CBOT weekly outlook: Markets react to WASDE

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MarketsFarm — Trading at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was mostly affected by the release of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s supply and demand estimates (WASDE) released earlier today.

Corn, wheat and soybeans were all projected for greater worldwide production in the 2021-22 crop year compared to the previous year.

Worldwide corn production is estimated at 1.19 billion tonnes for the upcoming crop year, slightly greater than the 1.13 billion tonnes from 2020-21. Worldwide wheat production will total 789 million tonnes this year compared to 776.1 million tonnes in 2020-21. Soybean production will total 385.5 million tonnes worldwide this year, an increase from 362.95 million last year.

Terry Reilly, a grains analyst for Futures International at McHenry, Ill., said traders thought grain numbers were “a little bearish.” He also mentioned U.S. wheat carryout numbers were higher than expected, as well as new-crop corn, but old-crop corn was lower than expected. U.S. soybean numbers were “within expectations.

“The most important thing to keep an eye out is the robust crush the USDA has for new (soybean) crop. They don’t see the export program is strong for new-crop, as well. We’re seeing a bit of selling in the back months for soybeans.”

Soybean stocks, he added, “are going to be a little more comfortable next year relative to this year. I think the traders are trying to soak in these numbers and get position a little bit and go from there…Grains could go sideways (over the next week) and we’ll see related products trend a little bit higher because of robust global demand for crush.”

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.



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