Agriculture Canada ups canola carryout forecast sharply

Winnipeg | CNS Canada – Canadian canola carryout stocks at the end of the current marketing year (2018/19) will be considerably larger than an earlier estimate, according to updated supply/demand tables from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, released on Oct. 19, 2018.

Agriculture Canada’s market analysis branch forecast canola ending stocks for 2018/19 at 2.500 million tonnes, which would be double the September estimate, but in line with the 2017/18 carryout of 2.391 million tonnes.

Wheat ending stocks for 2018/19 were raised by 600,000 tonnes, to 5.600 million. That compares with the 2017/18 wheat carryout of 6.173 million tonnes.

Related Articles

The ending stocks adjustments were largely linked to updated production estimates released by Statistics Canada in September.

Total ending stocks of the major grains and oilseeds for 2018/19 were lowered to 12.545 million tonnes, from an earlier forecast of 10.345 million. Grain and oilseed ending stocks for the 2017/18 marketing year, which ended July 31, were pegged at 13.904 million tonnes.

Total pulse and special crop ending stocks for 2018/19 are now pegged at 1.760 million tonnes, which compares with the September estimate of 1.540 million and the 2017/18 carryout of 1.663 million tonnes.

October estimates for Canadian 2018/19 (Aug/Jul) and 2017/18 major crops supply and demand. In million metric tonnes.

Grains and Oilseeds

—-Production—-           —-Exports—-

2018/19 2018/19 2017/18   2018/19 2018/19 2017/18

Oct 19  Sep 18            Oct 19  Sep 18

All Wht  31.010  29.987  29.984    22.600  22.200  21.867

Durum     5.706   5.034   4.962     4.600   4.800   4.387

Barley    8.227   7.992   7.891     2.400   2.400   2.883

Corn     14.461  13.789  14.095     1.800   1.600   1.830

Oats      3.383   3.305   3.733     2.400   2.400   2.412

Canola   20.999  19.162  21.328    11.500  11.000  10.909

Flaxseed  0.511   0.494   0.555     0.400   0.400   0.485

Soybeans  7.515   7.010   7.717     5.700   5.300   4.998

TOTAL    86.471  81.103  85.794    46.953  45.453  45.580

—-Domestic Usage—-      —-Ending Stocks—-

2018/19 2018/19 2017/18   2018/19 2018/19 2017/18

Oct 19  Sep 19            Oct 19  Sep 18

All Wht   9.073   8.067   8.883     5.600   5.000   6.173

Durum     0.992   0.717   0.934     1.600   1.000   1.477

Barley    6.148   6.023   5.943     1.000   0.900   1.256

Corn     14.278  14.139  14.009     2.200   1.750   2.417

Oats      1.162   1.109   1.258     0.625   0.600   0.784

Canola    9.490   9.403   9.474     2.500   1.250   2.391

Flaxseed  0.124   0.131   0.190     0.125   0.100   0.128

Soybeans  2.416   2.406   2.909     0.450   0.705   0.651

TOTAL    42.968  41.555  43.021    12.540  10.345  13.904

 

Pulse and Special Crops

——-Production——-   ——-Exports——-

2018/19  2018/19 2017/18  2018/19 2018/19 2017/18

Oct 19   Sep 18           Oct 19  Sep 18

Dry peas    3.735    3.635   4.112    2.800   2.900   3.086

Lentils     2.230    2.167   2.559    1.900   1.800   1.540

Dry beans   0.349    0.312   0.322    0.350   0.340   0.351

Chickpeas   0.283    0.264   0.102    0.115   0.135   0.116

Mustard     0.175    0.175   0.122    0.120   0.125   0.112

Canaryseed  0.111    0.111   0.145    0.115   0.105   0.147

Sunflower   0.058    0.058   0.058    0.025   0.025   0.017

TOTAL       6.942    6.723   7.419    5.425   5.432   5.369

—–Domestic Usage——    —–Ending Stocks—–

2018/19  2018/19 2017/18  2018/19 2018/19 2017/18

Oct 19   Sep 18           Oct 19  Sep 18

Dry peas    0.901    0.900   0.688    0.700   0.500   0.650

Lentils     0.492    0.478   0.492    0.750   0.800   0.876

Dry beans   0.024    0.022   0.023    0.090   0.065   0.035

Chick peas  0.062    0.063   0.033    0.115   0.075   0.001

Mustard     0.047    0.047   0.049    0.060   0.055   0.050

Canaryseed  0.006    0.006   0.003    0.005   0.005   0.005

Sunflower   0.053    0.053   0.053    0.040   0.040   0.035

TOTAL       1.585    1.570   1.663    1.760   1.540   1.663

Source: Agriculture and Agri Food Canada.

explore

Stories from our other publications