North American Grains/Oilseed Review: Weekend rains weigh on canola, boost soybeans

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, MarketsFarm

Winnipeg, June 24 (MarketsFarm) – The ICE Futures canola market was weaker on Monday, as rains across the Prairies over the weekend had speculators taking some of the weather premium out of the market.

Large old crop supplies and the ongoing trade dispute with China also continued to weigh on values, according to participants.

Positioning ahead of Statistics Canada’s acreage estimate on Wednesday was a feature. General expectations are for a decline in the canola number from earlier estimates, but the extent of the revision remains to be seen.

Chicago Board of Trade soybeans were stronger on Monday, providing some spillover support for canola.

In addition, while any moisture was welcomed where it hit, many areas of Western Canada remain too dry and in need of more precipitation.

About 17,686 canola contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 18,637 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 10,442 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN future at the Chicago Board of Trade were stronger on Monday, as persistent seeding delays across the United States Midwest provided support.

The wet weather has also hampered development for what is in the ground, which added to the firmer tone.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is set to release updated acreage estimates on Friday, June 28, although traders remain uncertain if this report will show the full picture as many farmers continue to adjust their plans.

Optimism over U.S. and China trade relations provided some additional support, as the leaders of the two countries are set to meet this week.

CORN also found support from the wet Midwestern weather to end higher.

Corn seeding is likely near completion across the U.S., as it’s getting late to seed the crop and farmers with unseeded corn land have lowered their intentions.

A rally in wheat also provided spillover support for corn.

WHEAT was up across the board, with the largest gains in the Chicago and Kansas City winter wheats.

In addition to U.S. harvest delays due to wet conditions, much of Monday’s strength in wheat stemmed from the hot and dry weather cutting into the production prospects in Europe.

Futures Prices as of June 24, 2019

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Milling Wheat
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New Barley
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Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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