The net managed money long position in canola futures came in at 48,915 contracts as of April 22 (83,894 long/34,979 short) — an increase of about 32,000 contracts compared to the previous week.

Open interest in the canola market was up by 14,198 contracts on the week at 211,810 contracts.

At the Chicago Board of Trade, the net long position in soybeans of about 53,200 contracts increased by 10,000 contracts from the previous week. Meanwhile, the net long position in soyoil was up 11,000 at about 55,700 contracts.

The net long position in corn was down by about 13,000 contracts to come in at roughly 132,400.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of 81,600 contracts. The net short in hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 51,600 contracts. In MIAX spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a net short of around 16,600 contracts as of April 22.

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The net managed money short position in canola futures came in at 115,643 contracts as of Dec. 3 (9,546 long/125,189 short), up by roughly 31,000 contracts from the previous week. Open interest in the canola market climbed by 24,768 on the week at 298,227 contracts.

At the Chicago Board of Trade, the net short position in soybeans was down by about 13,000 contracts to come in at around 45,500. Meanwhile, the net long position in soyoil was down by about 14,000 contracts, at 7,300.

The net long position in corn was down by 10,000 contracts to come in at roughly 73,200.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of 70,900 contracts. The net short in Kansas City hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 39,500 contracts.

In Minneapolis spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a net short of around 32,150 contracts as of Dec. 3. That marked the largest net short in spring wheat on record going back to 2006.

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The November canola contract lost C$23.10 per tonne in that span, while September Chicago soyoil was down by 1.29 U.S. cents per pound.

Ken Ball of Ventum Financial Corp. of Winnipeg said it was a matter of canola prices following the lead of vegetable oils, especially Chicago soyoil.

“Canola did build in a C$50 to C$60 (per tonne) premium during those bad weather stretches in July, but nobody was sure whether to build onto that or not,” said Ken Ball of Ventum Financial Corp. of Winnipeg, adding “it has largely just been following the vegetable oils.”

He said the trade is waiting until the size of this year’s canola crop in Western Canada is determined, which will be another price indicator.

“Nobody’s really too sure how big the crop is. We’re just waiting to see how the crop develops in August,” Ball said.
Canola conditions in Western Canada were very variable, according to him, ranging from 50 per cent losses reported in parts of Alberta to good to excellent conditions in Manitoba.

While weather could still have an effect on the canola crop, swathing has already begun in some canola fields. As a result, movement in vegetable oil prices will have the greater effect in the canola market.

“There’s chatter in the U.S. they might try to block out non-domestic sources of feedstocks for the biofuel industry. If that ever happened, (soyoil) would rally dramatically, but it’s been talked about for months and months,” Ball said.

If Statistics Canada reported this year’s canola crop at 18 million tonnes in its principal field crop estimates later this month, there will be an adequate supply with stocks drawn down according to Ball. At 17 million, there “would be a problem.”

But with corn, soybeans and wheat moving lower, Ball said there could be more downside for canola yet.
“It wouldn’t surprise me to see (canola) go a bit lower. The 40 U.S. cents per pound soyoil could hold, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see it go to 35 if it doesn’t get any news to support it,” he said.

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As of July 2, 2024, the net managed money short position in canola futures came in at 134,739 contracts (7,179 long/141,918 short), which was up by roughly 5,000 contracts from the previous week and the largest net short position in the commodity since March. The latest report was delayed due to the recent Independence Day holiday in the United States.

Open interest in the canola market was up by 4,479 contracts on the week at 257,885 contracts.

At the Chicago Board of Trade, the net short position in soybeans was up by about 7,200 contracts to come in at around 133,380 contracts as investors liquidated long positions. Meanwhile, the net short position in soyoil dropped by about 46,000 contracts amid heavy short covering, to come in at roughly 61,400 contracts.

The net short position in corn grew by about 50,000 contracts to come in at its largest level on record at 346,744 contracts.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of 74,000 contracts. The net short in Kansas City hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 43,200 contracts. In Minneapolis spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a net short of 22,455 contracts as of July 2.

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As of May 21, 2024, the net managed money short position in canola futures came in at 58,310 contracts (6,963 long/65,273 short), which was up by roughly 750 contracts from the previous week.

Open interest in the canola market jumped by 13,548 contracts on the week at 260,521 contracts.

At the Chicago Board of Trade, the net short position in soybeans was down by about 14,000 contracts to come in at around 18,000 contracts. Soyoil futures also saw their net short position shrink by about 14,000 contracts at roughly 44,600 contracts.

Meanwhile, the net short position in corn grew for the first time in over a month, coming in at about 115,650 contracts.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of around 26,700 contracts. The net short in Kansas City hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 16,300 contracts. In Minneapolis spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a small net long of around 4,200 contracts.

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As of April 2, 2024, the net managed money short position in canola futures came in at 89,739 contracts (8,146 long/97,885 short), which was down by roughly 6,000 contracts from the previous week.

Open interest in the canola market was down by 5,442 contracts on the week at 288,530 contracts.

At the Chicago Board of Trade, the net short position in soybeans was up by about 4,000 contracts to come in at around 127,000 contracts. Soyoil futures saw the recently established net long grow to just over 7,000 contracts from only 131 contracts the previous week.

The net short position in corn held relatively steady, increasing by about 4,500 contracts on the week to come in at roughly 250,000 contracts.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of about 91,000 contracts, which was steady with the previous week. The net short in Kansas City hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 40,800 contracts. In Minneapolis spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a net short of around 28,600 contracts.

—Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.

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As of March 19, 2024, the net managed money short position in canola futures came in at 124,887 contracts (6,491 long/131,378 short), which was down by roughly 11,000 contracts from the previous week and the smallest short position in two months.

Open interest in the canola market was up 5,410 contracts on the week at 300,421 contracts.

At the Chicago Board of Trade, the net short position in soybeans decreased by about 8,000 contracts to come in at around 138,600 contracts.

The net short position in corn also lost about 8,000 contracts on the week to come in at roughly 244,200 contracts.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of about 81,200 contracts. The net short in Kansas City hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 37,300 contracts. In Minneapolis spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a net short of around 22,800 contracts.

—Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg. 

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The oilseed continued its month-long rise during the week ended March 20, gaining more than C$70 per tonne since late February. The May contract hit its highest price since Jan. 4 at C$650/tonne before closing at C$648.60 on March 20, a weekly gain of C$23.60.

Winnipeg-based commodities investment advisor David Derwin from PI Financial said a combination of the funds covering some of canola’s record net short position, other grains breaking their own trends and the start of spring has fueled canola’s breakthrough to the upside.

“As we come into the end of March, we begin a seasonal period, which can keep going until May, June or July,” he added. “We are just seeing a reversal of all that trading behaviour.”

Derwin also considered recent rises in Chicago soyoil as well as palm oil futures as supportive factors. However, the relatively small size of the canola market compared to other vegetable oils can create sharper price increases or declines.

“If funds need to exit out of soybeans, they can do a lot of buying before it can cause much change in price, whereas with canola, it just takes a little bit of buying because it’s so much smaller,” he said. “Palm oil has helped. Soyoil has helped. But canola, in many ways, is doing a good chunk on its own.”

Any news that can affect canola’s current trajectory may not occur before the oilseed rises close to C$700 per tonne in the next few weeks, according to Derwin. Whether it will reach that mark is anyone’s guess.

“All that means is that there’s not a lot of price resistance until we get into some of those higher levels,” he said.

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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As of March 12, 2024, the net managed money short position in canola futures came in at 135,813 contracts (7,098 long/142,911 short), which was down by roughly 18,000 contracts from the record-large net short position posted the previous week.

Open interest in the canola market was down by 8,505 contracts on the week at 295,011 contracts.

At the Chicago Board of Trade, the net short position in soybeans decreased by about 13,700 contracts due to a combination of short covering and new longs going on the books, coming in at around 146,600 contracts.

Meanwhile, the net short position in corn lost about 33,000 contracts on the week to come in at roughly 252,300 contracts.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of about 78,600 contracts. The net short in Kansas City hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 34,800 contracts. In Minneapolis spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a net short of around 21,800 contracts.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg. 

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As of March 5, 2024, the net managed money short position in canola futures came in at 153,833 contracts (7,160 long/160,993 short), which was up by roughly 3,800 contracts from the previous week and a new record.

Open interest in the canola market was up by 12,307 contracts on the week at 303,516 contracts.

At the Chicago Board of Trade, the net short position in soybeans increased by about 9,000 contracts on the week to it hits highest level in nearly five years at around 160,300 contracts.

Meanwhile, the net short position in corn lost about 2,000 contracts on the week to come in at roughly 285,800 contracts.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of about 64,800 contracts. The net short in Kansas City hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 40,000 contracts. In Minneapolis spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a net short of around 24,200 contracts.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg. 

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