That would also be good for Canadian grain and oilseed prices if it happens.

The highest corn prices so far this year occurred during the first two days of January, and they have been heading lower since.

The odds of those prices remaining that high through spring is slim based on data compiled from the last couple of decades, according to Ed Usset, grain marketing economist with the University of Minnesota.

“In 16 of 20 years the corn market found a way to take out those highs set in January,” he told delegates attending the 2024 Commodity Classic.

Soybean prices are less reliable than corn, but there is also a good chance that market will take out the January high. It has done so in 17 of the last 20 years.

So, is corn heading back to US$5 per bushel?

“I don’t guarantee anything, but I think this is strong evidence that it could happen,” said Usset.

He has “no clue” what could cause the rally. He could offer up 10 reasons and it would be the 11th that would trigger the bull run.

But the upshot is that farmers with unpriced corn or soybeans in their bins might want to hold on a little longer and wait for better prices this spring.

He also thinks there is reason to be long-term bullish on grains and oilseeds because of the exploding renewable diesel industry.

Sixteen proposed new U.S. soybean crush plants will create more than 600 million bushels of new annual demand for the crop.

“I know things feel very bearish right now, but I like to think there is potential for this to create some turmoil in the market,” said Usset.

“This is an echo of the boom that occurred 15 years ago in the ethanol industry.”

That boom bolstered the price of corn, which in turn elevated prices for soybeans, wheat and just about every other crop farmers grow.

That begs the question — should farmers change their marketing strategy once the return to a bull markets arrives?

The short answer is no, said Usset.

He is a firm believer in growers knowing their cost of production and pricing 80 percent of their grain with pre- and post-harvest marketing efforts rather than accepting the harvest price.

Iowa corn growers who used that strategy achieved an average 37 cent per bu. premium over growers who took the harvest price between 1989 and 2002.

“That’s 37 cents a bu. on every bushel of corn produced over a 34-year period,” said Usset.

“You can see the advantage of pulling together pre- and post-harvest marketing.”

For soybeans, the advantage was nearly $1 per bu. and for hard red spring wheat in the Red River Valley it was 27 cents.

Usset analyzed the same data during the “golden age” of the ethanol boom between 2007 and 2013, comparing it to the seven-year periods before and after the boom.

The average price of Iowa corn during the seven-year boom was higher than the maximum price in the seven-years before and after the boom.

“That’s some good times,” he said.

The important thing to note is that the grower who used pre- and post-harvest marketing strategies outperformed those who took the harvest price in all three of those periods, said Usset.

—Sean Pratt writes for the Western Producer.

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He is not alone.

Farmers across the United States are kicking themselves for putting off corn sales after fields dried up in May and June, fueling expectations for higher prices and smaller harvests. Instead, prices tanked as rains saved the crop. The size and speed of the price collapse stung farmers and left their storage bins stuffed with record amounts of corn.

The steepest market downturn in a decade in 2023 has extended into 2024, hurting the U.S. rural economy. Two years of high prices and tight crop supplies spurred by unfavorable global weather and disruption from the Ukraine war have been quickly reversed.

Record-large harvests in the United States and Brazil, increased competition for U.S. grain exports, and limited domestic demand led to hefty amounts of corn locked away in storage, pushing U.S. corn prices to their lowest level since November 2020 on Wednesday.

Corn is the world’s most traded commodity crop and often sets the tone for other crops. Soybeans, too, plummeted to their lowest prices in more than three years in February.

Ten farmers, economists and market analysts said U.S. growers miscalculated when they held on to corn rather than booking sales. The “store and ignore” strategy of waiting for higher prices has not paid off, leaving some farmers cutting back purchases of pricey equipment and planting less corn. The interviews also demonstrate the tricky decisions farmers face when determining when to sell in the face of potential crop losses.

Corn futures prices Cv1 that approached $6.30 a bushel in June have since tumbled to $4.10, after U.S. farmers ultimately produced record crop yields.

“I wish I sold a lot more,” Henebry said.

U.S. growers held a whopping 7.83 billion bushels of corn in storage bins on their farms as of Dec. 1, the most ever for that date and up 16 per cent from a nine-year low in December 2022, U.S. government data show. Globally, leftover inventories are projected to reach a five-year high by September after accounting for all the corn used to feed livestock, make biofuels and other purposes.

Henebry said he still has about 40 per cent of his 2023 harvest in storage, including 30,000 bushels on his farm in central Illinois. He is paying 3 to 4 cents per bushel a month to keep another 30,000 bushels at a local grain elevator. In a normal year, he would not have any still stored there, he said.

Before prices plunged last summer, Henebry said he sold some corn for $5.50 to $5.70 per bushel and then for as much as $6.21 per bushel delivered to the grain elevator. He held off on further sales because he was counting on poor weather to reduce production and boost prices.

Prices tumbled, though, and Henebry said he sold corn in December for $4.60 per bushel. He wishes he would have unloaded even more at that price.

Prices will come under renewed pressure as farmers do sell the grain they have in storage, analysts said.

“Any sort of little rally, there’s going to be a lot of corn sold,” said Henebry.

‘I’ll just give up’

Fred Huddlestun, a farmer in Yale, Illinois, said he still had his entire 2023 corn harvest in storage last month: about 39,000 bushels at an elevator and 25,000 bushels at home. Prices never reached targets he set to make sales last year, even as he lowered them.

Huddlestun could have earned roughly $360,000 if he had struck deals to sell 64,000 bushels just after Easter; $382,000 around Father’s Day in June; and $307,000 on Halloween, based on Chicago Board of Trade corn futures that represented last autumn’s crop. At current prices, his grain is worth about $263,000. Futures and cash prices often differ by a few cents.

“I kept thinking the market would go up,” Huddlestun said. “I’ll just give up eventually and start selling if nothing happens.”

Huddlestun said he should have sold around $5.50 a bushel. Though all operations are different, breakeven prices for corn growers in central Illinois were about $5.27 a bushel in 2023, including costs for land and other expenses, according to University of Illinois estimates.

Farmers have the space to squirrel away crops after increasing their storage capacity by 24 per cent over the last two decades to 13.6 billion bushels. Storing grain gives farmers more control over when and how they sell, to avoid prices that are typically low at harvest time and to best take advantage of spikes in futures. At grain elevators and other commercial handlers, off-farm storage capacity has increased by 40 per cent to 11.9 billion bushels over the past 20 years, according to U.S. government data.

High interest rates make storage more costly because farmers’ crops are tied up in bins rather than sold to reduce debt, economists said.

In southern Illinois, the second biggest corn-producing state, farmers could actually lose up to $160 an acre growing corn this year, based on corn prices and the cost of production, University of Illinois economists said in a January report. Two years ago, profits reached about $340 an acre.

Such expected losses are rippling through rural America. Net farm income in 2024 is projected to suffer the largest year-to-year dollar decrease in history, the American Farm Bureau Federation, an industry group, said in a report this month.

Deere & Co, the world’s largest farm equipment maker, expects sales of large agricultural equipment to decline 20 per cent this year, due to lower commodity prices and high interest rates.

‘Plenty of corn’

In Wamego, Kansas, Glenn Brunkow, a fifth-generation crop and livestock farmer, plans to delay upgrades to machinery and may try to repair equipment himself, rather than paying a dealership.

“We’re tightening expenses as much as we can,” he said. “We’re trying to limp through putting off some expansion with the livestock, just trying to limp by.”

Early forecasts show U.S. farmers are likely to cut back on corn planting and favor soybeans in 2024. They may struggle to turn a profit with either crop.

Brunkow said he plans to forgo corn planting entirely and grow some sorghum, which requires less fertilizer and has less expensive seeds than corn. Sorghum can be used to make ethanol, feed livestock or be exported to China to make baiju liquor.

Years ago, Brunkow gave up on growing sorghum because it produces lower yields and is difficult to dry at harvest time.

Now, “the economics just are better,” he said. “You’re going to lose less money.”

Analysts do not expect a major bump in demand to draw down corn stockpiles. U.S. exports of agricultural and related products fell 10 per cent by value in 2023 to a three-year low, as plentiful supplies from Brazil and elsewhere challenged U.S. export sales.

Demand from the U.S. meat industry, which feeds corn to livestock, is limited as pig farmers face lackluster pork demand while cattle ranchers slashed their herds due to drought in the Great Plains.

Biofuel demand, which typically accounts for about one-third of U.S. corn production, also worries Rod Weinzierl, executive director of the Illinois Corn Growers Association, as Americans buy more electric vehicles.

“This year every fork in the road has been bearish,” said Matt Wiegand, commodity broker for risk management firm FuturesOne in Nebraska.

—Additional reporting for Reuters by Julie Ingwersen in Chicago.

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The attaché pegged Argentina’s 2023/24 wheat harvest at 15.40 million tonnes. While thanks to El Nino rains it was a significant improvement over the drought-stricken crop of 12 million tonnes the year before, it was well short of the 22.15 million harvested in 2021/22.

Wheat exports also dramatically improved, going from 3.66 million tonnes in 2022/23 to now 10.20 million, according to the Buenos Aires desk. But again, short of the 16 million tonnes in 2021/22. Meanwhile, 2023/24 ending stocks dropped to 1.62 million tonnes from the 3.32 million the previous year. Those for 2021/22 were 1.93 million tonnes.

The USDA attaché placed Argentina’s 2023/24 corn production at 57 million tonnes, up sharply from the 35 million the previous year due to the El Nino. This year’s output also exceeded the 52 million in 2021/22.

The country’s corn exports tallied 41 million tonnes in 2023/24 compared to the 23.40 million in 2022/23, but short of the 38.85 million in 2021/22.

The attaché forecast corn ending stocks for 2023/24 at 2.62 million tonnes, from the previous year’s 1.41 million, but still lower than the 4.30 million in 2021/22.

Going into the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on Feb. 8, the average trade guess for Argentina’s corn crop came in at 55.59 million tonnes, up 590,000 from the department’s January report. However, there has been some consternation within the markets that the recent hot spell in Argentina might have eroded potential corn yields with the crop being in a critical stage of its development.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg. 

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As of Dec. 5, 2023, the net managed money short position in canola futures came in at 94,912 (6,508 long/101,420 short), which compares with 81,770 from the previous week.

Open interest in the canola market came in at 271,839 contracts, which was up by 15,276 on the week.

At the Chicago Board of Trade, a combination of long liquidation and new shorts going on the books saw the net long in soybeans fall to roughly 37,700 from 71,100 the previous week.

Meanwhile, corn traders were on the other side of the market, with the net short there falling by about 55,000 contracts to come in at about 156,800 contracts.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of about 100,500 contracts. The net short in Kansas City hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 38,400 contracts. In Minneapolis spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a net short of around 27,100 contracts.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.

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“We’re getting some pressure in these markets because of the harvest pace that’s going on for the U.S. producer. So farmers are out there, they’re getting their work done,” said Steve Georgy, president of Allendale Inc.

While the soybean harvest is behind schedule compared to years past, yields are looking good still. The market has also seen some pressure from the ongoing trade war between the United States and China. Some large sales of soybeans were also cancelled during the last week.

“All that compiled together is what’s keeping beans about where they’re at. November beans around US$8.50 a bushel is kind of a happy spot. If we go much below that we see demand start to kick in…but much above that you’ve got producers selling and able to take advantage of a little bit higher prices,” Georgy said.

The market should be choppy for the rest of the week though as traders adjust their positions before the November contract expires.

“Overall harvest is going to keep any kind of big rally from happening at this point unless we see something done with trade,” Georgy said.

The CBOT corn market is currently stuck in a sideways pattern with the lows already priced in, according to Georgy. He expects the market to chop around at the US$3.70 per bushel mark.

“Any time you get a big bounce for corn or you see that move higher it’s met with selling because farmers need to find a home for (the crop),” Georgy said. The U.S. corn harvest is just over 50 per cent complete and farmers could be looking to sell some of the crop as it comes off the combine.

The corn market though could find itself being influenced by the wheat market. The CBOT wheat market is currently range bound at around the US$5 per bushel mark and if the export pace picks up Georgy thinks that it could move higher.

“If we can get the wheat market to jump higher that may influence that corn to push a little bit higher as well,” he said.

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“(The report is) a big one. I guess most (people are) and I am too looking for a little bit bearish numbers again,” said Scott Capinegro at Highland Trading.

The USDA reports are due out Jan. 12 and cover a variety of topics including crop production numbers, grain stocks, winter wheat acres, price forecasts and international supply and demand estimates. According to Capinegro the reports could have an effect on the markets as trade has been quiet to start off the year.

“We have more funds short than we did last year,” he said, noting that market participants were still trying to break down what those numbers mean.

Seasonally there is usually a bounce in the corn and soybean markets in January and February. However Capinegro thinks the trading range will be tight to start off the year.

“If we do make new lows that could be a buy area again for a bounce, but when you buy these rallies they haven’t fared very well the last couple of months. So you’ve got to be patient and wait for a break,” he said.

As well with the start of the New Year traders are beginning to look towards this year’s growing season and are paying attention to drought maps and forecasts. According to Capinegro there are still chances for spring rains and hopefully above average temperatures heading into April.

“To me that would be a little bit of a signal that something’s going on with the weather here. We’ve had five years in a row that corn has closed lower for the year so I mean things are setting up for a rally,” he said.

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There are four main factors that will cause barley prices to strengthen over the winter. First, approximately 65 per cent of the barley seeded in Western Canada is of malt varieties. Growing and harvest conditions were quite favourable this year, and according to the industry estimates approximately 50 per cent of the crop is malt quality. Farmers with malt quality barley are not willing to sell into feed channels and hold out for higher malt barley prices.

Second, the approximately 90 per cent of the Canadian wheat crop will grade in the top two milling categories. Last year, there was a fair amount of feed wheat and feed durum trading into feed channels. Farmers holding high-quality milling wheat appear to be holding out for higher prices rather than selling into the domestic feed market. Third, domestic feed demand increases over the winter. Cattle-on-feed numbers in Alberta and Sask­­­atch­ewan reach a seasonal high in mid-December and then again in April.

Given the tighter Canadian feed barley supplies, the domestic market needs to trade at a premium to the world market to limit offshore movement. At major seaports, export values are US$25 to as much as US$50 above year-ago levels. Russian and Ukraine feed barley is offered at US$193/MT fob the Black Sea while French feed barley is offered US$195/MT fob the Atlantic Coast. Canadian domestic prices are only a small premium above world values so the strength in the export market will continue to support Alberta feed prices.

While the market is bullish for barley, it’s bearish for corn prices. The USDA estimated average corn yields at 175.4 bushels per acre, which is a record. Despite the year-over-year decline in acreage, total beginning supplies are estimated at 16.9 billion bushels, about the same as last year. Without going into details of demand, the 2017-18 U.S. corn carry-out is projected to finish at 2.5 billion bushels, up from 2.3 billion bushels last year and up from the five-year average of 1.6 billion bushels. Over the winter, the U.S. corn market will function to encourage demand through lower prices.

Readers may remember that South America is coming off record corn production resulting in a year-over-year increase in their exportable surplus. We’re seeing more competition in the world market, which makes Canada a logical home for U.S. corn. It’s interesting to note that on the recent USDA report, North Dakota yields were increased from 126 bushels per acre to 134 bushels per acre. The drought hurt the wheat crop but not the corn. Western Canada is a major outlet for U.S. corn in the Northern Plains. The Mississippi closes in the northern areas over the winter due to freeze-up. Currently, Brazil and Argentina growing conditions are quite favourable and additional rain is in the forecast. Remember, their harvest is in April and May so this will keep the market on the defensive. One caveat on the corn market is the fact that ethanol demand is coming in larger than anticipated. This can sometimes underpin the market regardless how burdensome the carry-out Another factor to consider is the Canadian dollar. If the Canadian dollar weakens, this would be bullish for feed grains in Western Canada.

In conclusion, feed barley supplies in Western Canada are historically tighter while the U.S. corn carry-out for 2017-18 will be sharply above the five-year average. The barley market needs to ration demand by trading at a significant premium to imported U.S. corn values. This will cause Alberta and Saskatchewan feedlots to switch over to U.S. corn.

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Any strength was largely tied to chart-based speculative buying, with no real fresh fundamental news as far as canola is concerned. The harvest is largely complete across Western Canada, while the U.S. harvest is in its final stages.

Farmers were still making good deliveries into the commercial pipeline in the latest weekly data, and the ample nearby supplies should be keeping a bit of a lid on the market. While those off-the-combine deliveries will now be slowing down, end users are looking comfortable for the time being with little reason to bid up the market.

Producers delivered just under 400,000 tonnes of canola during the week ended November 12, taking visible stocks to 1.4 million tonnes, according to the latest Canadian Grain Commission data. Exports were off the record level posted the previous week, with adverse weather at the West Coast likely causing some delays.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada released updated supply/demand tables during the week, but left their projections for canola unchanged with a carryout of one million tonnes projected for 2017/18. That would compare with the 1.3 million tonnes carried forward from 2016/17. The one million tonne mark is considered a bit of a tipping point for canola, with anything below that considered tight. As a result, future adjustments to the supply/demand balance will be followed closely.

Statistics Canada releases its final survey-based production estimates of the year on December 6, which should provide a clearer picture on the available supplies for marketing this year.

Looking ahead, basis opportunities are a possibility, but the futures might just keep grinding along within their sideways range until a fresh spark comes to move values one way or the other.

In the U.S., soybeans and corn also saw some choppy activity during the week, with the bias pointed lower for the most part before Friday’s corrective bounce.

Corn futures touched fresh contract lows during the week, and could still have more room to the downside. However, about five to ten per cent of the U.S. corn crop is still waiting to be harvested, with quality and yield downgrades a possibility in some cases.

Soybeans hit their weakest levels in a month during the week, but bounced off of those lows as fund traders squared positions.

Attention in both markets is now shifting to South America, where weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina have the potential to pull prices one way or the other.

The U.S. Thanksgiving holiday takes place on Thursday, November 23, and U.S. markets will close early on Wednesday and only see sporadic activity on Friday as participants digest their turkey. The holiday trade could lead to some choppiness and price swings.

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The U.S. Agriculture Department in its monthly supply and demand report said the bumper corn harvest will raise stockpiles of the yellow grain even as exports and usage from the feed sector rise from its previous estimates for the 2017/18 marketing year.

In its crop production report, USDA also trimmed its estimate of the soybean harvest from its October outlook. Despite the cut, soybean production was still expected to come in as the biggest ever.

USDA pegged the corn crop at 14.578 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 175.4 bushels per acre. That compares with its October production outlook of 14.280 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 171.8 bushels per acre.

Analysts had been expecting a corn production figure between 14.250 billion bushels and 14.459 billion bushels, based on estimates given in a Reuters survey. Analysts’ yield estimates ranged from 171.7 bushels per acre to 174.0 bushels per acre.

If realized, the government’s corn yield projection would top the previous record of 174.6 bushels per acre reached in 2016.

In Iowa and Illinois, the two largest production states for corn, USDA boosted its average yield by 6 bushels per acre from its October estimate.

For soybeans, USDA pegged the crop at 4.425 billion bushels, topping the average of analysts’ estimates but in line with forecasts that ranged from 4.375 billion bushels to 4.467 billion bushels.

USDA left its soybean yield projection at 49.5 bushels per acre, unchanged from October. Analysts, on average, had expected a soybean yield of 49.3 bushels per acre.

U.S ending stocks of corn were seen at 2.487 billion bushels, 147 million bushels higher than the October view. USDA raised both exports and usage from the feed and residual sector by 75 million bushels.

USDA pegged soybean ending stocks at 425 million bushels, down 5 million form October due to the cut to the production forecast.

For wheat, USDA lowered its ending stocks view by 25 million bushels to 935 million bushels. It raised its export outlook by 25 million bushels to 1.0 billion due to recent sales of hard red winter wheat to Iraq.

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China announced last week it will stop its corn stockpiling program and allow markets to set prices — a move that should transform the agricultural landscape as farmers shift to more lucrative crops like soybeans, rice and peanuts.

Rising demand for a protein-rich diet in China has since 2001 triggered a sixfold jump in imports of soybeans, which are crushed to make soymeal, an animal feed ingredient, and cooking oil.

Higher output in China, the world’s top soybean importer, will hit farmers in top producers Brazil, the U.S. and Argentina. The trio have presided over a soybean boom, helping nearly double world production over 15 years.

“We calculated and to grow soybeans would give better returns than corn which gives no profit after the price drop,” said Wang, who has grown only corn on his 16.5-acre farm for years in Hule village in Heilongjiang.

“Soy prices have picked up and with government soy subsidies, we may be able to make 700-800 yuan (C$141-$161) per hectare,” said Wang, adding that around a third of farmers in his village had plans to shift to soy.

Wang said farmers did not know what subsidies Beijing would provide instead of a guaranteed price if they grew corn, but he was confident corn prices would fall.

In 2016, China’s soybean output is expected to rise by up to two million tonnes and increase faster in future years with improved seed technology and a bigger acreage, analysts and traders said.

“Many farmers plan to shift to grow rice and peanuts, about 10 per cent of the farmland would be shifted to soybean,” said Wang Fuqing, head of the Hule Modern Agricultural Machinery Co-operative.

China’s support for corn saw the area under cultivation hit 37 million hectares last year, up from 23 million hectares in 2001, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data.

In contrast, soybeans was grown on 6.8 million hectares in 2015, down from 9.3 million hectares 15 years ago.

“We know that soybeans and corn compete for acreage, so China’s support for corn prices pushed all those soybean acres into corn as it made more profit to grow corn,” said Adam Davis, head of commodities at Merricks Capital, a Melbourne-based agricultural fund.

“If it goes back to free market you could certainly see acreage go back to soybeans.”

Farmers are expected to make a bigger shift next year as corn falls nearer international prices. Corn has traded at an almost 50 per cent premium to world prices in China.

A shift of one to two million hectares to soybeans from corn would be the equivalent of a month’s soybean imports for China, said Ken Morrison, a former Cargill executive who publishes a commodity newsletter.

“I think the attention to the impact on global corn is overdone, and I think the attention to the implications of what it will mean to Chinese soybean production is under appreciated,” Morrison said.

Cotton shows the way

China, which ended price support for cotton in 2014, is forecast to see cotton acreage decline to 3.4 million hectares in 2015-16 from 5.5 million hectares in 2011-12, USDA data shows.

Cotton imports have dropped while the gap between international and domestic prices has narrowed since Beijing stopped paying prices well above the global market.

There could also be scope to improve soybean yields, including by using genetically modified organisms. Though Beijing has been cautious so far, ChemChina’s US$43 billion purchase of Swiss seeds and pesticides company Syngenta could bring Chinese planting of GMO soybeans closer.

China produces 1.8 tonnes of soybeans per hectare, well below the 3.2 tonnes of output in the U.S.

Boosted by GMOs, annual global soybean output has jumped nearly two-and-half times to 319 million tonnes since 1980.

Flood of DDGs

A move to liquidate massive corn stockpiles will also disrupt meal and vegetable oil trading in China and Asia, said grains analyst Roy Huckabay at Chicago brokerage the Linn Group.

China is sitting on close to 250 million tonnes of corn, enough to fill Beijing’s Bird’s Nest stadium around 34 times.

If lower-quality grain from state reserves is processed for ethanol, the market would be flooded with byproduct distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGs), he said.

Some farmers were taking a cautious approach before switching crops, said a local government official at Tailai county in Heilongjiang.

“Many farmers are holding a wait-and-see attitude because some are still hoping that corn prices may rise again and they are waiting to see how much subsidy the government offers.”

— Reporting for Reuters by Naveen Thukral in Singapore and Niu Shuping in Beijing. Additional reporting for Reuters by Tom Polansek and Karl Plume in Chicago.

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