Canadian farmers harvested 9.7 million tonnes of barley in 2025, up from the 2024 crop size of 8.1 million. Barley producers were aggressive sellers at harvest because yields were larger than anticipated. This selling pressure came as domestic feed demand was at a seasonal low during August, September and October. Canadian barley offers off the West Coast were competitive with other major exporters, such as Australia and Europe, for shipment into China and Saudi Arabia.

Canadian crop year-to-date barley exports for the week ending Jan. 4 were 1.4 million tonnes, up from 1.0 million tonnes last year. The export pace for Canadian barley slowed in January because export values were premium to Australia and Argentina. Cattle-on-feed inventories in Western Canada reach seasonal highs over the winter, which causes the domestic to strengthen above world values.

Canadian barley ending stocks for the 2025-26 crop year are projected to finish near 1.5 million tonnes, up from the 2024-25 carryout of 1.2 million tonnes.

Despite the larger ending stocks, we’re expecting the barley market to percolate higher over the next couple of months. Farmer selling tends to slow during road-ban season and the spring seeding period. As well, the fundamentals for the 2026-27 crop year will tighten, and the market will be extremely sensitive to weather.

The Canadian barley market needs to encourage acreage through higher prices. At this stage, our straw-poll survey suggests that farmers will seed 6.15 million acres. Using an average yield of 70 bushels per acre, production will drop to 8.6 million tonnes, which is below the 10-year average. Production below the 10-year average will cause prices to trade above the 10-year average. The barley market cannot afford a crop problem during the 2026 growing season.

We have a bullish outlook for the corn market, which will also be supportive for Canadian barley prices. U.S. feed demand is also running at seasonal highs while ethanol processing is near full capacity. U.S. corn export sales commitments were up 33 per cent from last year during the last week of January.

At the time of writing this article, South American corn production was uncertain. The main corn provinces in Argentina were experiencing drier conditions and above-average temperatures. In Brazil, the bulk of the exportable surplus comes from the second corn crop which is only seeded in February after the soybean harvest. Brazil is currently contending with La Niña conditions, which usually result in warmer and drier conditions. Therefore, the U.S. needs to carry the world on corn until April or May, which is when Brazil’s exportable surplus is available.

It’s also important to remember that U.S. corn acres in 2026 will be down from 2025. In 2025, the U.S. had record yields. At this stage, traders are only factoring in trend or average-type yields. There is a high probability that the U.S. will experience a year-over-year decrease in corn production.

The stronger corn market will be supportive for barley values during the summer. If drier conditions develop in Western Canada, Alberta barley will trade at a premium to imported U.S. corn.

We’ve been advising feedlot operators to extend barley or feed grain coverage into summer. If drier conditions develop in Western Canada or the U.S. Midwest, it will be prudent to extend coverage into new-crop positions. We’re expecting the July corn futures to trade up to the $5 per bushel level during the late spring period. In early February, July corn was around $4.40 per bushel.

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Evan Peterson of JGL Commodities at Moose Jaw, Sask. heard others say their crops were larger than anticipated — but there were additional factors adding pressure on prices.

“Also, corn being substituted for barley brought prices down. (There’s) also a lack of Canadian exports for barley, which is putting pressure on prices, as well. There’s nowhere to go with it (right now),” Peterson said.

The removal of Chinese tariffs on Australian barley last August dried up overseas demand for the Canadian crop, he added. But with the cattle run just starting, there will be some demand at home.

“We’re starting to get more mouths to feed in southern Alberta. I think we’ll see a little pop in demand here, probably over the next month or so. Feeders still seem to be relatively covered here until Christmas and then we’ll start buying for Christmas in the next little while,” Peterson said.

He believes prices have already hit as low as they can go.

“We fell pretty hard. We’ve seen barley drop about $70 per tonne ($1.52 per bushel). So I think (prices) have dropped to a point where we’ve seen farmers move what they had to move to make room and they’re looking now at storing grain to see if prices do come up. It feels like for now, we’ve kind of bottomed out,” he added.

As of Thursday, delivered bids for feed barley in Alberta ranged from $5.75 to $7.62/bu., according to Prairie Ag Hotwire, down 33 cents from last month and down C$1.52 from last year. In Saskatchewan, bids ranged from $5.50 to $5.80/bu., 70 cents less than last month and $1.20 less than one year earlier. In Manitoba, bids ranged from $5.25 to $5.82, down 69 cents from a month ago and down $1.18 from a year ago.

For feed wheat, delivered bids in Alberta were between $7.62 and $9.93/bu., declines of 54 cents from last month and $2.18 from last year. In Saskatchewan, bids went down by 63 cents from last month and $2.88 from last year at $8-$8.88. In Manitoba, there was only one bid at $8.46/bu., down two cents from a month ago and down $2.12 from last year.

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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Wheat has become a more desirable crop for feed rations in recent months as barley prices have risen due to increasing exports to China. With less barley available to feedlots, wheat is stepping in to fill the void.

“They have been very similar in price. They have been holding their own (and might) come up a lot for the later contracts like the April-June movement,” Erin Harakal, senior trader for Agfinity at Stony Plain, Alta. said, adding that prices in the Edmonton area have ranged from $7.50 to $8 per bushel for April-June.

According to Prairie Ag Hotwire data from Thursday, high-delivered bids for feed wheat have run at $7.25/bu. in Saskatchewan, $7.27/bu. in Manitoba and $8.44/bu. in Alberta — at least $1.50 higher than last year in all three provinces.

Harakal also mentioned that No. 1 and 2 grades of wheat with lower protein levels have recently been making their way into feed channels, as feed wheat prices have become comparable to other varieties except durum.

According to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s latest crop outlook released Wednesday, 18.5 million acres of wheat (except durum) are projected to be seeded in Canada this year, down five per cent from 2020.

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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Feed prices were in a steady decline since the cold snap around the beginning of January, he said.

“This week/last week, we haven’t seen the price change too much. I wouldn’t say it’s troughed because I don’t see a lot of upside in the market, but I think it’s relatively stabilized,” he said.

Prairie Ag Hotwire bears that out, with western Canadian feed barley prices remaining steady.

In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, barley prices didn’t change, and ranged from $3.32 to $4.07 per bushel delivered in Saskatchewan. Prices were a little better in Manitoba at $4-$4.15/bu. There was some change in Alberta as barley slipped seven cents, ranging from $3.81 to $4.90/bu. delivered.

It’s a similar story in feed wheat, with no changes over the week in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Wheat delivered in Saskatchewan was $4.92-$5.75/bu and $5.07-$5.10 in Manitoba — but in Alberta there was a 19-cent drop, to $4.93-$6.34/bu.

May is set to be extremely busy, Neumann said, as farmers will be planting and trying to finish off what’s left of last year’s harvest. The quality of that second harvest remains to be seen.

Also, he said, there doesn’t appear to be a premium for June/July feed — at least not at this time.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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Most auction markets resumed their regular sales schedules last week. Buying interest was solid across all weight categories, with stronger demand noted on grass cattle. Colder temperatures across the Prairies capped the upside in the market; temperatures at Lethbridge are expected to dip down to -25 to -30 C this week. South of the border, prices for grassers were sharply higher, which may have contributed to the strength in the eastern Prairies. Feeder cattle futures were up $3-$4 on the week. Much of the Midwest will experience extensive precipitation and overland flooding; therefore, the futures market appears to be incorporating a weather risk premium. Barley prices edged higher last week on limited farmer selling and logistical difficulties.

In central Alberta, larger-frame medium- to heavier-flesh tan steers weighing 915 lbs. were quoted at $189 while 795-lb. Simmental blended steers with medium flesh were valued at $190. June live cattle futures are trading at an $8 discount to the April contract which is reflected in the price structure for heavier feeder cattle. In Manitoba, similar-quality Simmental based steers weighing 875 pounds were quoted at $179.

In east-central Saskatchewan, medium-frame mixed steers with lower butter levels weighing just over 700 lbs. were quoted at $195 and Charolais mixed heifers averaging 740 lbs. were quoted at $173. In southern Manitoba, Charolais-based heifers averaging 800 lbs. were quoted at $172. In the Lethbridge area, black mixed steers weighing 705 lbs. were valued at $200.

In southern Manitoba, Angus-blended steers weighing 530 lbs. were quoted at $235; in central Saskatchewan, mixed steers averaging 510 reached up to $241. Black steers averaging 550 pounds were quoted at $225 in central Alberta while similar-quality heifers averaging 430 dropped the gavel at $219.

The feeder market is in a very precarious situation. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s WASDE (world agricultural supply/demand estimates) report was considered bearish for second-quarter cattle prices due to the sizeable year-over-year increase in beef production. Alberta feedlot operators are content with their current numbers but are anxious to reload given the favourable margin structure.

— Jerry Klassen manages the Canadian office of Swiss-based grain trader GAP SA Grains and Produits Ltd. and is president and founder of Resilient Capital, specializing in proprietary commodity futures trading and market analysis. Jerry consults with feedlots on risk management and writes a weekly cattle market commentary. He can be reached at 204-504-8339 or via his website at ResilCapital.com.

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It appears that the Canadian barley crop will be smaller than earlier anticipated and some of the crop will likely remain in the field over the winter. Lethbridge-area barley prices were quoted from $210 to as high as $220 per tonne delivered last week, up from the range of $190-$200 per tonne during the last week of September.

Adverse weather also contributed to the softer tone, especially on unweaned and unvaccinated calves. The market continues to incorporate a risk discount with buyers factoring in higher deathloss. Feedlot pen conditions across Alberta are very poor after the wet snow and ongoing rains. Feedlot operators are also struggling to finish up corn silage. After a widespread hail storm during the summer, southern Alberta silage costs are rising, adding to the cost per pound gain.

All these factors are coming on the heels of negative feeding margins throughout the summer period.

Yearlings held up in Alberta but were notably lower in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. In central Alberta, mixed medium- to larger-frame with lighter flesh levels averaging just over 900 lbs. were valued at $194 and similar quality heifers weighing 940 lbs. were quoted at $170. In central Saskatchewan, medium- to larger-frame black fleshier steers weighing 920 lbs. were quoted at $185.

Many auction barns held feature calf sales last week in eastern Alberta and Saskatchewan. In southern Saskatchewan, Charolais-based semi weaned calves weighing 610 lbs. were quoted at $215 while Hereford blended heifers averaging 655 lbs. were valued at $183. In central Alberta, vaccinated tan mixed steers weighing 610 lbs. were quoted at $217 while similar-quality heifers weighing 640 lbs. were valued at $190. Southern Alberta feedlot demand for calves was quiet; unweaned bawlers without shots were discounted accordingly.

One bright spot in the cattle complex is that April live cattle futures are now up over $11 from the contract lows. The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its first-quarter beef production estimate on last week’s WASDE report.

— Jerry Klassen manages the Canadian office of Swiss-based grain trader GAP SA Grains and Produits Ltd. and is president and founder of Resilient Capital, specializing in proprietary commodity futures trading and market analysis. Jerry consults with feedlots on risk management and writes a weekly cattle market commentary. He can be reached at 204-504-8339 or via his website at ResilCapital.com.

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“We’ve definitely seen (barley prices) soften up quite a bit,” said grain broker Nelson Neumann of Agfinity at Stony Plain, Alta.

New-crop feed barley is trading at around $210 per tonne delivered into Feedlot Alley in southern Alberta, which compares with pricing near $230 at the end of July. Any old-crop barley left to move is trading at the same levels as the new crop.

Statistics Canada estimated the 2019-20 Canadian barley crop at 9.6 million tonnes in its first survey of the crop year, released Wednesday. That would be up by 15 per cent from the previous year and the largest barley crop since 2013.

After a year of tight supplies and higher prices, Neumann said growers were still selling at the lower price levels. People are realizing that this is the “reality we’re living in for this year,” he added.

Frost damage is also a serious threat to wheat crops this harvest season, especially in northern growing regions where wetness continues to delay development.

As a result, ideas that more wheat will be downgraded this year are pressuring the feed wheat market, said Neumann.

“(The harvest) is still a couple of weeks away, and it’s getting colder every morning.”

With expectations for abundant domestic barley and feed wheat supplies, Neumann expected corn imports from the U.S. would be lower this year.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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Allen Pirness of Market Place Commodities in Lethbridge, Alta., said cattle farmers are “in pretty good shape for old crop grain,” and are “waiting for new crop to hit.”

“It’s taking its toll on prices a little bit, with the expectation of large availability for new crop,” he said.

Nelson Neumann, a grain trader with Agfinity, said “the wheels fell off the bus” for old crop barley recently, as most buyers are content to wait a few weeks until prices are a bit cheaper.

“If you have old crop barley, you should sell it now or be prepared to hold on to it well into next year,” said Neumann.

New crop barley bids are between C$225 and C$230 per tonne, with the expectation that prices will drop off slightly after harvest.

“We can clear a lot of grain at these levels,” said Pirness.

Export demand for Canadian feed barley has remained low, further contributing to lower prices heading into harvest.

Prices for feed wheat are comparable to that of barley, and corn bids are few and far between.

“Corn is a bit of a wild card,” commented Neumann, as domestic feed prices for the upcoming year could depend quite a bit on U.S. corn prices.

“Feeders have pretty much made the switch over to barley,” said Pirness.

Barley prices are expected to remain relatively stable for the foreseeable future.

“If we started seeing prices go much lower, I think farmers would start to hold back on sales,” he remarked.

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Drought conditions earlier in the summer had threatened Prairie crop yields and buoyed feed grain prices, but the weather premium has subsided thanks to recent rains.

“Rain showed us we’ll have a crop,” said Allen Pirness of Market Place Commodities in Lethbridge.

“That’s given some incentive to farmers to sell their old-crop grains.”

Since concerns of shortages are no longer prevalent, old-crop barley prices are in the $270 range in Lethbridge, compared to highs of $290 observed a few weeks earlier.

Feed corn prices have also lowered, due partly to a strong Canadian dollar. U.S. corn prices have dropped due to improved growing conditions in the Midwest.

Corn prices are between $280 and $290, down from previous highs over $300.

Feed wheat prices have also corrected downward from previously-observed highs, following the trend set by barley and corn. A lack of foreign demand for feed wheat has also contributed to softening prices.

Feed wheat was in the $280 range previously, but has settled down to between $260 and $265.

Pirness anticipates wheat and barley stocks to keep corn mostly priced out of the Canadian market.

“There are ample barley and wheat supplies,” he said. “We’ll have to keep the corn out, and that will be achieved by price.”

— Marlo Glass writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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There were two main factors enhancing demand this week. First, U.S. packers started to show some very strong basis levels for the first quarter of 2020. Secondly, new-crop feed barley prices are trading in the range of $225-$240 per tonne delivered Lethbridge, down $40-$50 per tonne from old-crop prices. While nearby margins are in negative territory on unhedged cattle, profitability appears to return late in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2020. Feedlot operators were very anxious to lock in positive margins in the deferred positions.

In central Alberta, medium- to larger-frame tan mixed steers with lower flesh levels averaging 810 lbs. were quoted at $192; mixed heifers weighing 840 lbs. were valued at $162 in the same region. In northern Alberta, larger-frame tan mixed steers averaging just under 700 lbs. were valued at $204 while similar-quality and -weight heifers were quoted from $170 to $173.

In southern Alberta, mixed steers weighing 610 lbs. were valued at $219 landed in the feedlot. Near Lethbridge, steers weighing 500-525 lbs. were valued in the range of $218 to as high as $230. Prices were quite variable across Western Canada on calves under 650 lbs. Prices in Manitoba and Saskatchewan traded at traditional freight spreads to the Alberta market.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s world agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE) report was considered constructive for the beef complex. U.S. third-quarter beef production was lowered by 60 million lbs. and fourth-quarter beef production was adjusted downward by 25 million lbs. U.S. feeder cattle numbers are lower than expected and we expect to see feedlot placements come in below year-ago levels on the June and July Cattle on Feed reports. This fall, Western Canadian yearling numbers are expected to be down four to six per cent from year-ago levels. The commercial trader was a net buyer of feeder cattle futures on the recent commitment of traders’ report. The October contract closed at US$142.85 on Friday, up nearly $4 from seven days earlier. There is some positive fundamental news coming forward in the feeder market.

— Jerry Klassen manages the Canadian office of Swiss-based grain trader GAP SA Grains and Produits Ltd. and is president and founder of Resilient Capital, specializing in proprietary commodity futures trading and market analysis. Jerry consults with feedlots on risk management and writes a weekly cattle market commentary. He can be reached at 204-504-8339 or via his website at ResilCapital.com.

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