On April 1, profit-taking took May canola down C$13.30/tonne to close at C$718.50. However, it has still remained between C$710 to C$740 since March 24.

Phil Speiss from RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg said while canola prices have been in a bullish trend line over the past few months, fundamentals are leaning bearish due to large stocks and high acreage expectations this year.

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A canola contract closing below its 20-day average in two straight sessions is an indicator of a downturn, he added.

“That’s step one. Get a close below the trend line,” Speiss said. “If you can get (two closes below), well now you start talking maybe there’s a potential downside. You look at targets from previous days. On (March 23), we saw a low of C$708.70/tonne and (the week) before that, we saw C$700.60. Those would become targets on the downside.”

Canola prices are largely tied to crude oil and especially to Chicago soyoil, but Speiss said diesel and heating oil markets are also influencing the oilseed.

“(Heating oil) is the most firm out of the energy markets,” he said. “There is a connection there on the bio side of things … If you look at a heating oil chart, it’s going straight up. If you’re playing biofuel and you’re a speculator or large managed money and you see that play, you’re just feeding into that canola length.”

Canola crush margins are also remarkably strong with the May contract at C$333.64/tonne as of March 31, more than double from a year earlier (C$165.31). However, Speiss noted that margins are sure to come down soon.

“It’s parabolic,” he said. “We know the crush pace is the crush pace. We know that they’re full through summer. At some point, it’s just a number. From a futures perspective, we see crush demand getting pushed further and further out the curve: November, January 2027, March 2027 … (Crush margins) don’t play too much of a role anymore.”

As for where canola prices could go in the near future, Speiss said they’re as uncertain as the war itself.

“We’re so tied to the geopoliticals right now, it’s an impossibility,” he said. “If you want to bet on anything, the trend just stays intact until you break it.”

The post ICE Weekly: Trade waits for canola to break out appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

The USDA releases its prospective plantings report on March 31, providing the first survey-based estimates on the upcoming U.S. growing season.

The trade sentiment ahead of the report is for a three-to-five-million-acre reduction in corn area from the 98.8 million acres grown in 2025 and a similarly sized increase in soybeans from the 81.2 million acres grown last year. Rising fertilizer costs due to the war could see even more area shift to soybeans.

Soybean/corn ratio

The soybean/corn ratio is calculated by dividing the soybean futures price by the corn futures price, with a number above 2.5 historically seen as favouring planting soybeans and a ratio below that tipping the scales to corn.

With May soybeans settling at US$11.7175 and corn at US$4.6725 on March 25, the ratio works out to 2.51 — slightly favouring soybeans.

However, the localized cash bid ratios across the countryside are more varied. Looking at a sampling of elevators in Illinois and Iowa the local soybean/corn ratios range from 2.35 to 2.65, meaning seeding corn looks more favourable in some areas and soybeans in others.

The high fertilizer costs and other metrics are also not caught in the ratio, which should keep speculation on the annual fight for acres at the forefront of the trade in the coming weeks.

Charts

May corn has traded in a range of US$4.40 to US$4.76 per bushel since the Middle East war started on Feb. 28. Fund traders added to the bullish bets, to sit on their largest net long in corn since February 2025 at about 230,000 contracts. The trend is still higher in corn, as that market looks to keep too many acres from flipping to soybeans.

May soybeans settled at US$11.7075 per bushel on Feb. 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel first attacked Iran and hit a session high of US$12.3875 per bushel two weeks later. However, the contract was right back where it started by March 25.

The post CBOT weekly outlook: Soybeans/corn awaiting acreage data appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

Why it matters: A large fund position can sway the futures markets

The net managed money long position in canola futures came in at 110,658 contracts as of March 17 (135,694 long/25,036 short), up by about 18,000 contracts on the week due to a combination of short covering and new longs going on the books. That marked the largest net long position since July 2025.

Total open interest in canola futures increased to 364,317 contracts from 352,531 the previous week.

U.S. futures

Fund traders reduced their net long position in soybeans at the Chicago Board of Trade by roughly 16,000 contracts, with the net long dipping to about 195,200 contracts. That was the first contraction after six previous weeks of increases.

The net short position in corn came in at about 230,800 contracts on March 17, up by 32,000 contracts on the week.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of 11,900 contracts — down by about 10,000 contracts from the previous week.

Hard red winter wheat posted a net long of about 11,300 contracts. In MIAX spring wheat, the managed money net long position came in at about 15,300 contracts.

The post Speculators add to bullish bets in canola appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

Why it matters: A large fund position can sway the futures markets

The net managed money long position in canola futures came in at 26,844 contracts as of Feb. 24 (71,072 long/44,228 short), up by about 21,000 contracts on the week due to a combination of short covering and new bullish bets going on the books. That marked the largest net long position since August 2025.

Total open interest in canola futures dipped to 296,019 contracts from 305,730 the previous week.

U.S. futures

Fund traders grew their net long position in soybeans at the Chicago Board of Trade by roughly 12,000 contracts, with the net long rising to about 171,400 contracts.

The net short position in corn came in at about 13,200 contracts on Feb. 24, down by 30,000 contracts on the week.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of 17,800 contracts — down by about 52,000 contracts from the previous week as bullish chart signals had speculators covering short positions and putting on new longs.

Hard red winter wheat moved from a net short of about 11,100 to a net long of 6,300 contracts. That marked the first net long fund position for the market in two-and-a-half years. In MIAX spring wheat, the managed money net short position was cut from about 18,700 contracts to 9,800.

The post Speculative net long position grows in canola appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

Why it matters: A large fund position can sway the futures markets

The net managed money long position in canola futures came in at 7,663 contracts as of Feb. 17 (59,074 long/51,409 short). That compares with the previous week when the speculative position was evenly balanced, as managed money traders put on more fresh longs than shorts during the week. The net fund position was last in positive territory in September 2025.

Total open interest in canola futures increased to 305,730 contracts, from 247,124 the previous week.

U.S. futures

Fund traders grew their net long position in soybeans at the Chicago Board of Trade by roughly 43,000 contracts, with the net long rising to just under 159,000 contracts.

The net short position in corn came in at about 42,300 contracts on Feb. 17, down by 15,200 contracts on the week.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of 69,600 contracts. The net short in hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 11,100 contracts. In MIAX spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a net short of around 18,700 contracts as of Feb. 17.

The post Funds move to net long in canola appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

Why it matters: A large fund position can sway the futures markets

The net managed money short position in canola futures came in at 42,379 contracts as of Feb. 3 (40,584 long/82,963 short). That was down by about 10,000 contracts from the previous week on a combination of short covering and new longs going on the books. It marks the smallest net short in canola in two months.

Total open interest in canola futures increased to 296,432 contracts, from 254,979 the previous week.

U.S. futures

Fund traders grew their net long position in soybeans at the Chicago Board of Trade by roughly 10,000 contracts, with the net long rising to just over 29,000 contracts from about 19,800 the previous week.

The net short position in corn came in at about 80,600 contracts on Feb. 3, holding relatively steady on the week.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of 81,500 contracts. The net short in hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 7,800 contracts. In MIAX spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a net short of around 20,800 contracts as of Feb. 3.

The post Funds exiting short positions in canola appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

Corn and wheat futures held near unchanged.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture this week confirmed that China bought more than 1.5 million tonnes of American soybeans. Traders said they had largely expected deals of that size before the USDA reported them, and they had factored China’s buying into the market already.

“They buy, and it’s already behind us,” said Don Roose, president of U.S. Commodities in Iowa.

The January soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was 2-1/2 cents higher at $11.25 a bushel at the close. That was down from Tuesday’s peak of $11.69-1/2, the highest since June 2024.

China’s soybean purchases remain far off the 12 million tonnes that U.S. officials said it promised to buy by year-end. The U.S. also faces tough competition for global export sales from cheaper soybeans in Brazil, analysts said.

Some traders said China could bear the cost of making larger purchases of U.S. soybeans in order to preserve the trade truce agreed with Washington in late October but expected the market to remain cautious until volumes are confirmed.

“We wouldn’t be surprised if Chinese purchases from the U.S. are closer to a trickle than a flood,” said Rod Baker, an analyst at Bendigo Agribusiness Insights.

The USDA reported on Thursday that China also bought 132,000 tonnes of U.S. white wheat. The deal failed to spark a strong rally in CBOT wheat futures as global supplies were plentiful, traders said.

CBOT March wheat was down one cent at $5.39 a bushel, while March corn futures dipped 1/4 cent to $4.37-1/2 a bushel.

— Reporting by Tom Polansek, Peter Hobson and Gus Trompiz

The post U.S. grains: Soybeans mixed on doubts over Chinese demand appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

Why it matters: A large fund position can sway the futures markets

Reporting was halted during the 43-day shutdown that began Oct. 1, and backdated reports will be released twice a week over the next two months until the data is current by late January.

The net managed money long position in canola futures came in at 13,741 contracts as of Sept. 30 (47,649 long/61,400 short). That was up by about 9,000 contracts from the previous week and marks the largest net short in canola since April.

Canola futures trended steadily higher during the data blackout — a sign that the speculative money moved back to the long side in the oilseed.

Fund traders were also short soybeans at the Chicago Board of Trade ahead of the government shutdown. The net short of about 31,600 contracts in soybeans as of Sept. 30 was the largest short position since early August. Soybean futures also moved higher since late September.

The net short position in corn came in at about 129,300 contracts on Sept. 30.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of 96,200 contracts. The net short in hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 54,100 contracts. In MIAX spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a net short of around 26,200 contracts as of Sept. 30.

The post Funds held large net short in canola before U.S. shutdown appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

The Canadian Grain Commission reported wheat exports for the week ended Oct. 12 at 710,500 tonnes, well ahead of the 420,900 tonnes shipped the previous week. So far this marketing year, 4.282 million tonnes of wheat were shipped for export, a new record for this time of year, compared to 3.749 million the year before.

The CGC also reported that 80 per cent of its CWRS samples were in the top grade, while another 18 per cent were graded No. 2. However, the Canadian Western Amber Durum (CWAD) crop saw 22 per cent making the top grade, 27 per cent at No. 2 and 37 per cent at No. 3.

CWRS wheat was down C$2.10 to up C$4.90 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices were between C$239.60/tonne in southeast Saskatchewan to C$266.10 in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels ranged from between C$37.70 to C$64.20/tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

Accounting for exchange rates and adjusting Canadian prices to U.S. dollars (C$1=US$0.7118), CWRS bids were from US$170.50 to US$189.40/tonne. Currency adjusted basis levels ranged from US$12.50 to US$31.40 below the futures. If the futures were converted to Canadian dollars, basis levels would be C$8.90 to C$22.30 below the futures.

Meanwhile, CPRS prices were up C$3.50 to C$6.10 per tonne. The lowest average bid for CPRS was C$216.30 in southeast Saskatchewan, while the highest average bid was C$240.10 in southern Alberta.

The average prices for CWAD were unchanged to up C$0.70 per tonne with bids between C$277.40 in northwest Saskatchewan to C$291.90 in western Manitoba.

The December spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts are based off of, was quoted at US$5.4950 per bushel on Oct. 16, down 7.5 cents.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPRS in Canada. The December contract was down one cent at US$4.8875/bu.

The December Chicago soft red contract lost four cents at US$5.0250/bu.

The Canadian dollar declined one-quarter of a cent to close at 71.18 U.S. cents on Oct. 16.

The post Prairie Wheat Weekly: Most Western Canadian bids higher appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

The net managed money long position in canola futures came in at 1,495 contracts as of Sept. 9 (49,392 long/50,887 short). That compares with the net long of 19,054 posted the previous week as speculators liquidated long positions and put on new bearish bets. The last time the managed money fund position was net short was in April 2025.

Open interest in the canola market was up by 11,170 contracts on the week at 244,031 contracts.

Fund traders also moved from a net long to a net short in the soybean market at the Chicago Board of Trade. The net short of about 13,400 contracts compares with the net long the previous week of 11,400. Meanwhile, the net long position in soyoil was down by about 10,000 at roughly 4,400 contracts.

The net short position in corn, at about 99,500 contracts, was up by 4,000 on the week.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of 93,300 contracts. The net short in hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 52,200 contracts. In MIAX spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a net short of around 24,400 contracts as of Sept. 9.

The post Fund traders flip to net short in canola futures appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.