North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola retreats from early gains to end lower

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, April 7 (MarketsFarm) – The ICE Futures canola market retreated from early gains to settle with small losses on Tuesday, after running into chart resistance.

Early strength in Chicago Board of Trade soyoil provided some spillover support for canola, but soymeal was lower and soybeans settled near unchanged.

The Canadian dollar rallied well above 71 U.S. cents on Tuesday, and the strength in the currency contributed to the eventual downturn in canola, according to participants.

Ongoing uncertainty over the COVID-19 pandemic also remained another bearish influence in the background.

About 14,626 canola contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 15,457 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 10,822 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade settled narrowly mixed on Tuesday in thin and choppy activity.
Strength in the outside equity markets accounted for some of the spillover buying interest in soybeans, although the upside was limited.

The United States Department of Agriculture is set to release its monthly supply/demand report on Thursday, and pre-report positioning accounted for some of the activity.

Estimates ahead of the report are wide ranging, with most analysts calling for an upward revision to the U.S. ending stocks forecast.

CORN futures posted small gains, seeing a correction after Monday’s losses.

Ideas that corn was starting to look oversold accounted for some of the buying interest, as prices recovered after touching fresh contract lows.

Corn seeding is underway in the southern U.S., with some states running ahead of average and some a bit behind.

Corn ending stocks estimates ahead of Thursday’s USDA report are also mixed, with average guesses calling for slight increases to both the US and world supplies.

WHEAT futures were lower, with the largest losses in Chicago soft wheat.

The U.S. winter wheat crop was rated 62 per cent good to excellent in the first countrywide USDA report of the season. That compares with 60 per cent at the same time last year, and beat trade estimates that only 56 per cent of the crop would reach the top-two quality categories.

Futures Prices as of April 7, 2020

Price Change
Milling Wheat
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New Barley
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Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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