Corn exports expected down in AAFC’s October outlook

MarketsFarm — Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) on Friday issued its October outlook for principal field crops, with some revisions compared to the September report.

One of the most notable numbers from AAFC was the drop in 2019-20 corn exports, which were estimated to be about 1.5 million tonnes, over 20 per cent less compared to the September estimate.

Also for that crop year, the carryout was lowered by more than 18 per cent, to 1.8 million tonnes.

Carryout for 2019-20 canola was revised upward as well, by nearly 4.5 per cent, to 4.7 million tonnes.

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For 2019-20, the October report placed canola production at 19.4 million tonnes. That’s down five per cent from the previous year.

Canola exports were estimated to be 9.2 million tonnes, or 1.1 million tonnes below the five-year average, largely due to the loss of the China market. Increased exports elsewhere and lower Australian canola and European rapeseed production provided some cushioning.

As for wheat excluding durum, production was pegged in the October report to increase by four per cent to 27.5 million tonnes. The report noted the revision was based on more acres seeded countered by lower average yields and higher abandonment for winter wheat.

Wheat exports were lowered by four per cent to 19 million tonnes, based on greater global competition from other exporting countries incurring larger production.

For durum, October’s report dropped production by 13 per cent from 2018-19, to five million tonnes, due to 21 per cent fewer acres. Higher yields made up for part of the decline.

The durum carryout was forecast to be one million tonnes for 2019-20, for a 40 per cent drop from the previous year.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm, a Glacer FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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