durum crop to 4.9 million tonnes, but
the result was below what the market was expecting. Still, even this lower-than-expected
production should take some pressure off what has been a tight supply. However, there
have been some quality problems showing up in early harvest results, a situation that will
continue to be closely monitored in the marketplace.

Durum demand from the U.S. should remain steady, while elsewhere in the world Canada
will have to compete against an increase in exports from the EU. Canada’s exports may
expand over last year, but buyers will once again have a choice of at least two sellers.

– The FarmLink Market Insight was researched and produced by FarmLink Marketing Solutions, a marketing advisory service for Prairie farmers, and is published here with permission of the authors.

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The increase in harvested percentage is likely impacted by attractive malt barley returns
and struggles in the livestock sector, while the higher predicted yields are consistent with
recent reports of crop conditions across much of the Prairies.

Exports will likely be lower than last year’s as stiff competition from other feed barley
suppliers enters the world markets. Neither Australia nor the Black Sea region were
major players last year due to crop failures, but larger crops and a freight advantage to
key export destinations will make these regions more competitive. As a result, Canadian
feed barley exports will be mostly limited to the Japanese market.

Even with the expectation of above-average yield and a reduction in exports, the supply
and demand balance for barley is not overly burdensome. Lower barley values and higher
livestock prices later in the crop year could help increase domestic feed usage. Barley
prices will also be heavily influenced by U.S. corn prices as well.

– The FarmLink Market Insight was researched and produced by FarmLink Marketing Solutions, a marketing advisory service for Prairie farmers, and is published here with permission of the authors.

The post Market Insight: StatsCan estimates barley production appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

A few things have come together to cause a shift in market sentiment. Hot, dry weather
in the U.S. Midwest is taking its toll on crop conditions, and there are reports of some
soybean fields running into disease problems.

What’s more, the crop is behind and still at
risk of getting hit with an early frost before making it into the bin. Much of the
speculative liquidation that took place through July and early August has subsided, as
well. The market is also looking ahead to the need for virtually all crops to protect and, in
some cases, increase seeded area for 2009.

The outlook for western Canadian crops will become clearer in the coming weeks as
more harvest results come in. Early yield reports are generally quite good, but it’s still
uncertain if this will be offset by those parts of the Prairies that have struggled.

Any
surprises in the August 22nd Statistics Canada report could impact the market, either
through futures or basis values. Prices for all crops will continue to be heavily influenced
by the corn and soybean markets in the U.S.

The post Markets recover off recent lows appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

Reports estimated delayed plantings due to sporadic and insufficient rainfall of between
3.7 million and five million acres by late July, though most expect at least half of these
acres to eventually get planted.

Even if plantings catch up, India’s largest pulse-producing areas won’t nearly produce the
15 million-plus tonnes harvested last year. The approximately 2.5 million-acre decrease
in area and dry conditions are estimated to cut production in the pulse-heavy regions by
nine to 10 per cent.

Compounding this, Indian’s main import supplier, Myanmar, is
having an equally tough production year. Imports for 2008 have been slower to date than
average as world supply has been tight.

All the bad news for production in India has had little impact on recent prices, however,
as FarmLink’s own internal cash price for yellow edible peas is a full dollar per bushel
off the May/June highs of $9.50 to $9.80 (prices in southern Saskatchewan).

The final
acreage and production decrease won’t be known for some weeks yet, adding future
potential for volatility to the market.

– The FarmLink Market Insight was researched and produced by FarmLink Marketing Solutions, a marketing advisory service for Prairie farmers, and is published here with permission of the authors.

The post Market Insight: India’s pulse plantings delayed appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

The sluggish start to the growing season seems to have worked itself out with the
arrival of a few weeks of good weather late in July, except in those parts of North Dakota
that are really hurting for rain. In general, the crop looks to be a week behind schedule.
Double crop plantings are also behind in Kansas as the winter wheat crop came off late.

Confectionary sunflower plantings, at roughly 314,000 acres, are actually up in the U.S.
this year by about three per cent over 2007’s numbers, which is somewhat surprising
given that most had pegged acres to drop. Oil acres are up only about five per cent this
year, to just under 1.9 million acres.

A 10 per cent increase was widely predicted causing some
market watchers to scratch their heads at the modest acreage increase, especially as the
U.S. is reporting a 16% sunflower oil import increase year over year. The bulk of imports
came from Mexico, where exports were up an astonishing 44 per cent.

Sunflower plantings in
Manitoba, which grows most of the crop in Canada, are down an estimated 15, 000 acres
for an estimated 175,000-acre crop.

World supplies of both confectionary and oil sunflower types are tight, with old crop
supplies being drawn done by good demand from processors, crushers and the birdseed
market. However, weakness in the soybean oil market and good growing conditions have
pushed prices downward recently. Continued good weather may keep this market moving
sideways at best.

The post Sunflower planting surprise; markets dragged down by soybeans appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

The October
futures contract traded as high as $280 per metric tonne (MT) before pulling back and
stabilizing in the $240/MT range.

Conditions for cereal yields have generally improved across the Prairies as timely rains
and favorable temperatures have resulted in mostly good growing conditions in July.
Although there are pockets where conditions have not been favorable, these continue to
be compensated for by areas that should see better than average yields.

With only a
month to go before harvest, the likelihood of a weather-induced yield threat has been
greatly reduced.
Despite the expectation of good yields, this year’s barley crop will still be one of the
smallest in recent years due to the lower seeded area. However, lower export sales,
particularly for feed barley, and reduced demand from the livestock sector will partially
offset the positive effects of tight supplies.

The post Smaller new crop barley supplies partially offset by lower demand appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

Almost perfect weather in recent weeks has allowed the U.S. crop to rebound from the
massive flooding seen earlier, which had resulted in a substantial weather premium being
built into the market. With the market raising their estimates for corn and soybean yields,
there is less need for immediate sharp demand rationing, which has pulled values back to
the levels we saw prior to this latest spike. Spring wheat is the only crop where U.S.
conditions lag, but a good winter wheat harvest and large crops in the EU and Black Sea
regions keep that market from advancing.

If there is a silver lining in seeing the market fall by $2 per bushel or more in corn, soybeans and
canola, and almost as much in wheat, it’s that lower prices keep the market from
rationing too much demand too early in the year.

At the recent peak there was
considerable talk of further reduction in livestock herds, ethanol mandates being relaxed
and additional U.S. Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) acres being opened up. Some of
these things may still happen, but pressure has eased somewhat to the point where these
decisions are now likely to be pushed back until later this summer.

– The FarmLink Market Insight was researched and produced by FarmLink Marketing Solutions, a marketing advisory service for Prairie farmers, and is published here with permission of the authors.

The post Market Insight: Markets shed weather premium appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

Concerns about crop conditions, relatively good exports, and domestic
crush being on pace to set a new record this crop year have provided some support to
values. However, extreme volatility and recent price pressure for both soybeans and
crude oil have weighed on the canola market.

There are still many uncertainties facing the canola market going forward. Canola crop
conditions are lagging in parts of the Prairies, while the Ukraine has increased
production. The outcome of the Australian crop is still unknown, as well.

Although
soybean conditions have improved in the U.S. after a late start, the old-crop carryout is
tight and the market will remain very sensitive to any more yield threats.

Further adding
to the uncertainty are the potential for the U.S. to draw more Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) acres into production,
continued talk of lawmakers reining in speculators in commodity markets and ongoing
volatility in the energy markets. All of this will keep prices highly variable throughout
the rest of the summer.

– The FarmLink Market Insight was researched and produced by FarmLink Marketing Solutions, a marketing advisory service for Prairie farmers, and is published here with permission of the authors.

The post Market Insight: Canola prices remain volatile appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

Both the Canadian and U.S. crops are
generally in good shape; there is a fairly large carry-in from the 2007-08 crop year,
and North American processor demand remains flat. There is the potential for other
global factors, such as issues with Australian and Scandinavian crop conditions or
Japanese buying to influence prices, but the fact that North America makes up 80
per cent of global production, consumption and trade renders these things less
important.

Despite the adequate supplies, domestic oat bids had strengthened prior to this week’s
futures market correction. However, this was driven largely by speculative buying in
the futures market and in sympathy with surging corn prices.

Prairie cash bids lagged
the gains seen in futures as buyers widened out basis levels, particularly for fall
delivery. Cash bids are showing a significant premium for delivery later in the
2008-09 marketing year, another indication that buyers are well covered through fall
and into winter.

— The FarmLink Market Insight was researched and produced by FarmLink Marketing Solutions, a marketing advisory service for Prairie farmers, and is published here with permission of the authors.

The post Market Insight: Oat supply seen adequate appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.