North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola up ahead of updated production estimates

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, Sept. 13 (MarketsFarm) – The ICE Futures canola market was stronger on Monday, with chart-based speculative buying a feature as prices continued to correct off of nearby lows.

Ideas that recent losses were overdone contributed to the gains, with the November contract moving well above the psychological C$850 per tonne level

Statistics Canada releases updated production estimates on Tuesday, and general expectations are for a downward revision to the already small 14.7 million tonne crop forecast in late-August. The harvest is underway across the Prairies, and early anecdotal reports point to average yields well below the current forecast.

The Chicago Board of Trade soy complex was mixed, with slight losses in beans, gains in soymeal, and a steady tone in soyoil.

About 19,663 canola contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 31,699 contracts changed hands. Spreading was a feature, accounting for 13,260 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade held near unchanged on Monday, with the bias to the downside in the most active months.

The upward revision to production estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture on Friday remained a bearish influence to start the week, especially as relatively favourable Midwestern weather conditions have many industry participants anticipating even larger yields than the 50.6 bushels per acre currently forecast by the government agency.

Crop ratings are expected to have shown a slight improvement on the week.

Solid export demand on the other side provided underlying support, with the USDA reporting yet another 132,000 tonne sale to China this morning.

CORN was also pressured by last week’s upwardly revised production estimates from the USDA.

Average U.S. corn yields for the year were pegged at 176.3 bushels per acre, with planted area up by 600,000 acres. The total crop was pegged at 14.996 billion bushels, up 1.7 per cent from August, and the second-largest on record.

Condition ratings for the U.S. corn crop are also expected to have shown some improvement from last week’s 59 per cent good-to-excellent.

WHEAT was mixed, with gains in Kansas City hard red winter wheat and losses in the Chicago and Minneapolis contracts.

Ample world wheat supplies reported by the USDA last Friday kept some caution in the market. They raised the world wheat carryout for the year by 4 million tonnes, to 283.2 million.

Good seeding weather for the U.S. winter wheat crop was also putting some pressure on values, with the U.S. spring wheat harvest nearing completion.

Futures Prices as of September 13, 2021

Canola
Price Change
Milling Wheat
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
Durum
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
New Barley
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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