CBOT weekly outlook: Harvest lows possibly already in for soy, corn

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MarketsFarm — Soybean and corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade may have already hit their harvest lows for the season, despite the fact that the bulk of the harvest is still some time away.

“Going forward, I think the short-term lows are probably established,” said Terry Reilly, of Futures International in Chicago.

The nearby bounce in both soybeans and corn, after both commodities tested the lower edge of their ranges over the past week, was supportive, he said. However, he added that “we’ll have to wait and see in a few weeks” when the harvest gets underway in earnest.

Barring a fresh catalyst to push prices one way or the other, he expected November soybeans would trade in a choppy range between $12.70 and $13.30 (all figures US$).

Rising global demand for vegetable oil for industrial use and recent changes to India’s import prices for palm oil were both supportive for soyoil, which Reilly expected would underpin soybeans as well.

For corn, he pegged the range at $5.15-$5.60 per bushel, with more potential to the upside than the downside.

Reports of lower-than-expected soybean yields in parts of the Midwest could provide some support, Reilly said, while anecdotal reports on corn yields were mixed, with counties reportedly looking at potentially record corn yields.

“As soon as harvesting gets underway for soybeans and corn, the winter wheat will go in the ground in the Midwestern states,” he said.

Dryness in the Great Plains was tempering winter wheat plantings. Meanwhile, Canada’s small crop was seen as supportive for spring wheat. He expected to see Kansas City and Minneapolis futures grow their premium over Chicago soft wheat going forward.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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