MarketsFarm — Updated acreage estimates from Statistics Canada came largely within market expectations, with the focus now shifting to growing conditions and yield potential.
The survey was completed in early June “and may not have captured all of the seeding delays and potential shifts that may have happened in central/northern Alberta and northwestern Saskatchewan because it was too wet,” said analyst Mike Jubinville of MarketsFarm Pro.
Total canola area for 2020-21 was pegged at 20.778 million acres, which was at the higher end of trade estimates but still slightly below the 20.956 million acres seeded the previous year.
Jubinville expected the canola acres could be trimmed a little more, with some of that area going into barley or oats, but didn’t expect it would be enough to shift the market.
“The attention to yield will be a more important going forward,” he said adding that any more “nickel-and-diming” in acreage estimates wouldn’t likely be enough to change the market sentiment too much.
StatsCan forecast total wheat area at 24.971 million acres, down about 500,000 from the previous estimate. Of that total, spring wheat was pegged at 17.926 million acres. That would be down from both the previous estimate and the year-ago level. However, durum was revised higher, at 5.689 million acres.
Lentils were also revised higher from an earlier estimate, with the projected 4.233 million acres up 12 per cent on the year.
“The economics of growing lentils looks more attractive going into this growing season than it has in the last number of years,” said Jubinville.
Table: A recap of Statistics Canada’s survey-based report on planted acres as of June 11, 2020. Pre-report expectations are provided for comparison purposes. Figures are in millions of acres.
|Trade projection. .||2020-21, .||2020-21, .||2019-20|
|Barley||6.800 – 7.500||7.503||7.250||7.402|
|Canola||20.300 – 21.000||20.778||20.615||20.956|
|Corn||3.400 – 3.900||3.559||3.815||3.695|
|Flax||0.900 – 1.000||0.911||0.942||0.937|
|Lentils||4.000 – 4.500||4.233||3.709||3.781|
|Oats||3.700 – 4.200||3.839||3.833||3.606|
|Peas||3.800 – 4.400||4.255||4.279||4.333|
|Soybeans||5.100 – 5.300||5.070||5.220||5.714|
|All wheat *||25.300 – 25.800||24.971||25.427||24.604|
|Durum||5.500 – 5.800||5.689||5.228||4.894|
* — “All wheat” includes spring wheat, durum wheat, and winter wheat remaining after winterkill.