Ukraine is a traditional corn grower and exporter and exports are expected at around 22 million tons in the 2024/25 season.

“In the current conditions, we cannot compete with American suppliers on the European market,” UAC said in a statement, adding that U.S.-origin corn was traded at $230 per tons versus $256-$260 per ton for Ukrainian corn.

“Ukrainian corn is sold in small batches of 2,000 or 5,000 tons mainly to Greece and Cyprus. For comparison, the U.S. exports only large volumes of 25,000 tons or more,” the union said.

UAC noted that Ukraine already had limited volumes of corn available for exports in remaining months of this season and it did not exceed 1.5 million tons.

Ukraine exported 20.6 million tons of corn as of June 2, official data showed.

The union said corn prices would gradually decline to around $215 later in June and from the second half of the month demand could fall and the market would focus on the new harvest.

Ukraine harvested 27 million tons of corn in 2024 but the crop may decrease to 26 million tons in 2025 mainly due to unfavourable weather.

Farm minister Vitaliy Koval told Reuters on Tuesday that Ukrainian grain harvest may decrease by 10 per cent to around 51 million tons, according to the most pessimistic estimates.

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Total exports of all the major grain, oilseed and pulse crops for 2024/25 hit 2.965 million tonnes as of Sep. 1, which compares with 2.052 million tonnes at the same point the previous year.

Canola exports-to-date of 1.005 million tonnes compare with only 297,100 tonnes through four weeks of the previous crop year. Wheat exports of 1.310 million tonnes in August were up by five per cent on the year.

Other notable increases included corn, soybeans and barley. Corn exports of 168,300 were up by 173 per cent compared to the same point in 2023/24. Soybean exports came in at 67,200 tonnes after Canada exported only 200 tonnes of soybeans in August 2024. Barley exports of 67,600 tonnes were well above the 8,600 tonnes reported the same time the previous year.

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The government and traders annually sign a memorandum in which officials promise to maintain the existing terms of trade and not restrict exports within the agreed volume while traders undertake not to exceed this volume.

The ministry has said the wheat is the only agricultural commodities export that will be restricted.

“The parties agreed to further monitor the volume of grain exports on a monthly basis and, if necessary, to adjust the export ceiling in January 2025,” a ministry statement said.

Ukraine exported 18.3 million tons of wheat in the 2023/24 season after harvesting more than 22 million tons.

This year, the ministry says, the wheat crop could shrink to 21.8 million tons because of a heatwave this summer.

Wheat exports had reached 3.59 million tons as of Aug. 30, the ministry said last week, up from 1.06 million tons by the same date in 2023.

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Ukraine is a major global wheat and corn grower and before Russia’s invasion in 2022 the country exported about 6 million tons of grain alone per month via the Black Sea.

Grain sales are a crucial revenue source and while global prices are weak, Ukraine’s cash-strapped farmers have little choice but to push ahead with exports because they need to fund the next winter sowing season.

Ukraine doubled food exports in July to over 4.2 million metric tons from the same month last year, according to data from Ukraine’s UGA traders’ union, despite intensified Russian attacks on Odesa, a key Black Sea export hub, and Izmail, a major port along the Danube River taking grain into Europe.

Ukraine has not yet reported the destinations of its exports in July, but last season it exported most of its wheat to Spain, Egypt and Indonesia, with its corn mostly heading for Spain and China.

The surge comes despite this season’s drop in output caused by war-related disruptions, and there is no guarantee that Kyiv can sustain the trend into the full 2024/25 season.

“We are doing everything to make business feel comfortable even in wartime conditions,” Dmytro Barinov, deputy head of Ukraine’s Seaport Authority, told Reuters.

The exports are a combination of new season wheat plus corn from stocks following last year’s bumper harvest.

So far, Ukraine has exported 3.7 million tons of agricultural goods in July through Odesa and 569,000 tons via the Danube, export data showed. That compared with 291,000 tons via Odesa and 2.07 million tons through the Danube in July 2023.

There were six shipments of corn from Ukraine’s other two operational Black Sea ports of Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi in June and July to Rotterdam, Europe’s busiest port, and Spain’s Cartegna, separate LSEG shipping data showed.

Since July, Ukraine has also shipped cargoes to China, Egypt and Turkey, separate data from Kpler showed.

Despite last month’s stronger sales, overall exports for the 2024/25 season are expected to fall because of unfavourable weather and the war’s impact, the ASAP agricultural consultancy said.

“We expect that grain exports from Ukraine could plunge by 14.5 million tons per year and touch almost a decade low of 35 million tons,” ASAP said.

Ports targeted

Ukraine has managed to create a shipping corridor after a U.N.-backed Black Sea grain export initiative collapsed last year. Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has been forced to move nearly all its combat-ready warships from occupied Crimea to other locations.

While the improved security situation has lowered insurance and freight rates, making exports more competitive, Kyiv’s challenge is to ensure its ports that are accessible can ship out cargoes.

Ukraine has sustained multiple missile and drone attacks in recent weeks, some of which have targeted Odesa and Izmail.

Even as ships have so far avoided any major damage, Ukrainian officials say port infrastructure is being targeted.

“The Russians are well aware of that and they’re hitting the weak spots,” said Barinov with Ukraine’s Seaport Authority.

“They’re hitting with precision missiles, they’re deliberately destroying our ability to export, to process.”

Barinov and other shipping officials said Russia was avoiding strikes at the international sea lanes outside of Ukrainian port limits, keeping escalation contained.

Ukraine’s military assists ships entering and exiting ports, with captains operating under specific safety instructions, the country’s navy chief Vice-Admiral Oleksiy Neizhpapa told Reuters.

“Ukrainian air defence forces cover these corridors and ports. All assets, from air defence groups to missile systems along the coast, contribute to this effort,” Neizhpapa said.

Nonetheless, Ukraine has to cope with a multitude of other difficulties, including energy blackouts that disrupt port operations and exports.

Munro Anderson, head of operations at marine war risk and insurance specialist Vessel Protect, part of Pen Underwriting, said Russian strikes at targets inside Ukraine while less frequent than earlier in the war, continued to pressure Kyiv.

“Such attacks persist in applying pressure on the commercial maritime environment in Ukraine and thus achieve the Russian intent of eroding Ukrainian ability to fully capitalise on the potential output from these ports.”

Additional war risk premiums for ships entering Ukrainian ports have been quoted in recent months at up to 1.2 per cent of the value of the ship with discounts that could mean a lower rate, insurance sources said. Those premiums spiked to as much as 3 per cent in November after a missile strike damaged a ship in Pivdennyi.

This still works out at hundreds of thousands of dollars in additional estimated costs for a seven-day voyage and those costs could increase if security conditions deteriorated.

Industry sources said war underwriters were keeping the situation under review in the light of the recent attacks.

“Increased shelling of ships in corridor ports may prompt reinsurers to revise their war risks insurance rates,” said Maksym Dubovyi, managing partner with insurance broker Atria.

During its year of operation, Ukraine’s sea corridor has enabled 2,059 ships to deliver 57.7 million tons of cargoes to 46 countries, including 39 million tons of agricultural products, said Neil Roberts, head of marine and aviation at the Lloyd’s Market Association, which represents the interests of all underwriting businesses in the Lloyd’s of London insurance market.

“Individual underwriters will decide the rate as appropriate in the light of events and take their own view on the risk.”

– Reporting by Jonathan Saul and Tom Balmforth in London, Pavel Polityuk in Kyiv.

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Canada has exported 1.286 million tonnes of lentils during the crop year-to-date, running about 25 per cent behind the pace at the same time a year ago, according to the latest Statistics Canada trade data through the end of April. Of that total, green lentils accounted for 337,500 tonnes and red lentils at 690,000 tonnes.

Lentil exports during the month of 93,200 tonnes were down from 121,000 tonnes the previous month.

India has been the top destination for Canadian lentils during the marketing year, at 447,500 tonnes through nine months. Turkey had been the largest buyer at the same point a year ago, but their purchases have fallen off sharply in 2023/24, taking only 119,600 tonnes so far.

Canadian pea exports in April came in at only 60,060 tonnes, roughly half of what moved the previous month. However, year-to-date movement through nine months of the marketing year of 2.212 million tonnes were slightly ahead of the 2.178 million tonnes at the same point in 2022/23. Yellow peas account for just over three-quarters of the pea exports.

China holds the top spot for Canadian pea exports through April, at 973,100 tonnes, with India in second place at 730,000 tonnes. India was nonexistent as a pea buyer in 2022/23, with cuts to their import tariffs accounting for the increased movement this year.

Canadian chickpea exports in April came in at 10,800 tonnes, which was down from about 17,900 the previous month. Year-to-date shipments of 165,700 tonnes are running about one per cent behind the year ago pace.

Large green lentils are currently trading in the 72 to 78 cents per pound range in Western Canada, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire data, with new crop bids around 52 to 55 cents. Old crop red lentils top out at 36 cents per pound, with the new crop only slightly lower at 33 cents.

Green peas delivered to the elevator are trading at roughly C$15.00 to C$18.50 per bushel, with yellow peas in the C$11.40 to C$13.00 per bushel area. New crop pricing for the two crops can be found as high as C$14.50 and C$12.35 per bushel respectively.

Large calibre Kabuli chickpeas are currently trading at around 43 to 45 cents per pound according to Prairie Ag Hotwire, with new crop bids topping out at 42 cents per pound.

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“Another 13 vessels were diverted this week taking the total cargo diverted away from the Red Sea route to around 5.2 million metric tons of grains in about 90 ships since the attacks started late last year,” said Ishan Bhanu, lead agricultural commodities analyst at data provider and analyst Kpler.

About 7 million tons per month of grain cargoes usually transit the Suez Canal into the Red Sea, but bulk and other shipping has dropped significantly as Iran-backed Houthi militants have continued attacks on shipping despite U.S.-led air strikes on Houthi positions in Yemen.

“U.S. and European cargoes continue to avoid the Red Sea,” Bhanu said. “Not a single vessel in the Atlantic carrying grain to Asia is heading towards the Suez Canal.”

The Atlantic shipments would include large U.S. grain exports to Asia.

“Almost all cargo originating in the Black Sea, mainly exports out of Russia and Romania, continues to travel through Suez and the Red Sea,” Bhanu said. “Only three such vessels diverted to take the longer route among dozens sailing.”

Vessels in the Red Sea broadcast messages on the automatic identification system (AIS) to seek safe passage to show they are not involved in the Middle East conflict, including ships under Chinese ownership, he said.

Commodity traders said it was still possible to find bulk carriers for Red Sea grain shipments.

“There are shipowners willing to take the risk,” a German grain trader said. “But it is clear the air strikes and naval forces are not enough to end the attacks on ships in the immediate future.”

–Reporting for Reuters by Michael Hogan.

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The European Commission last week said it would extend the suspension of import duties on Ukrainian exports, originally put in place to support the economy after Russia’s invasion two years ago, for another year to June 2025.

However, it also proposed measures to limit agricultural imports from Ukraine and offer greater flexibility on rules for fallow land in a bid to quell protests by angry farmers in France and other EU members.

“These preferences were particularly important for Ukraine’s agricultural sector… enabling Ukrainian exporters to maintain production and jobs and ensure foreign exchange earnings in 2022-2023,” the UCAB business association said on Facebook.

UCAB said exports of food products in 2023 totalled $21.9 billion and accounted for 61 per cent of all exports from Ukraine.

At the same time, the EU’s share of total agricultural products from Ukraine in 2023 reached 56.6 per cent or $12.4 billion.

UCAB said that the issue of maintaining the most open access to the EU market would be vital for the country’s trade balance in the coming years and the survival of Ukraine’s agricultural sector.

“The agricultural community calls on the authorities to facilitate the continuation of preferential access to the EU market for Ukrainian agricultural products and to establish a direct dialogue with European partners,” it noted.

The EU suspended import duties, quotas and trade defense measures in June 2022 but cheap Ukrainian grain exports have since sparked protests by governments, farmers and truckers in neighbouring countries such as Poland and Hungary.

Ukraine is a global producer and exporter of agricultural products and has traditionally used sea routes to supply food to countries in North Africa, the Middle East and Asia.

However, after the Russian invasion blocked the country’s main Black Sea ports, Ukraine was forced to divert its cargoes through land borders with some goods settling in neighbouring markets and depressing prices.

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Prior to Russia’s invasion in February 2022 Ukraine exported about 6 million tons of food per month via the Black Sea.

It now relies on the corridor along its western Black Sea coast near Romania and Bulgaria, its small ports on the Danube River, and exports over land via eastern Europe.

Kyiv believes it has managed to dislodge Russian forces from the western part of the Black Sea, securing grain exports which are crucial to its economy as well as important imports.

“Thanks to the work of the Ukrainian Navy, which ensured the functioning of the Ukrainian sea corridor, Ukraine shipped a record amount of agricultural products by water in December,” Spike Brokers, which tracks and publishes export statistics, said on the Telegram messaging app.

Via its small ports on the Danube River Ukraine exported 1.3 million tons of food in December, Spike Brokers said.

Ukraine has exported 15 million metric tons of cargo through its Black Sea corridor since creating it in August, including 10 million tons of agricultural goods, a senior government official said this week.

Ukraine launched the corridor after Moscow withdrew from the U.N.-brokered deal in July and threatened to treat all vessels as potential military targets.

Maximum monthly volume exported via the UN-brokered corridor was 4.2 million tons in October 2022, Deputy Infrastructure Minister Yuriy Vaskov told foreign diplomats last year.

Ukraine, a major global grain grower and exporter, expects an exportable surplus of 50 million tons in the 2023/24 July-June season.

The country had exported 19.9 million tons of grain as of Jan 10 with January’s volumes exceeding those from a year earlier.

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The St. Lawrence Seaway Management Corporation (SLSMC) and Unifor, the union representing the workers, announced the new agreement separately Sunday evening. Unionized workers had been on strike since just after midnight the previous Sunday.

SLSMC said Sunday it would start its “recovery program” immediately and would start passing ships “progressively” Monday as employees were due to return to work starting at 7 a.m. ET.

Details of the proposed agreement are expected to be released once the deal passes a ratification vote. SLSMC CEO Terence Bowles said the agreement is “fair for workers and secures a strong and stable future for the Seaway.”

“For the first time in 55 years seaway workers took the very hard decision to go on strike. They did so to fight for a more respectful workplace and for an agreement that reflects today’s economic times,” Unifor national president Lana Payne said in the union’s release.

“They have shown that the best deal is reached at the bargaining table, and I congratulate the committee on their outstanding work on behalf of their members.”

Federal Labour Minister Seamus O’Regan, in a post to social media platform X on Sunday evening, thanked the SLSMC, union and federal mediators “for your commitment to the negotiating table.”

SLSMC had sought a ruling from the Canada Industrial Relations Board as to whether Seaway workers would be obligated to continue to serve bulk grain vessels, but a CIRB ruling hadn’t yet been released as of Monday morning.

The Canada Labour Code requires longshore workers to serve bulk grain ships in the event of a strike or lockout, such as during the B.C. ports strike earlier this year.

After the Seaway strike began the previous Sunday, groups such as Grain Farmers of Ontario had called on the federal government to ensure continued grain movement.

“This is a crucial time for the grain harvest in Ontario and the closure of the St. Lawrence Seaway could mean that, in a matter of days, many farmers will have nowhere to deliver grain to and we risk the grain staying on the field too long to be viable,” GFO chair Brendan Byrne had said in a release Oct. 23.

“We need governments at every level to do whatever they can to ensure the grain keeps moving. Farmers need it. Our food system needs it. Our economy needs it.”

GFO had also warned that a prolonged strike could back up grain in Western Canada, if port terminals at Thunder Bay were unable to move grain into the Seaway system before freeze-up.

“This strike served as an important reminder of the risks inherent in our export transport system and how quickly a chain reaction can be set off that will have dire consequences,” Byrne said in a separate GFO release Monday, after the tentative deal was reached.

“We urge all parties to continue working together to ensure closures of the Seaway do not happen in the future.”

Fertilizer Canada, which represents Canadian fertilizer producers and sellers, had said in a separate release Saturday that the Seaway “is less than 60 days away from closing for winter, which limits the time available to work through the backlog caused by the strike that compounds each day.”

Exports of Canadian potash were “heavily impacted” by delays from the longshore workers’ strike at the West Coast in July and had been relying on eastern ports, especially Thunder Bay, to “support recovery,” Fertilizer Canada said.

The Seaway also handles imports of fertilizer for farmers in Eastern Canada, who “have a short window to apply fertilizer and any disruption to the supply chain can threaten getting fertilizer to farmers in time and jeopardize food security,” the organization said. — Glacier FarmMedia Network

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In summer, Moscow quit a U.N.-brokered deal that had allowed exports of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea safely. Since then, Russian forces have hit six civilian ships and 150 port and grain facilities during 17 attacks, destroying crops headed for export, Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said in a statement.

“This is Russia’s attempt to deepen the food crisis in the countries which depend on Ukrainian products,” Kubrakov said.

The damage on Ukrainian ports reduced the country’s grain export potential by 40 per cent, he said. Russia has attacked port facilities on both the Black Sea and Danube River.

Ukraine is one of the world’s largest wheat and corn exporters.

The Russian defence ministry could not be immediately reached for comment.

Kubrakov said 21 grain-loaded vessels have already used a new “humanitarian” grain corridor in the Black Sea that Kyiv established in August.

He said that under the previous U.N. Black Sea Grain Initiative, Ukraine had exported 33 million tonnes of grain, with 60 per cent of that shipped to African and Asian countries.

— Reporting for Reuters by Olena Harmash.

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