ICE weekly outlook: Canola flat, awaiting spark

CNS Canada — ICE Futures Canada canola contracts held within a narrow $5 range over the past week, lacking any significant fundamental news one way or the other as market participants look for direction.

“There’s just no news in the market,” said analyst Wayne Palmer of Agri-Trend. He thought prices would eventually move higher, but said now was a time to be patient.

“I think we’ll have a rally, either late 2017 or early 2018,” he said, but added “I wouldn’t sell it now.”

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Exporter and domestic crusher demand should help take prices up at some point, he said, as farmers have good storage and will be shutting their bins after the harvest.

“Unless you break canola under $485 and bring in another round of fund selling — if we stay around here, I can see us trading over $500 in the November futures by the end of October.”

There were a number of factors to watch in the background that could set some nearby direction, he said, including the Canadian dollar, the U.S. soybean harvest and Brazilian weather.

“Any spark could take this market higher though the end of the year,” said Palmer.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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