North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Rain forecast pushes down canola bids

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, June 21 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were lower on Friday, as more rain has been forecast for the Prairies this weekend.

The Prairies received 15 to 65 millimeters of rain over most of the region this week. While the precipitation was helpful to struggling crops, it wasn’t enough to end dry conditions. However, the rainfall was enough to eliminate much of the weather premium canola was receiving on the market.

Statistics Canada releases its acreage report on June 26. The markets have pegged canola acres to be down 1 million acres from April’s report at 20.7 million. That would also be 2 million acres less from last year’s acreage.

As well, the agency has been expected to raise slightly its estimate of total wheat acres to 25.7 million acres, a gain of 30,000 from April’s report.
The Canadian dollar weaker at 75.69 U.S. cents by mid-afternoon Friday.

There were 18,637 contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 34,483 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 14,046 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Jul 453.40 dn 2.40
Nov 467.30 dn 2.40
Jan 474.60 dn 2.30
Mar 481.20 dn 1.50

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were lower on Friday, as export shipments continue to lag behind pace and due to the United States weather forecast. Prices lost between 12 and 14 cents per bushel.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported there remains approximately 11.0 million tonnes of soybean that has not left the country for overseas. Shipments at this point were 79 per cent of projections, compared to 90 per cent at this point last year.

There are forecasts for rain next week over the U.S. Midwest and Plains, with Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa and Illinois to get the brunt of it.

The USDA releases its acreage report on June 28, and it’s expected to show an increase in soybean acres and a decrease in corn acres.

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) could go nowhere in the U.S. Congress. Democrats indicated they are prepared to stall the new trade agreement that is to succeed the North American Free Trade Agreement. Mexico ratified the trade pact earlier this week. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau commented Parliament has been scheduled to ratify the agreement before October’s federal election.

CORN futures were weaker on Friday, also due to timid export shipments and the forecast. Bids slid seven to eight cents per bushel.
Corn shipments reached 87 per cent of the USDA’s projections, compared to 99 per cent this time last year.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) pegged Argentina’s corn harvest at a little more than 44 per cent complete. That’s below the average pace of about 50 per cent.

FranceAgriMer reported the condition of France’s corn didn’t change very much. As of June 17, the crop rated as 81 good to excellent, down one point from the previous week.

WHEAT futures were down on Friday, due to spillover from soybeans and corn.

Chicago wheat lost a half cent to a penny per bushel. Minneapolis wheat slipped one to three cents, and Kansas City wheat dropped six to eight cents.
Wet conditions have continued to slow the U.S. winter wheat harvest, especially in Kansas, according to the USDA.

Farmers in Argentina are expected to plant slightly more wheat acres in 2019/20, according to that country’s government. The estimate called for about 16.10 million acres to be planted.

FranceAgriMer reported the condition of France’s soft wheat crop as 80 per cent good to excellent. Additionally, the consultancy firm reported France’s barley rated 75 per cent good to excellent, up one point from the previous week.

Russia’s winter wheat harvest has been underway, with reports of good yields. However, Russia, Ukraine and Europe have been getting

Futures Prices as of June 21, 2019

Canola
Price Change
Milling Wheat
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
Durum
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
New Barley
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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