“It still looks like a weak La Niña will form over the coming months and should be short lived… that being said other factors continue to favor overall favorable precipitation across the croplands of Australia during their summer regardless of whether La Nina is a major player or not,” AccuWeather’s lead international forecaster Jason Nicholls said.

La Niña, a climatic phenomenon characterized by cooler-than-average ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is associated with both floods and droughts affecting global agriculture, and higher Caribbean hurricane activity.

The cycle between El Niño, La Niña, and a neutral phase typically lasts two to seven years. La Niña usually brings less rain and worsening drought conditions which also has the potential to affect agriculture globally.

Earlier this week, Japan’s weather bureau said that there were no signs of El Niño or La Niña phenomena at this moment, but characteristics of La Niña were approaching.

— Reporting for Reuters by Rahul Paswan in Bengaluru

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The current neutral phase between La Niña and El Niño weather patterns is expected to continue for several months, with a 79 per cent chance of La Niña November through January, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast.

La Niña, a climate pattern that begins with colder-than-normal ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is linked to both floods and drought, as well as an increase in the frequency of hurricanes in the Caribbean. The cycle between El Niño, La Niña, and a neutral phase typically lasts two to seven years.

Experts have said Latin America and the Caribbean should brace for the arrival of La Niña.

In rice- and palm oil-producing Southeast Asian countries, meanwhile, wet weather could boost yields, while a normal Indian monsoon could support production and farm incomes.

“The transition to La Niña will favor at least normal rainfall across the main growing areas in India… The main areas to watch for crop and supply chain issues look to be across southeast Europe, Argentina, Uruguay and Chile,” AccuWeather’s lead international forecaster Jason Nicholls said.

“In our view, a transition to La Niña conditions, which the U.S. National Weather Service consider more likely than not to occur in July-September 2024, will support a rebound in rice production in Southeast Asia, areas of which had seen below-average rainfall during the now dissipated 2023-2024 El Niño event,” analysts at BMI said in a note on Wednesday.

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