Alberta’s harvest for major crops was 7.7 per cent complete by Aug. 20, compared to 2.3 per cent one week earlier. The five-year average was 8.1 per cent while the 10-year average was 4.8 per cent. The south region was the farthest along at 14.5 per cent, followed by the central region at 11.8 per cent, the Peace region at 3.4 per cent, the northeast region at 3.1 per cent and the northwest at 1.5 per cent.

Nearly half of the province’s field pea crop was combined at 46.7 per cent, while the barley crop was 11.7 per cent harvested. The spring wheat harvest was 4.7 per cent complete, while oats were at 2.1 per cent and canola was at 0.2 per cent.

While major cereals were at the end of dough development, major crops were rated at 40 per cent good to excellent across Alberta, below the five- and 10-year averages of 55 and 57 per cent, respectively. Crop conditions were 54 per cent good to excellent in the Peace region, 52 per cent in the south, 44 per cent in the northeast, 28 per cent in the northwest and 21 per cent in the central region.

Some parts of the south, central and northeast regions only received three millimetres of rain during the week, while a small area in the Peace region had more than 50 mm. The majority of heavy precipitation was in the northwest and Peace regions.

Provincial surface soil moisture was rated at 32.1 per cent good to excellent, similar to the previous week, but below the five-year average of 47.1 per cent and the 10-year average of 50.9 per cent. Subsurface soil moisture was rated 27 per cent good to excellent, up two points from the week before.

Provincial pasture ratings declined four points from the previous week at 27.3 per cent good to excellent, but those in the Peace region improved by one point at 59 per cent. The five-year provincial average was 50.8 per cent while the 10-year average was 49.4 per cent.

Tame hay conditions across Alberta worsened by two points at 27.3 per cent good to excellent, well below the five-year average of 50.8 per cent and the 10-year average of 49.4 per cent. There were reports of second cut growth being very minimal with hay crops flowering at only six to eight inches tall. Poor yielding cereal crops continued to be cut for use as a feed source.

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Natalie Hasell, a weather preparedness meteorologist for Environment Canada in Winnipeg, said most regions of British Columbia, Alberta, and southern and central Saskatchewan are in the warm weather already, as of Wednesday. Southern Manitoba residents will be able to bask in similar unseasonably warm temperatures Thursday.

“We’ve got a good stretch of dry, sunny weather,” she said.

A thermal ridge is bringing welcome relief, after four weeks of cold, wet weather prevented many farmers from getting crops off fields.

Temperatures should continue at seasonal levels or above for the next seven days across most regions of the Prairies, Hasell said.

The harvest problems are particularly acute in central and northern areas of the grain belt and farmers in those regions should see harvest windows appear.

“This will be an opportunity for farmers who are delayed … they will be able to do that over the next seven days,” Hasell said.

After that, the weather returns to seasonal, except in northern areas of western Alberta and B.C., which will continue to enjoy warmer weather later into next week.

She cautioned the 14-day forecast is a long time off, so the situation may yet change, but the prospects currently look good.

The Saskatoon area, for example, is currently experiencing above-normal temperatures, and will see temperatures slide back to normal later his week.

“But we see a return to warmer than that very quickly. Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday. By the time we get to Monday next week, we’re back to 15 C; Tuesday is 15 C in the current forecast.

“It’s a good time for those who were delayed and a good time to get ready for what’s coming next,” she said.

Northern Manitoba and far northeastern Saskatchewan residents may find themselves left out in the cold, however, as they remain on the cold side of the front.

Across the Prairies, Environment Canada forecasts unseasonable warmth for many areas.

Calgary temperatures are projected to fall into the low teens over the weekend, but then rise to 21 C by Tuesday.

Edmonton forecasts show temperatures in the mid-teens for the weekend and through to the following Tuesday.

In Alberta’s Peace region, Grande Prairie is expected to reach highs of 10 C to 12 C during the weekend, reaching highs of 13 C by Tuesday.

In Saskatchewan, Regina-area residents can expect similar temperatures to those outlined for Saskatoon, reaching 16 C on Tuesday.

Even the northeastern part of the province, where residents may see temperatures fall back down to 6 C by Saturday, should see a return to temperatures of about 14 C by Tuesday.

In Manitoba, Brandon-area residents will likely see mid-week warm temperatures decline to about 6 C by Saturday, but rebound to highs of about 11 C by Tuesday.

South of Winnipeg, at Morris, temperatures are expected to reach 19 C by Thursday, fall to 6 C by Saturday and climb to 9 C by Tuesday.

In Dauphin, this week’s unseasonable warmth will likely be replaced by cooler temperatures of about 4 C on Saturday, with warmer air returning next week, as temperatures of about 12 C are expected for Tuesday.

— Terry Fries writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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While cold, wet conditions continued to cause harvest delays, as noted in the weekly provincial crop reports, there were pockets where farmers were getting some crop off.

“Some high-moisture canola is likely making its way into the elevator, which is bringing in some steady hedges,” said Keith Ferley of RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg.

Weekly data from the Canadian Grain Commission showed “a lot of canola came up the driveway,” despite the delays, he said.

Fund traders who had been covering short positions earlier in October had also dropped away from the buy side and were back putting on short positions, according to Ferley.

The November canola contract made a brief move above the psychological $500 per tonne mark during the week, but settled Wednesday at $496.80 per tonne.

“The losses in soy complex are not helping at all,” Ferley added, pointing to recent declines in Chicago Board of Trade soybeans and soyoil. He said a “major risk-off tone in the outside markets,” was also spilling into canola.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture releases updated production estimates on Thursday, and any surprises in its data could provide some short-term direction for canola.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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“The question is when will it be marketable? When will it be out of the field and in condition to market?” said Allen Pirness of Market Place Commodities in Lethbridge.

Wet weather over the last few weeks has stalled harvest progress across parts of the Prairies, and with snow falling in parts of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba during the first week of October, the quality of wheat and barley left sitting in fields continues to deteriorate.

As it deteriorates, more of the crops are ending up in the feed grain category.

The latest crop report from the Alberta government said that as of Sept. 25, only 35 per cent of the provincial spring wheat crop was harvested and 42.7 per cent of the barley crop in the bin. Harvest progress had basically stalled during the week across the province.

Cheap corn from the U.S. has also been making its way into Alberta feedlots lately, which is helping to keep a lid on prices. Feed barley, feed wheat and corn are all sitting around the $245 per tonne mark, according to Pirness.

The corn price “doesn’t allow for barley and wheat to get too much above corn, or else we’ll just see a bigger replacement,” he said.

The snow is causing some issues for grain deliveries, according to Pirness. Overall, however, it isn’t affecting the market much right now.

“There’s some near-term demand where stuff can’t show up and they’re buying what they can to make it through until stuff starts showing up more regularly. It’s not critical; there still seems to be enough grain getting to market,” Pirness said.

— Ashley Robinson writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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Barley in the key cattle feeding area of Lethbridge, Alta. is currently trading at about $170 per tonne, up by about $10 over the past few weeks, said Jim Beusekom of Market Place Commodities.

Feed wheat in the same area is “a two-tiered market,” as supplies with low vomitoxin levels trade at a considerable premium to high-vomitoxin wheat.

“Good feed wheat is at about $175 (per tonne), and vomi-wheat is at about $145,” said Beusekom, noting better-quality grains have rallied, while the poorer-quality stuff has held steady.

Adverse weather and resulting harvest delays have left about 20 per cent of grain crops in the fields in Saskatchewan and Alberta, a fact which was behind some of the recent strength in the grain markets, according to Beusekom.

However, he added, prices were also following their typical seasonal trends.

“The seasonals tend to peak out at the end of October, early November. Then it likes to trade sideways through November/December, and then down through January/February.”

From a demand side, it’s “not great, but I’d call it decent,” he added.

For the grain still to be harvested, Beusekom said there were two camps, with some farmers still optimistic the harvest would get done, while others brace for a spring harvest.

“It will depend on what kind of weather we get in November,” he said.

Dry weather could help some fields get harvested, he said, but added that the window was closing.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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