Cash prices for flax across Western Canada ranged from C$13.20 to C$15.75 per bushel for old crop delivered, with new crop at C$16.30, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. Those in North Dakota were steady at the Canadian dollar equivalent of C$13.91 to C$15.94/bu. delivered for old crop, with no new crop prices listed by Prairie Ag.

“It’s going to be a good year for flax because acres are projected to be down again and we are seeing less guys who are going to be flax growers,” commented Scott Shiels of Grain Millers Canada in Yorkton, Sask.

He stressed that flax is a particularly difficult crop to grow, one that’s not conducive to every area. Of the flax grown on the Prairies, he said it’s only been the brown flax that’s he’s seen upward price movement.

Planted flax acres continued to decline in Canada and the United States. Last month Statistics Canada projected flax acres on the Prairies to drop to 510,300 acres in 2024/25, down from 609,200 the year before and the 778,900 sown in 2022/23. The region is the only part of the country that has continued to grow flax with any measurable data.

This year will mark the first time since 1950 that Canadian planted flax acres were below 600,000 when 584,000 were seeded. As well, this would be the smallest area planted since 1940 when 381,500 acres were seeded.

Last week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture set flax acres at 105,000, split almost evenly between Montana and North Dakota. Flax area will drop from last year’s 178,000 acres seeded last year and the 263,000 in 2022/23.

“A lot of times when the first acre reports come out and acres are lower, it will push up the old crop prices,” Shiels explained.

Besides reduced acres, he also stated prices have risen on the Canadian Prairies more likely due to buyers finding themselves short.

“That’s a good opportunity for the farmer,” he said, however there’s a downside to be cautious of.

“It seems to be one of easiest crops for customers and buyers to import,” Shiels warned, noting that foreign flax is often as good of quality as Canadian flax.

“We’ve seen it in the past, that guys are waiting too long” before prices suddenly drop, he added.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg

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In a report released late last month, StatCan projected only 689,000 acres of flaxseed to be planted this spring, an 11.6 per cent decrease from the year before. More significantly, the total number of flax acres would be the fewest since 1950.

While flaxseed area in Manitoba is expected to expand 40 per cent to 71,200 acres, Saskatchewan and Alberta were projected to see declines of 11.7 and 31.6 per cent to 527,300 and 88,000 acres, respectively.

Greg Sundquist, chair of the Saskatchewan Flax Development Commission (SaskFlax), said StatCan’s estimate for flax acres is “very close.” While flax prices are doing well, those for other commodities were outperforming the oilseed, he said.

“Canola, wheat, barley. With the pricing there, we haven’t been able to attract acres,” Sundquist said. “The people that grow flax really like to grow flax. Flax can be very profitable as other crops right now.”

The high-delivered bid for Saskatchewan flax as of Friday was $16 per bushel — $21 lower than one year earlier, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. This compared to the high-delivered bid for Saskatchewan canola at $17.24/bu.

Other issues that have continued to deter growers from flax include variable yields and the removal of flax straw after harvest, according to Sundquist.

Canadian flax has been effectively shut out of European and Chinese markets due to the influx of cheaper products from Russia and Kazakhstan. As a result, the Canadian flax market has focused on satiating U.S. food demand as well as its own.

“We’re supplying the U.S. for their needs and Canadian needs. Flax has gotten to be more of a food (product) just due to the health benefit of flax and that translates into human food, pet food, livestock food and a lot of it is going into the U.S.,” Sundquist said, adding that Canada’s flax industry is trying to break into the Mexican market.

Flax is very disease-resistant compared to canola, as well as cheaper to grow, and can be quite profitable, he said, adding the lack of flax acres will become a temporary setback.

“It depends on the markets (and) what prices have to go to in order to attract more flax acres,” Sundquist said. “Is it a permanent thing? I’m not sure. Is it a temporary thing? I hope so.”

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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The flax market in general is “just gone crazy. We’re up 50 per cent since the start of harvest,” Scott Shiels of Grain Millers Canada at Yorkton, Sask. said of prices.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada forecast the 2020-21 carryover for flax at 125,000 tonnes, slightly more than double than the previous year’s ending stocks.

Prairie Ag Hotwire reported flax prices in Saskatchewan were $14.90-$18 per bushel delivered as of Thursday. Alberta prices were $16.50-$17.25/bu., and Manitoba was at $15.06/bu.

“It’s going to be super tight from the feel of it today. It’s going to be dog-eat-dog out there for every bushel,” Shiels said, noting it’s very likely ending stocks should fall well under AAFC’s current projections.

MarketsFarm Pro analyst Mike Jubinville concurred, and estimated about three-quarters of Canada’s 2020 crop has already been sold.

Jubinville speculated there could be two reasons for the sharp rise in flax prices — one being production in the Black Sea region came up short this year, and the other being a possible short-term transportation bottleneck holding back flax shipments.

“It’s hard to decipher the conflicting reports at this time,” he said.

In the latest Canadian Grain Commission (CGC) weekly grain handling summary, producer deliveries of flax have jumped more than 125 per cent this marketing year at 178,900 tonnes as of Sunday. Exports have skyrocketed nearly 470 per cent, at 68,900 tonnes, and domestic usage is up almost 56 per cent, at 17,600 tonnes.

In the CGC’s monthly export report released at the beginning of November, Canadian flax exports vaulted 444 per cent by the end of September. At the time, 41,900 tonnes were shipped overseas, with 25,400 tonnes to the European Union via Belgium, compared to zero ar the same time in 2019-20. It’s a similar case with China, having taken 9,900 tonnes versus nothing the year before.

Lastly, Shiels believes this year’s Canadian flax crop was short of the 552,000 tonnes predicted by Statistics Canada in its September report.

“We were one rain away from a fantastic crop. For flax, the quality is good, but yields weren’t as good,” he said.

StatsCan could provide a clearer picture of where flax stands when it releases its principal field crops report on Dec. 3.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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Export numbers have been lower in recent years, due in part to China having opted to import flax from other countries besides Canada.

According to an early 2019 report from FarmLead, Kazakhstan surpassed Canada in both flax production and export volumes in 2018, “foreshadowing the gradual decline of Canadian flax in international markets.”

This decreased foreign appetite for Canadian flax has played a role in dampening flax prices.

“It seems like prices should be softer than they have been, but that doesn’t mean the grower wants to sell at that level,” one Winnipeg-based trader said.

Another industry expert characterized prices as a “cat-and-mouse game.

“Nobody is chasing prices… Buyers think prices will be lower, and sellers are cautious.”

New-crop flax bids are currently between $12 and $12.50 per bushel, and that price may decrease come harvest time.

“Everything is trading closer to that,” the first trader said.

Recent rainstorms across the Prairies have also softened prices, eliminating the price premium that flax markets were observing earlier in the season.

— Marlo Glass writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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“There’s no big hurrahs right now on flax… I hate to say it, I’m a very optimistic type of person, but it’s kind of a flat market right now,” said Ben Friesen, senior market manager at Scoular Special Crops.

For the past year the flax market has been pretty steady with no big changes, according to Friesen. Brown flax has hung around the $12.50-$13.50 per bushel range.

At Ilta Grain, senior commodity trader Mike Allaire said they have been buying flax at prices even lower than that over the last year.

Current bids, he said, are around the $11.50-$12 per bushel range, with bids on average falling around $12-$12.50 per bushel for the past year. However, he doesn’t remember buying any flax in the last year for more than $12.25 per bushel.

The low prices and flat market are due to loss of market share overseas. The Black Sea region has upped its production of all crops, including flax, and is undercutting Canada’s prices in the Chinese and European markets.

“It’s just a lot cheaper to ship from (the Black Sea), freight-wise, and they’re happy with quality as well. So that’s taking away from us,” Allaire said.

Last year’s crop was one of the best Allaire has seen, quality-wise, but as a trader he just hasn’t been able to beat the prices at which other countries are selling flax.

“We’re (exporting) a little bit more to the U.S. this year because of their small crop. But the unfortunate thing about it is that we probably have the best flax quality I’ve ever seen in my life and we’re not able to export it overseas.”

The outlook for principal field crops released by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada on Feb. 16 predicted flaxseed prices will be between $12 and $12.75 per bushel for 2018. Flax acres are expected to decrease from 1,040,300 in 2017 to 1,037,800 this year.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s prediction doesn’t surprise Friesen, who expects to see a slight dip in flax acres.

“I do believe that they will, due to different reasons… I don’t know if (acres will drop) terribly significantly but they will probably slack off a bit.”

Neither Scoular nor Ilta have new-crop pricing out yet for flax. Allaire hasn’t heard any inquiries yet from grain buyers with Ilta about flax prices.

Overall, it has been a bleak year so far for the Canadian flax industry. In January the Flax Council of Canada shut its physical office in Winnipeg, saying it would continue to operate online with a single part-time employee.

— Ashley Robinson writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow her at @AshleyMR1993 on Twitter.

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Flax fields in western Manitoba saw thunderstorms and powerful winds, which knocked out power in some areas of the province during the weekend. Parts of southeastern Saskatchewan received flash flooding, with more rain expected in the coming week.

“We’re trying to get a handle on what that means and how extensive the rain was over the weekend,” said Don Kerr, president at the Flax Council of Canada in Winnipeg.

Prior to recent rains, crops were in good condition, he added.

Flax prices have ticked up slightly following estimates from Statistics Canada, which show acres lower than previously thought, he said.

“It was actually a bit of a surprise to most of the marketplace, because I think traders were anticipating that the acres would be slightly higher than the first report,” he said.

In May, StatsCan said flax had lost a third of acres from year-ago levels, with estimates showing about 1.115 million acres seeded this year.

In June, those estimates were revised downward to about 925,000 acres. Analyst estimates collected by CNS Canada ahead of the report came in between 1.1 million and 1.5 million acres.

The data has had an effect on prices, Kerr said, although he expects flax to remain in ample supply this year.

“We have a pretty large carryover from last year, so overall supplies we should be similar to what we had about a year ago,” he said.

Flax prices in Western Canada are between $11.08 and $11.50 a bushel, according to data from Prairie Ag Hotwire.

— Jade Markus writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow her at @jade_markus on Twitter.

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“It’s the year of the pulses, and certainly growers are taking advantage of good prices for pulses,” said Don Kerr, president at the Flax Council of Canada, referring to the United Nations General Assembly’s declaration of 2016 as the International Year of Pulses.

“That’s definitely had an impact on the acres of flax this year.”

This year’s seeded flax area is estimated at 1.1 million acres, compared with 1.6 million acres the year prior, according to Statistics Canada data.

The flax industry is working to become more competitive against other options growers have, Kerr said.

The council wants to increase benefits to producers by increasing yields and export markets.

The flax council estimates mean producer yield at about 22 bushels an acre. The group wants to increase those levels to 27 bushels an acre by 2020, and 32 bushels an acre by 2025.

One of the issues curbing yields, Kerr said, is the absence of herbicide-tolerant varieties of flax.

The Flax Council is working with a U.S.-based company to develop a non-GMO, herbicide-tolerant variety of flax, which Kerr said has long-term benefits for improving yield per acre.

Short-term, the council is working on developing and distributing data which could help growers use best management practises, he added.

“There are growers in Western Canada that can produce 40 bushels an acre of flaxseed,” he said.

“It’s just a matter of trying to take that information and compile it so that we can give all flax growers in Western Canada the information they need to hopefully achieve better yields.”

The council is also looking at becoming more competitive, price-wise, by expanding and developing markets in China and India.

“The Chinese market is huge, and we’ve seen the imports into China increase dramatically.”

China currently buys 353,000 tonnes of flax from Canada, according to data from the Flax Council of Canada, but the council hopes those numbers will increase to 450,000 by 2020 and 550,000 by 2025.

“China, in general, is a market that is just going to continue to grow,” Kerr said.

Another potential market for flax is India, Kerr said. “Basically we’re talking about a market at least the size of China.”

India produces its own small crop of flax, but Kerr said there’s growing consumer demand within the country.

“We think that over the next 10 years India could emerge as a market that could really expand our exports for flaxseed.”

— Jade Markus writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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One market participant says weaker prices have influenced farmers, while another says smaller crops are often overlooked during surveys.

StatsCan estimates flax’s seeded area at about 1.1 million acres, compared with 1.6 million acres the previous year.

“Prices held fairly low, compared to what farmers expected,” said Michael Popowich, co-owner of TA Foods at Yorkton, Sask.

Since flax came off fields last September, price increases have been minimal, he added.

Prices are about $2-$3 per bushel weaker than they normally are in the spring, he said.

Delivered elevator flax is about $10.65 per bushel in Saskatchewan, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire.

“I think that probably has influenced a lot of farmers to look another direction, for at least one year.”

Poor export movement to China and high acres in 2015 kept pressure on prices over the course of the year.

“That just kind of led to a little bit of oversupply,” Popowich said.

Sometimes farmers don’t keep smaller crops in mind during surveys, said Neil Townsend, director of market research at G3 Canada in Winnipeg.

In future data, he added, there could be a “reversion to mean” in final results.

“You never know with those smaller (crops). We’ll see how it all unfolds out here.”

— Jade Markus writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow her at @jade_markus on Twitter.

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Flax’s cost of production is higher than many of its rivals and the growing lustre of pulse crops could cut into some acres, according to one industry watcher.

“It’s too early to really throw a number at it, but right now my instincts are it’s going to be down 10 per cent,” said Grant Fehr, a senior merchandiser for Scoular Special Crops at Morden, Man.

This contrasts with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s recent prediction that 1.73 million acres will go in the ground during 2016-17.

Last year, 1.64 million acres were seeded to flax in Canada, a slight increase from the previous year’s total of 1.59 million.

Fehr said another reason believes acres could be down is the growing speculation that peas and lentils are going to be planted “big time” in Saskatchewan.

Acres of canola and wheat to be seeded will also dictate flax acres, but at this point he said it’s too early to say how much wheat and canola there will be.

“Our cost of production shows (for flax) it’s pretty much a wash, so it’s hard to say where it’s going to be at,” said Fehr.

In flax’s favour right now, however, is its price. “We’ve got a $12 new-crop contract out there, which is an attractive contract for flax.”

— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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Old-crop flax prices have increased slightly since harvest, as farmers have been firm on sales, and demand has picked up throughout the market, said Nathan Bosch, merchant at Saskatoon-based Rayglen Commodities.

“The Chinese market has picked up a little after working through some of their stocks. This has happened a little sooner than expected,” Bosch said via email.

Delivered elevator prices for flax sit at about $11.39 per bushel in Saskatchewan, $11.65 in Manitoba, and $11.11 in Alberta, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire.

Canada’s seeded flax area was higher in 2015 than in the previous year, but the yield wasn’t as good as producers had expected, which is also supporting Canadian prices, said Michael Popowich, co-owner of Yorkton, Sask. flax firm TA Foods.

“There’s lots of flax out there, but how much of it is actually better than feed grade, I’m not too sure.”

The amount of flax available is similar to last year’s, he added, and market watchers were expecting the volume to pressure prices — but now the availability of quality flax is lower than expected.

“So there’s a lot of flax, but a lot of it hasn’t been as good,” he said. “That makes the prices go up on average, if the producers are looking for the food side.”

However, increased competition from other growing regions, such as Ukraine, is keeping a lid on Canadian prices.

Analysts out of that region are forecasting record flaxseed exports.

— Jade Markus writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow her at @jade_markus on Twitter.

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