The four-day Pro Farmer crop tour, which concluded in Rochester, Minnesota, on Thursday, found above-average production potential in each of the seven Midwestern states it covered. Several states boasted the highest projected corn yields and soybean pod counts in tour records dating to 2003.

About 100 participants spent the week scouting more than 1,500 corn and soybean fields in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota.

Grain traders have been monitoring the tour’s findings to gauge the size of the 2025 harvest in the United States, the world’s largest corn exporter and No. 2 soybean supplier.

The tour projected the corn yield in Iowa, the biggest U.S. corn grower, at 198.43 bushels per acre (bpa), above the 2024 tour average of 192.79 bpa, and Minnesota’s corn yield at 202.86 bpa, a sharp jump from 164.90 in 2024.

The yield estimates for both states were the highest in the tour’s 22-year data set.

“The Minnesota (corn) crop was way better than last year. It’s a good, solid crop, with plenty of moisture,” said Sherman Newlin, an analyst with Risk Management Commodities who was on the tour.

The four-day tour, which does not project soybean yields, estimated the number of soybean pods in a 3-by-3-foot (91cm x 91cm) square in Iowa at an average of 1,384.38 pods, while Minnesota’s average count was 1,247.86 pods. Both were the highest in tour data.

“The story of the tour is the massive pod counts we are seeing,” said Ted Seifried, chief strategist for Zaner Ag Hedge and a scout on the tour.

However, the same warm and wet weather that helped promote crop growth this summer has also fostered the spread of yield-robbing diseases in the two states, particularly Iowa.

“Sudden death syndrome and white mold could be limiting factors for reaching today’s scouted potential” in soybeans, said Tim Gregerson, a Nebraska farmer on the tour.

Scouts noted southern rust, a fungal disease, in Iowa and Minnesota corn, although it was too soon to know its impact on yields.

“The crop still needs another four to five weeks to finish (growing),” Gregerson said.

—1 acre = 0.405 hectares

The post Crop tour finds huge Minnesota, Iowa crops, but diseases lurk appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

The four-day Pro Farmer crop tour, which started on Monday and covered seven major corn and soybean states, found strong production potential so far. Grain market participants have been monitoring the tour’s findings to gauge the size of the 2025 harvest in the United States, the world’s largest corn exporter and No. 2 soybean supplier.

Above-average Illinois soy potential

The tour, which does not project soybean yields, estimated the number of soybean pods in a 3-by-3-foot square in Illinois, the top soy-producing state, at an average of 1,479.22, above last year’s tour average of 1,419.11 pods and the highest in tour records, which date back to 2003.

The tour projected the Illinois corn yield at 199.57 bushels per acre (bpa), down from 204.14 bpa in 2024, but the second-highest on tour records.

In Iowa’s western third, the tour’s corn yield forecasts and soybean pod counts were well above the three-year averages. It will release full statewide figures for Iowa on Thursday.

Rust, fungal issues

Timely rains benefited crops in western Iowa but also promoted the growth of fungal diseases such as southern rust in corn and sudden death syndrome in soybeans, which tend to lower crop yields.

“I think we’ve lost 10 per cent of the yield due to disease,” Roger Cerven, an Iowa farmer who is on the tour, said of sudden death syndrome in soybeans.

For corn, southern rust was so widespread in some Iowa fields that scouts emerged with sleeves covered in dusty orange-colored residue from rust spores on corn leaves.

The extent of any impact of diseases on yields won’t be fully known until crops are closer to harvest, scouts said, but some effects may emerge sooner.

“The crop, I think, is going to look a whole lot different in 10 days or two weeks than what it does right now,” said Chip Flory, one of the tour’s leaders.

Roughly 100 crop scouts are on the tour, which wraps up in Rochester, Minnesota, on Thursday. The editors of Pro Farmer, a newsletter, will release their own estimate of U.S. corn and soybean production on Friday.

—1 acre = 0.405 hectares

The post Crop tour finds strong corn, soy potential along with diseases in Illinois, western Iowa appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

In Indiana, corn yield potential is the highest in the tour’s records since at least 2003, though the average soybean pod count in the state is slightly below 2024 levels.

Corn crop shows record potential

Market players are monitoring the four-day crop tour, which started on Monday and covers seven top U.S. corn and soybean states, for more cues on harvest prospects after the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast on August 12 a record-large corn crop, depressing Chicago Board of Trade corn Cv1 futures.

Nebraska’s crops benefited from timely rainfall across much of the state. While irrigation is common in parts of Nebraska, the rains have helped to boost growth on dryland fields, which typically produce lower yields than irrigated acres.

“This is probably one of the better crops I’ve seen, mainly because the dryland (acreage) is not bringing the average down,” said Brent Judisch, a farmer from Cedar Falls, Iowa, who is on the western leg of the tour.

The Pro Farmer tour, which does not project soybean yields, estimated the average number of soybean pods in a 3-foot-by-3-foot (91cm-by-91cm) square in Nebraska at 1,348.31 pods, above last year’s average of 1,172.48 pods and the highest in tour records through 2003.

Indiana soy estimated above average

Crop scouts projected Nebraska’s average corn yield at 179.50 bushels per acre (bpa), above the 2024 tour average of 173.25 and the highest since the 2021 tour.

For Indiana, scouts projected an average corn yield of 193.82 bpa, the biggest in the tour’s records and an increase from the 2024 estimate of 187.54 bpa.

The tour estimated the average soybean pod count for Indiana at 1,376.59 pods, down from 1,409.02 pods in 2024 but above the three-year average of 1,294.98 pods.

“We see a lot of potential right now, but there is still a lot of this growing season left,” said Lane Akre, a Pro Farmer economist on the eastern half of the tour.

Scouts will survey crops in Illinois and western Iowa on Wednesday and the tour wraps up in Rochester, Minnesota, on Thursday.

The editors of Pro Farmer, a newsletter, will release their own estimate of U.S. corn and soybean production on Friday.

The post Nebraska soy, Indiana corn show best potential in years, crop scouts say appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

The gains came a day after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Tuesday cited “unprecedented planting delays” as the reason for slashing its forecast for corn yields more than expected.

Traders remain unsure about how many acres will be planted with corn and soybeans and how much the harvests will produce.

If conditions improve, farmers could switch acres to soybeans, which are typically planted after corn. However, future rains mean that more soybean plantings may be stalled, traders said.

Farmers who are planting and replanting corn and soybeans will “still struggle to finish” due to returning rains, lowering acreage, according to U.S. forecaster Commodity Weather Group.

Late planting of either crop raises the risks that yields could be hurt by hot summer weather or an autumn frost.

“It’s a really bad forecast to try to get anything done for corn and soybean planting,” said Brian Hoops, president of U.S.-based broker Midwest Market Solutions.

The most-active corn contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose 0.5 per cent to $4.30 a bushel, after soaring 2.9 per cent on Tuesday (all figures US$). Soybeans climbed 2.2 per cent, to $8.78 a bushel.

Wheat advanced 1.6 per cent to $5.26-1/4 a bushel at the CBOT, after ending up 2.1 per cent on Tuesday.

USDA on Tuesday cut its corn yield projection in a monthly report by 5.7 per cent to 166 bushels, surprising analysts who expected a smaller decline.

The drop, along with a three per cent decrease in USDA’s acreage estimate, left the government’s production outlook at 13.68 billion bushels, which would be the smallest corn harvest in four years.

“The report yesterday really set the wheels in motion that USDA recognizes there are some crop issues,” Hoops said.

USDA on Tuesday left its estimates for soybean production and yields unchanged from May. Adjustments to the soybean crop outlook can be expected in USDA’s July report, the agency’s chief economist told Reuters on Wednesday.

It is “far too early to make informed call on soy acres or yield,” said Rich Feltes, vice-president of research for broker RJ O’Brien.

Upcoming rains may be “largely beneficial for crops planted but harmful for 10-12 million acres of unplanted corn,” he said in a note.

— Reporting for Reuters by Tom Polansek in Chicago; additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Naveen Thukral in Singapore.

The post U.S. grains: Corn, soybeans rally as rains threaten more planting problems appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

While it’s too early to provide firm yield estimates, Morgan Cott, field agronomist for the Manitoba Corn Growers Association, said some high-moisture corn was already harvested in mid-September, and regular grain corn harvest got underway last week.

“That’s a lot earlier than normal. They estimate about five per cent of it is done so far, with lower yields than we had hoped for.”

“(It) definitely finished a little too early.”

The high heat this summer caused kernel abortions and that is bound to affect the finished yield, she said — although it’s too early to tell the extent of the damage or if weights will be off.

“It looks good on top, but I think it will most likely be that the yield is affected. But it will take some time to find out if it is going to be a little bit light.”

On the positive side, it appears mould will not present a serious issue for most growers.

The crop got off to a good start this year, especially considering dry conditions at seeding. Timely rain boosted the crop along and it was growing well until mid-July. Then the weather turned too hot and too dry and the pollination period was shorter than usual, just at the time when the number of kernels set is largely determined.

“Because the heat was so high, it caused abortion in the kernels so that really, obviously is affecting yield,” said Cott.

Meanwhile, Manitoba growers have completed the harvest of most silage corn. Most growers started to take that off at the beginning of September.

Cott said there is more silage corn than expected because the drought and hay shortage situations in the province prompted more producers to take more corn for silage. However, she said she didn’t have final acreage numbers yet.

Bids for current-crop corn, delivered, were listed at $3.66-$3.92 (US$2.82-$3.02) per bushel in North Dakota. Average highs and lows for the current crop for the year are at US$2.38-$3.63 to bushel, based in North Dakota.

— Terry Fries writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

The post Feed weekly outlook: Manitoba corn seems headed for lower yields appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

Why it matters: The provincial crop insurance agency has some of the most solid crop production numbers in Ontario, as its members have to report their actual yields. About 75 per cent of grains and oilseeds farmers in Ontario have crop insurance. The results show how resilient corn genetics, especially, have become despite challenging weather years like 2017.

Crop supply companies in southern Ontario at the Chatham-Kent Farm Show said the average is about right, with some regional variation.

Here’s what they said:

On soybeans:

• Soybeans were “all over the map,” said Bob Thirlwall, a technical agronomist with DeKalb who covers the London to Windsor area. “I’ve never seen a year where the yields swung so wildly, from 20 bushels per acre to 70 bushels, depending on where you were.”
• Most of the soybeans were challenged in the far southwest of the province, said Scott Vandehogen, seed specialist with AGRIS and Wanstead Co-ops, but there were some small pockets of better yields.
• The fortunes of soybeans took a turn in August, depending on where you were, said Stephen Denys, director of business management with Maizex. In the south of the province, it was dry for much of the summer, but timely rains arrived during pod fill to create some areas with good yields. Other rainier areas further north had good plant growth, but they were dry in August which made it a challenge for pod development, and a good growth environment for white mold. Maizex had soybean yield pegged at 45 bushels per acre, close to the Agricorp number.
• During pod counts in August and September, Thirlwall said, they’d see top pods that looked like they’d have three soybeans, but only had two. “The potential was there, but they just dried up.”

On corn:

• There was concern about the corn crop in August, Denys said. It wasn’t developing quickly enough due to a lack of heat and some wondered if it would reach black layer. Maizex factored in potential low test weight and came up with a 164-165 bu./ac. estimate. Take out the low test weight factor and the estimate would be 176. Hot weather in September helped pull the crop to the 184 bu./ac. number.
• There were still some pockets of lower test weight corn in areas that had large rainfalls and mostly cool weather.
• “We were really surprised when we got in there with the combine and saw some of these 200-bushel yields in areas that really got hit hard by the drought,” Thirlwall said. “I think part of what we saw was in July during pollination, it was a little cooler than we usually experienced in July.” Corn kernel counts were good, but the expectation was kernel size would be small. The hot, open fall enabled the corn to reach maturity with good yield.
• Vandehogen said corn has continually shown itself to be the strongest improver in crop yield, at two to three bushels more per year, compared to an improvement in soybean yield of 0.4 per cent per year. “With the new trait packages, it holds the yield.”

— John Greig is a field editor for Glacier FarmMedia based at Ailsa Craig, Ont. Follow him at @jgreig on Twitter.

The post Hot fall pulls Ontario corn yields above average appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

Manitoba’s average yield from the 2017 crop was 134 bushels an acre, according to Myron Krahn, president of the Manitoba Corn Growers Association.

While the number, taken from crop insurance data, is down slightly from the previous year, Krahn said it’s still higher than the 10- to 15-year average.

Solid demand is another factor underpinning the market.

In particular, Alberta feedlots have taken a liking to Manitoba corn this year, as corn is competing more favourably with feed wheat and barley prices.

“Corn prices aren’t fantastic,” he said. “They’re hovering pretty much between $4 and $4.30 (per bushel).”

A major reason can be found in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest supply and demand report. On Friday, the agency pegged the 2017-18 U.S. harvest at 14.6 billion bushels, which was 26 million bushels higher than the December forecast.

USDA also raised the ending stocks number in the U.S. to a staggering 2.48 billion bushels.

As a result, whenever prices start to make a rally, U.S. farmers immediately begin dumping supplies, which keep the gains in check.

As long as bids don’t drop below the $4 level, farmers in the province should continue to plant acres, Krahn said.

However, it’s not looking as though acreage will go up that much, if at all, in 2018.

“Talking to fellow seed dealers around the province there’s a large assumption that corn acres will be fairly flat,” he said.

According to Statistics Canada, Manitoba farmers planted 410,000 acres of corn in 2017, up from the year previous when just 345,000 acres were put into the ground.

Without the strong yields to pace the crop, Krahn said, acreage would likely be worse because the current prices aren’t sparking a lot of enthusiasm.

Going forward, Krahn said he isn’t overly worried by the lack of snow in some regions of the province. Timely spring rains are more helpful than snow cover, he said.

“We had almost no rain last summer, so the soil moisture was depleted for sure,” he said.

— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

The post Manitoba corn rides strong yields through bearish market appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

More farmers will likely get into their grain corn this week and next, said Pam de Rocquigny, general manager of Manitoba Corn Growers.

“The weather looks great so hopefully corn continues to dry down.”

Corn is considered mature at 30 to 32 per cent moisture, she said, and even though many fields have reached that point or lower, farmers often prefer to leave it in fields to allow it to dry further to cut down on drying costs later.

Dan Fox, a crop consultant for Agri-Trend in the Brunkild, Man. area, said he’s noticed a similar situation. Some clients in his area have fields at 26 per cent moisture but they continue to wait. Last year, many harvested at 30 per cent moisture.

It’s possible, he said, that growers around Steinbach and others east of the Red River were also held up by trying to get their beans in the bin first and were delayed by rainfall a couple of weeks ago. Farmers west of the Red River may have been trying to make space in bins before starting on corn.

Local prices are holding up so far, he said, with a heavy crop expected from Manitoba growers and massive international stockpiles also building.

“For the most part, I think guys are getting into that $4-plus (per bushel) right now. I got guys that have sold at $4.50 into January.”

Most Manitoba corn is traditionally sold into feed markets.

As long as growers can get about 150 bushels per acre yield or better, Fox added, they should do reasonable well at those prices. He said the 2017 crop may not live up to the yields of last year, but most growers should still like what they see.

De Rocquigny said it’s too early to put a firm yield number to the 2017 harvest, but added that earlier estimates looked promising, although there are farmers in a few areas who might see lower yields because of dry conditions.

A better picture will appear in a couple of weeks, she said.

— Terry Fries writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow CNS Canada at @CNSCanada on Twitter.

The post Manitoba corn harvest off and running appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

Soybean futures fell after the USDA surprised analysts by hiking its U.S. soybean yield estimate as well.

Wheat futures closed higher, rallying from early declines and gaining against corn on inter-market spreads.

Chicago Board of Trade December corn settled down six cents at $3.51-1/2 per bushel after dipping to $3.45-1/2, its lowest since Aug. 31 (all figures US$).

CBOT November soybeans ended down 9-1/2 cents at $9.50-1/2 per bushel while December wheat rose 7-1/4 cents to $4.42 a bushel.

Corn fell after USDA in a monthly report raised its estimate of the average U.S. 2017 corn yield to 169.9 bu./ac. from its August estimate of 169.5 and above an average of analyst expectations for 168.2.

“Two months in a row, the government throws a bearish surprise at the trade. There’s nothing bullish about these numbers: yields are bigger than the trade thought,” said Don Roose, president of Iowa-based U.S. Commodities.

USDA raised its soybean yield estimate to 49.9 bu./ac., from 49.4 in August, topping a range of trade expectations.

“Soybeans got to enjoy some beneficial weather in the Corn Belt in August, and yield was increased as a result. This bump is not unexpected, but the 0.5 additional bu./ac. keeps the balance sheet’s ending stocks at 475 million bushels, even with greater export demand,” said Alex Norton, analyst at Beeson Inc.

The increases came in spite of dry conditions in portions of the Midwest crop belt.

“The U.S. yields show us just how resilient crops are these days to weather-related stress events. Technology has improved over the past five years,” said Terry Reilly, senior commodity analyst with Futures International.

CBOT wheat firmed on long wheat/short corn spreads, with the December wheat contract climbing to the day’s high late in the trading session.

Also supportive, USDA trimmed its world wheat ending stocks forecast for 2017-18 to 263.14 million tonnes, from 264.69 million in August.

— Julie Ingwersen is a commodities correspondent for Reuters in Chicago; additional reporting by Tom Polansek in Chicago, Michael Hogan in Hamburg and Naveen Thukral in Singapore.

The post U.S. grains: Corn falls after USDA raises yield estimate appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

However, the chances for a delayed spring this year could dampen that enthusiasm, according to one industry watcher.

“If we get into a delayed planting situation we may see producers switch their corn acres into another shorter-season crop type,” said Pam de Rocquigny, general manager of the Manitoba Corn Growers Association.

In 2016, yields in Manitoba hit a record 146 bushels an acre, according to Manitoba Agriculture.

“It makes us wonder what could have been if we had ideal growing conditions as we had some challenging weather last year,” she noted.

In 2016, corn area in Manitoba was 345,000 acres, according to Statistics Canada, up from just 250,000 in 2015. At this point, de Rocquigny said, it’s too soon to say what will happen, but she believes corn could hit the 300,000-acre range.

The plant’s hardiness in the face of so much precipitation should serve it well.

“Corn can handle excess moisture conditions a little bit better, after crop establishment,” said de Rocquigny.

Recent warm weather has also given fields a chance to burn off some snowpack before springtime hits.

When it comes time to dry down the corn, de Rocquigny noted, producers will want to see as little moisture as possible.

“In the last five to seven years some guys were able to take corn off relatively dry, where they only needed to put it on aeration. More often than not, though, corn does require artificial drying to get it to safe storage levels,” she said.

Ideally, corn should hit physiological maturity in that September timeframe.

“Obviously the closer you can get to safe moisture storage levels out in the field the less cost there will be of artificially drying it. But like we saw last fall, sometimes that’s not an option,” she said.

— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

The post Delayed planting on Prairies could reduce corn acres appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.