Feed barley in Lethbridge was selling for C$295 to C$300 per tonne for May and June delivery, up C$5 from two weeks earlier, said Brandon Motz, owner and manager of CorNine Commodities in Lacombe, Alta. He also heard offers of up to C$310/tonne. Meanwhile, feed wheat was selling at C$305 to C$310/tonne.

“There still seems to be some very aggressive bids (for feed barley) from the line companies,” Motz said. “Actual feedlot demand is below average this time of year, but there are a lot of moving factors.”

• For daily market updates, visit the Western Producer Markets Desk

As barley and wheat move through the markets, rising corn prices have weakened demand for the crop.

“Corn is trickling into the market. There is some feeding corn. Corn has always kind of been in the background, but there’s not a lot of volume. Corn prices have rallied up too. So they’ve stayed out of reach,” Motz said.

Rising fuel prices, brought on by the war in Iran, have tightened margins for grain companies and railways, resulting in surcharges and higher freight rates. Motz added that they are affecting growers’ bottom lines as well.

“That’s quite a jump if you didn’t have your spring needs already booked,” he said. “It’s definitely something to be watched and unfortunately not a lot can be done to manage that risk. The bid offer spread has to be adjusted to compensate for fuel prices.”

Where grain prices could go is hard to determine, but Motz believes there will be little movement in the near term.

“It’s safe to assume that prices will remain in this area for the next week at least. There’s nothing to suggest that anything should change,” he said. “But at the same time, this market has been one tweet way from dramatic correction on either side … We need some global shifts to take place before any of the markets come off their highs at this point.”

Prairie Ag Hotwire reported that delivered feed barley prices in Alberta ranged from C$5.01 to C$6.75 per bushel on April 6, steady from the week before. In Saskatchewan, they were also steady, ranging from C$5.12 to C$5.45/bu. In Manitoba, prices were up 25 cents at C$4.77 to C$5/bu.

Feed wheat prices in Alberta were from C$6.18 to C$8.38/bu., down three cents. Manitoba’s feed wheat price was C$6.45, up 13 cents, while Saskatchewan’s was steady at C$7.30/bu.

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JBS workers strike in Colorado

Beef packers have scaled back production in recent weeks and traders are monitoring developments at a large JBS meatpacking plant in Greeley, Colo., where workers have gone on strike.

The dispute reduces U.S. beef production capacity at a time when consumers face record prices for hamburgers and steaks and Trump has struggled to make good on a pledge to cool costs.

The workers have launched a two-week strike and will remain on the picket lines until JBS negotiates fairly with workers, according to the union.

Beef prices soared after a years-long drought burned up grazing lands and drove ranchers to slash their herds to the lowest level in 75 years.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange April live cattle settled 2.35 cents higher at 233.25 cents per pound (USD). April feeders finished up 12.30 cents at 355.45 cents per pound.

Beef packer margins rose to US$57.10 per head on Monday, up from gains of $45.20 on Friday, and losses of $117.95 a week ago, according to livestock marketing advisory service HedgersEdge.

CME lean hog futures ended up 0.05 cents at 93.50 cents per pound.

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Terry Reilly, an independent analyst, said soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade is the commodity most closely following the lead of crude oil, with the latter almost touching US$120 per barrel earlier this week. The May soyoil contract closed at 67.16 U.S. cents per pound on March 11, up 3.57 cents or 5.6 per cent from the week before.

While corn, soybean and wheat prices won’t be as closely tied to crude oil as soyoil, Reilly said their movement will still be determined elsewhere.

“The outside markets will continue to drive the markets for at least until when the conflict starts to wind down,” he added. “Fertilizer is going to be heavily impacted and it will drive up the costs for farmers across the globe. It’s shifting some ideas and we could see less acres go into the ground this spring across North America.”

There was also speculation the United States Environmental Protection Agency may submit its 2026 renewal fuel standard later this week, which could increase the need for corn (ethanol) and soybeans (biodiesel). However, Reilly doesn’t anticipate any increased demand.

“Currently, the prices of some of the feed stocks like canola oil going to California or (used cooking oil) and tallow, their prices are at a discount to soybean oil,” he explained. “I don’t see any greater demand for alternative fuel sources, but no doubt we’ll probably be blending as much ethanol as we can.”

Reilly added he was surprised to see the U.S. Department of Agriculture trim projected soyoil use for biofuel by 800 million pounds at 14 billion in its monthly supply/demand estimates released on March 10. But there were little changes to projected U.S. corn, soybean and wheat stocks. While Reilly thought corn and soybean exports were “on the low side”, he believes the trade is more focused on new crop plantings.

“We still have several months to go until the end of the regular crop year,” Reilly said. “But either way, U.S. soybean stocks are expected to be pretty tight at the end of the season as China continues to buy U.S. beans.”

The war in Iran will continue to leave the trade guessing and keep prices higher, Reilly stated, adding that some analysts believe crude oil could surpass US$150/barrel. However, prices should stabilize once the war ends.

“I think after things start to cool down a little bit, I’d look for prices to get lower,” he said.

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Scott Capinegro, hedging specialist for AgMarket.net, said May corn was approaching a February low but is setting itself up for a March rally. As for wheat, he said funds were short and technicals were conducive for rallies the past week.

Soybeans’ rise can be attributed to rallying soyoil, of which the May contract had a weekly gain of 1.58 cents per pound. But the White House is expected to announce its biodiesel fuel blend in the coming days.

“That one could end up being ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact,’” he said. “We’re racing to meet a self-imposed deadline by the end of March. We’ve already put that rally into the market.”

Exports also should be giving support to corn and soybeans, said Capinegro.

“The corn exports continue to be good, but the corn market does act sloppy. We are breaking to the lower end of the range (in March corn). As for soybeans, it’s China, China, China,” he said, adding that the U.S. is waiting for Lunar New Year celebrations to end before shipping more beans to China.

The United States Department of Agriculture will host its 2026 Agricultural Outlook Forum from Feb. 19 to 20 in Arlington, Va. Capinegro said many are expecting projected corn acres to be trimmed while those for soybeans are raised. However, one grain’s loss could benefit two major crops.

“Are they taking into consideration (the loss) of a lot of rice acres down south?” he said. “They’re going into corn and beans.”

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Farmers expect corn, the most widely grown U.S. crop, to hew close to break-even levels this year, supported by strong usage. Some see soybeans as riskier, given rising competition from Brazil and a volatile U.S. trade relationship with top buyer China.

“Right now, you absolutely cannot make money on beans,” said Tim Gregerson, who farms in eastern Nebraska. “You can probably break even on corn, but you are going to have to have an extraordinary yield, or a price increase,” Gregerson said.

Most growers in America’s Midwest farm belt grow both crops, alternating what gets planted on each field from year to year to boost soil health. Many add wheat, sorghum, cotton or other crops to their rotations. But among farmers who have some flexible acres where they can plant anything, many see corn as their best bet.

USDA revisions add challenges

Planting decisions for 2026, hashed out in the winter months, mark the first step in determining the amount of grain produced in the world’s largest corn exporting nation and the second-biggest soybean supplier after Brazil.

Decisions are particularly challenging this year after the U.S. Agriculture Department made unprecedented revisions in January to its estimate of the last season’s harvested corn acreage, which, along with larger-than-expected estimates of the 2025 corn yield and stocks on hand as of December 1, pushed down prices.

Ahead of the USDA’s annual outlook forum this week, analysts surveyed by Reuters on average projected corn plantings for 2026 at 94.9 million acres, down about four per cent from last year’s 89-year high, but still the second-most corn acres in 13 years. The poll put soybean plantings at 84.9 million acres, in line with the 10-year average and up from the 81 million acres seeded in 2025, a six-year low.

U.S. farmers grew the biggest corn crop in history last year at more than 17 billion bushels, stuffing the nation’s grain bins and weighing on Chicago Board of Trade corn futures.

However, a record pace of export sales and robust demand from ethanol producers has kept a floor under prices as acreage ideas for 2026 take shape.

Even with rising costs for inputs such as seeds and fertilizer, CBOT December corn futures, representing the 2026 harvest, are hovering near $4.60 (C$6.28) a bushel, close to break-even levels for farmers.

“The market is signaling, ‘We don’t want you to cut too many corn acres.’ We don’t need as many as last year, but with today’s demand base, it’s not like we need a huge drop,” said Frayne Olson, an agricultural economist with North Dakota State University.

Pressures in farm country

Some U.S. farmers are struggling to stay solvent, even with increased government aid payments.

Soybeans cost less to grow, and demand from domestic crushers and the burgeoning biofuels industry should help offset diminished export sales due to trade tensions with China, by far the world’s largest buyer. China has purchased 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans since a late-October trade truce.

But prospects of future U.S. soy exports are uncertain ahead of a planned April meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping. Meanwhile, farmers in Brazil have begun to reap a record-large soy harvest that should dominate the global soy trade.

“The soybean market is more of a political football than the corn market right now,” said Dan O’Brien, an economist with Kansas State University.

Big corn yields

Corn typically yields more than triple the grain per acre compared to soybeans. While a large output pressures prices, individual farmers can earn more. Last year’s national corn yield was the highest on record at 186.5 bushels per acre, and state records were set in the No. 3 and 4 growing states of Minnesota and Nebraska as well as states farther on the fringe of the Corn Belt, like North Dakota.

As they finish their cropping plans for 2026, farmers say they are looking for ways to cut costs. In Nebraska, Gregerson has stopped buying new machinery and has found ways to cut fertilizer use. He is considering cutting back on herbicide applications, but doing so would mean staying close to the farm throughout the growing season to scout crops especially closely.

“When you do that, you have live and die in a sprayer. You don’t go on vacation in the spring or the summer. You have got to be so timely on killing your weeds.”

In North Dakota, farmer Phil Volk says growers in his area are delaying machinery repairs, skipping niceties like growth-promoting seed treatments on soybeans, and devoting most of their input costs to corn, his most profitable crop in 2025. Volk expects to expand his corn acreage this spring by 15 per cent compared to last year.

“They are going to cut as many expenses on soybeans (as possible) and pour all the juice to corn,” Volk said.

— one acre equals 0.405 hectares

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March soybeans rose 10.5 U.S. cents per bushel over the past week at US$10.75, while March corn gained 8.25 cents at US$4.30/bu. March Chicago wheat surged 28.25 cents to close at US$5.36/bu., its Kansas City hard red wheat counterpart added 22.25 cents at US$5.4225/bu. and March Minneapolis spring wheat was up 10.25 cents at US$5.74/bu.

Jack Scoville of The Price Futures Group in Chicago said cold temperatures ahead of the storm’s arrival may have damaged crops in winter wheat-growing areas, putting a weather premium on prices.

“(Winterkill) was probably the biggest impact,” Scoville said, adding that lower winter wheat prices earlier this month were setting up for a rally eventually.

U.S. President Donald Trump recently threatened a number of countries, including Iran, Greenland and Canada, reducing confidence in the U.S. dollar. As a result, the currency weakened against its international counterparts. However, a lower dollar means cheaper exports and increased buying interest.

For the week ended Jan. 15, U.S. soybean and corn export sales reached marketing-year highs of 2.45 million tonnes and 4.01 million, respectively, said the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Wheat export sales exceeded trade expectations for the week at 618,100 tonnes.

“Both those numbers are very high. They did support commercial demand and they are supporting commercial demand now,” Scoville said. “If the U.S. dollar stays weak, I imagine (export) sales will be stronger.”

He anticipated prices to become stronger in the next week and beyond. The March soybean contract could surpass the US$11/bu. level just in time before the South American soybean harvest enters the markets. The March corn contract could move up to US$4.45/bu, Scoville added.

“(March Chicago) wheat could move back to (November 2025) highs, US$5.60 to US$5.65/bu. Prices would be up across the board,” he said.

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Ettner said there were some surprises in the monthly supply and demand report from the United States Department of Agriculture released on Jan. 12. The moves in the three commodities have largely settled down.

“On the corn side, they raised harvested acres by 1.3 million,” Ettner said on Jan. 14. “There weren’t too many people talking about harvested (corn) acreage ahead of the report.”

The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates increased its call on harvested corn acres for 2025/26 to 91.3 million and nudged up the national yield by 0.5 of a bushel per acre to 186.5.

For soybeans, Ettner said it was a little bit of a surprise that the USDA cut exports by 16 million bushels at nearly 1.58 billion.

“The 16 million was larger than expected,” he said.

The changes to wheat weren’t much of a surprise either, Ettner added, noting that the market “presold” those ideas well before the WASDE was released and the reaction was toned down.

Ettner said that with the new carryouts for soybeans, corn and wheat, their prices have adjusted close to their fair values.

“There’s really not much of a need to move up or down based on carryouts,” he said, noting that some short-term movement could come from notable changes to exports or on fresh news that’s significant.

“The next sizeable report for a move will be the March 31 acreage report,” he added.

As for U.S. soybean export sales to China, Ettner said he’s confident that the latter will meet the 12 million tonnes of purchases by the end of February.

“Most of the commentary make it sound like it won’t happen or reasons why we think it won’t happen,” Ettner said. “I haven’t seen a buying pace slow enough to doubt it. Now with the lower price (for soybeans) we may even see them pick up the pace.”

Reports indicated China is believed to have bought about 10 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans over the last two and a half months. That leaves China with six weeks to acquire the remainder.

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Tom Lilja, an analyst for Progressive Ag in Fargo, N.D., said the January report will be especially important as it typically finalizes the yield figures for the current growing year. This year, he expects reduced yields for U.S. corn and soybeans.

“There was a fair amount of rust pressure in Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, through some of those areas,” Lilja said.

As for wheat, current and future crops may also see declines.

“Probably the biggest expectation (for wheat) is that the U.S. is set to lose (1.3) million acres of planted wheat this year just due to poor market price,” he added. “There were a number of in-state reports that showed very sharp declines in (winter wheat) conditions … We saw a decline of 26 per cent (good to excellent) in Colorado. Nebraska was down 14 per cent, Oklahoma was down nine per cent, Texas was down six per cent and Kansas was down two per cent.”

Lilja also heard that safrinha corn plantings in Brazil could be delayed as a knock-on effect of late soybean plantings due to high soil moisture.

“If that does happen and that weather does become a factor, I would anticipate strength in the corn market,” he said.

March corn, soybean and wheat contracts, except for Minneapolis spring wheat, all saw weekly gains on Jan. 7. While the March corn contract ended the day at US$4.4675 per bushel, Lilja said a two to three bushel per acre cut in corn yield could push the futures past US$4.55/bu.

He said the upcoming reports may already be priced into the markets by the trade, but Lilja warned a possible truce between Russia and Ukraine could potentially put more corn and wheat into the market.

“(Russia’s invasion of Ukraine) is one of the reasons our corn exports have been well above-average this year because Ukraine has been limited in shipping,” he explained.

The post CBOT Weekly: USDA reports could support prices appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

• · The January soybean contract lost 33 U.S. cents per bushel week-to-week to close at US$10.5825 on Dec. 17, while the March contract pulled back 32.25 cents at US$10.69.
• · March Chicago soft wheat fell 23.25 cents at US$5.0625, while March Kansas City hard red wheat declined 15.5 cents at US$5.0775 and March Minneapolis spring wheat dropped 13.25 cents at US$5.62.
• · March corn was down 3.75 cents at US$4.4050.

Scott Capinegro, hedging specialist for AgMarket.net, said that soybeans led the way down as it becomes more apparent China will not fulfill its commitment to purchase 12 million tonnes of soybeans from the United States by either the end of 2025 or February 2026. There is also doubt amongst the trade that China will purchase 25 million tonnes in 2026 and 2027.

“It’s going to be awful tough for (China) to fulfill that. Brazil (soybeans are) so much cheaper than us and it looks like they’re going to have a big crop,” Capinegro said.

Soybeans were at a near-record net long position for the week ended Nov. 18 at 229,625 contracts, the largest since October 2020. However, the U.S. government shutdown last month, which postponed reporting, meant analysts were largely unaware until that week’s Commitment of Traders report was released on Dec. 12.

“It would’ve been nice as brokers and the public to know they were long that many beans. All of a sudden, there was a high that day and down we went,” Capinegro said, adding he is checking the 200-day averages to see if they hold.

A large global wheat crop and increased competition from overseas have resulted in lagging U.S. wheat exports, leading to new contract lows. Meanwhile, Capinegro added that he would like to see March corn bounce off the US$4.35/bu. level.

There will be plenty of uncertainty in the markets when the calendar turns to 2026, Capinegro said, especially after U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Dec. 16 a planned blockade on Venezuelan oil tankers.

“Who knows what that’s going to lead to? If there’s a real disruption, it might be a little bullish for the crude oil market, which could also support the grain market. You have the Supreme Court still yet to rule on tariffs,” he said. “If you took tariffs off, it would rally the market. It makes our farm products a little bit cheaper for the world. A lot of things could play out in the next few weeks.

“Before (2025), we just had tariffs on China. Now we have it on the world … We’re oversupplying the world. Countries are asking which one is the cheapest and that’s where they’ll go.”

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March corn was losing as much as seven U.S. cents per bushel before rallying to gain 3.75 cents for the week ended Nov. 26 at US$4.4525/bu. January soybeans dropped 23 cents, but ended the week with a weekly loss of 5.25 cents at US$11.3150.

March Chicago soft wheat had been down 18.75 cents before finishing the week only nine cents lower at US$5.4050. Its Kansas City hard red wheat counterpart dropped 12.25 cents but later nearly erased its losses to close the week at US$5.30. March Minneapolis spring wheat was down 14.25 cents, but gained seven cents afterwards to close at US$5.7850.

Jack Scoville from The Price Futures Group in Chicago explained wheat suffered from global price declines earlier in the week and corn was following suit. He also said prices incurred a sudden uptick later on in the week as first notice day for December contracts is Nov. 28. However, he doesn’t believe the rallies will last.

“I think, overall, the funds are down seasonally and for whatever reason, I feel like we’re only getting a couple of days uptick. We’ll see what happens on Dec. 1,” Scoville said.

He added corn demand had been strong earlier, but talk of falling demand more recently put pressure on prices. Wheat and soybean demand was average, but reports that China will purchase more cargoes of U.S. soybeans lifted prices.

But there are underlying factors pressuring soybean prices.

“Brazilian (soybean) prices have not moved. Brazil is selling at cheaper levels than the U.S.,” Scoville said.

There is usually a lack of interest in grain markets going into December, he added, which would result in sideways to lower trade.

“Unless there’s some news around to really push prices higher … it looks like sideways trade is going to play out next month,” Scoville said.

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