North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola holds onto small gains

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, MarketsFarm

Winnipeg, Dec. 3 (MarketsFarm) – The ICE Futures canola market held onto small gains on Tuesday, seeing a modest correction after Monday’s sharp losses.

Solid demand from domestic crushers and oversold price sentiment contributed to the gains.

However, weakness in the outside equity markets kept some caution in the market as investors reacted to the latest conflicting trade statements from United States President Donald Trump.

Statistics Canada releases updated production estimates on Friday, and positioning ahead of the report should account for some activity over the next few days. After pegging the crop at 19.4 million tonnes in September, average trade guesses predict a final number closer to 20 million tonnes as yields beat expectations despite adverse harvest weather, according to a trader.

About 22,707 canola contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 24,313 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 14,300 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade settled with small gains on Tuesday, seeing a modest correction off of the three-month lows hit Monday.

Uncertainty over trade relations between the United States and China kept the soybean market under pressure, as U.S. President Donald Trump commented in Europe that a deal may now wait until after the 2020 U.S. election.

Fresh U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports are set to go into effect on December 15, and China is expected to retaliate.

The U.S. soybean harvest was 96 per cent complete in the latest weekly report. That was up by only two points from the previous week, as poor conditions hamper progress for the final stages of the harvest.

CORN was steady to lower at the final bell, after trading within a narrow range throughout the session.

The U.S. corn harvest was 89 per cent complete as of this past Sunday, which was well off the 98 per cent average for this time of year. The North Dakota corn harvest was farthest behind, with only 36 per cent off the field.

A winter storm over the weekend likely caused more delays, and some fields will be left to overwinter.

WHEAT futures were mixed, with losses in the winter wheats and gains in Minneapolis spring wheat as the spreads between the three contracts saw some adjustment.

Australia’s wheat crop was pegged at 15.9 million tonnes by ABARES, which would be down 8 per cent on the year and well off the 10-year average.

Futures Prices as of December 3, 2019

Price Change
Milling Wheat
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New Barley
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Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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