CBOT weekly outlook: Harvest moving markets sideways

Standing corn north of St. Adolphe, Man. on Sept. 19, 2021. (Dave Bedard photo)

Updated, Sept. 22 — MarketsFarm — Harvesting continues to progress in both Canada and the United States, resulting in quiet activity at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).

“Right now during harvest, the corn, wheat and beans are all stuck in a narrow range,” said Ryan Ettner, trader for Allendale Inc. at McHenry, Ill.

“For the December corn would be between $5.30 and $5 (per bushel, all figures US$); for November (soybeans), $13 down to $12.50 (per bushel). (For) both those markets, we raised yields on the last (U.S. Department of Agriculture) report slightly and I think trade is pretty happy where the yields are at.”

Ettner added the trade had expected USDA to raise next month’s yield estimates for corn and soybeans, but disease concerns are reducing potential increases.

“It seems like (the trade) is just happy with the assumption USDA will leave yields alone,” he said.

As the wheat harvest nears completion in Canada and the northern U.S., the market is now focused on demand. However, wheat exports had been “poor” for 13 weeks until last week’s total of 617,000 tonnes, according to Ettner.

“We need more numbers of (500,000 tonnes) or more, but one week out of 14 is not enough to get trade too excited…In the whole, over the last month or so, we’ve been grinding lower,” he added.

Recent Chinese purchases of soybeans have brought support to prices, raising them above USDA’s average farm price of $12.50/bu.

“Corn is a bit under fair value ($5.30/bu.) right now and beans are still a little bit over fair value, but those are the numbers we look for prices to gravitate to until the USDA changes carryout again…(Those prices) could be where we gravitate to for two months,” said Ettner.

“As long as harvest keeps moving along pretty well (with) light harvest pressure, I don’t think really think selling will be aggressive,” he added.

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.


Stories from our other publications