Shares fell more than two per cent in extended trading.

The Tampa, Florida-based fertilizer producer warned in January that an unusually sharp decline in North American fertilizer demand during the quarter would pressure sales and cash flow.

Demand for fertilizers has been under pressure as farmers cut nutrient use amid tight budgets, while an early onset of winter shortened the application window.

Sales volumes in the Phosphates segment fell to 1.3 million tonnes from 1.6 million tonnes a year earlier, the company said.

Global shipments could reach record levels

Phosphate markets have tightened as Chinese exports remain largely absent after Beijing extended its phosphate export restrictions, Mosaic said, adding that it expects restrictions to stay in place through at least the first half of the year.

“Like phosphate, potash prices have shifted higher, and current expectations suggest global shipments could reach record levels in 2026,” Mosaic added.

The company said it expects full-year phosphate production volumes to be at or above 7 million tonnes and potash production volumes to be about 9 million tonnes.

Mosaic forecast first-quarter phosphate sales volumes of 1.7 million to 1.9 million tonnes and potash sales volumes of 2.0 million to 2.2 million tonnes.

It also forecast capital spending of about $1.5 billion (C$2.06 billion) for the year.

The company reported adjusted earnings of 22 cents per share for the quarter ended December 31, compared with analysts’ average estimate of 47cents per share, according to data compiled by LSEG.

— Reporting by Katha Kalia and Sumit Saha in Bengaluru

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Demand fell as farmers cut fertilizer use amid tight budgets, while an early onset of winter shortened the application window for the products.

Market conditions were particularly challenging for phosphates, which were less affordable relative to potash, Mosaic said.

Phosphate shipments in North America were down about 20 per cent from a year earlier, while potash demand was only modestly weaker, it said.

The U.S. fertilizer producer reported phosphate sales of about 1.3 million tonnes for the fourth quarter, below its previous forecast of 1.7 million to 1.9 million tonnes. Potash sales of roughly 2.2 million tonnes were also lower than its prior projection of 2.3 million to 2.6 million tonnes.

In Brazil, Mosaic said tighter credit conditions and increased competition, including imports of lower-analysis phosphate from China, weighed on demand and margins, leaving fourth-quarter volumes at its Mosaic Fertilizantes unit well below plans.

Fertilizanter sales were roughly 9 million tonnes for the full-year 2025, flat year-on-year but reflected a broader downturn, the company said.

Mosaic is set to report its fourth-quarter results on February 24.

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Shares of the company rose 1.8 per cent after the bell.

The results come as the agrichemical industry braces for potential fallout from U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on most imports, which are expected to lower demand and curb farmers’ spending.

The company also raised its production forecast for potash for the current year, as it expects that improved demand will push prices higher.

It now expects potash production to range between 9 million tonnes and 9.4 million tonnes in 2025, compared to its previous projection of 8.7 million tonnes to 9.1 million tonnes.

Production cost improvements helped boost adjusted core profit in Mosaic’s South America fertilizer segment to $122 million (C$168 million) in the first quarter, up from $83 million a year earlier.

The segment also benefited from a modest increase in sales volumes, reporting net sales of $934 million (C$1.29 billion) in the quarter, compared to $886 million the previous year.

The Tampa, Florida-based company reported adjusted earnings of 49 cents per share for the quarter ended March 31, compared with analysts’ average estimate of 45 cents per share, according to data compiled by LSEG.

—Reporting by Vallari Srivastava in Bengaluru

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Milton, which led to at least 17 reported deaths, added to piles of debris following Hurricane Helene.

Mosaic said it will provide an update on production losses from Milton and Helene as recovery efforts progress. Early assessments show limited damage to its facilities and products in warehouses, according to a company statement. It added that power has been restored to all facilities.

Mosaic said on Friday that water supporting its storage of a waste byproduct from fertilizer manufacturing at a facility in Riverview, Florida, probably made its way into Tampa Bay following a downpour from Milton. The industrial byproduct, phosphogypsum, is known to emit radon, a cancer-causing radioactive gas.

The company said on Monday that “no significant environmental impacts occurred” due to the recent storms.

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The discharge of possibly more than 17,500 gallons from Mosaic’s facility in Riverview, a fast-growing Tampa suburb, raised potential environmental concerns.

The industrial byproduct, phosphogypsum, is known to emit radon, a cancer-causing radioactive gas.

Mosaic said a storage system for water around a pile of phosphogypsum became overwhelmed in Riverview. The site received nearly 15 inches of rain during Hurricane Milton less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene, the company said in a statement.

Water quality impacts in Tampa Bay are expected to be “modest,” if any, Mosaic said.

The company addressed the overflow issue on Thursday and it was not continuing on Friday, it said in the statement. “We’ve been in constant communication with regulators who are onsite today.”

The affected phosphogypsum pile is closed, meaning the company is not adding new material to it, Mosaic said.

Phosphogypsum contains radium, which decays to form radon gas, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said, noting that radium and radon are radioactive and can cause cancer.

The EPA requires that phosphogypsum be managed in engineered piles or stacks to limit public exposure from radon emissions.

The EPA told Reuters the Florida Department of Environmental Protection regulates the design, construction, operation and maintenance of phosphogypsum stack systems and they must continue to comply with all regulatory requirements.

The Florida Department of Environmental Protection had no immediate comment.

Mosaic, which mines phosphate rock in Florida and produces about three-quarters of North America’s phosphate fertilizers, said it idled Florida operations in anticipation of Milton.

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The Category 4 storm closed in on Florida’s west coast as millions of people along a stretch of more than 300 miles (483 km) of coastline were under evacuation orders ahead of its expected landfall near Tampa Bay around midnight.

Milton is the second major storm to hit Florida in two weeks after Hurricane Helene came ashore in the Big Bend region on Sept. 26 and carved a path of destruction across agricultural areas of the Southeast.

Fertilizer maker Mosaic said it has idled Florida operations. The company, which mines phosphate rock in the state and produces about three-quarters of North America’s phosphate fertilizers, said last week that a facility in Riverview, Florida, was offline because of a storm surge from Helene.

Milton is expected to affect an even larger number of Florida phosphate facilities than Helene, said Veronica Nigh, senior economist for The Fertilizer Institute, an industry group.

“The lack of processing and phosphate shipments that will occur as a result of Helene and now Milton will further tighten the phosphate market,” Nigh said.

As much as 42 per cent of U.S. ammonium phosphate, 32 per cent of U.S. phosphate rock, and half of U.S. wet-processed phosphoric acid production capacity is located near Tampa Bay, Nigh said. About 40 per cent of all U.S. phosphate fertilizer exports and 27 per cent of total fertilizer exports go through Port Tampa Bay, she said.

Flour producer Ardent Mills closed its Port Redwing mill south of Tampa. The facility, opened in 2022, can produce up to 1.8 million pounds of flour a day from imported grain or wheat grown in the Midwest and Southeast.

Global agribusiness Cargill Inc preemptively closed its salt-packaging and animal-nutrition facility in Milton’s path, the company said.

—Reporting for Reuters by Karl Plume and Tom Polansek in Chicago, and P.J. Huffstutter in Fort Wayne, Indiana

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Although prices of fertilizers such as phosphates and potash decreased during the reported quarter, it did not boost demand as farmers waited for pricing trends to stabilize. Higher prices caused by a supply crisis due to sanctions on Russia and Belarus had curbed demand last year.

Mosaic, the world’s largest producer of finished phosphate products, saw a 5.9 per cent rise in sales volumes of phosphates and a 5.6 per cent increase in sales volumes of potash from last year.

The Tampa-based company reported earnings of $1.14 per share, excluding items, for the three months ended March 31, compared with analysts’ estimate of $1.29 per share, according to Refinitiv data (all figures US$).

— Reporting for Reuters by Arshreet Singh.

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Although prices of fertilizers such as phosphates and potash decreased toward the end of last year, it did not boost demand as farmers waited for pricing trends to stabilize. Higher prices had curbed demand in early second half of 2022.

Mosaic, the world’s largest producer of finished phosphate products, saw a 11 per cent fall in sales volume for the fertilizer due to unplanned operational outages.

The fertilizer maker had in December temporarily curtailed potash production at its Colonsay, Sask. mine, citing lower-than-expected demand.

Rivals Nutrien and CF Industries also missed quarterly profit estimates last week, with Nutrien also forecasting lower-than-expected full-year 2023 earnings.

The company forecast 2023 total capital expenditures in the range of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion (all figures US$).

Excluding items, the Tampa-based company reported earnings of $1.74 per share for the three months ended Dec. 31, compared with the average analyst estimate of $2.26 per share, according to Refinitiv data.

— Reporting for Reuters by Arshreet Singh.

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Mosaic curtailed potash production in December at its Colonsay, Sask. mine, but said then that it expected to restart in early 2023.

“It’s just a matter of starting to see the inventories coming down,” O’Rourke said in a Reuters interview. “The last thing we want to do is start it up, run it for a month-and-a-half and have to shut it down again.”

O’Rourke declined to be more specific on timing for restarting the mine, which was producing at an annual rate of 1.3 million tonnes.

“I think once we get through the first quarter, we can certainly be moving a lot more product,” he said. “But I’m being cautious about what to say until we see that movement.”

Spring is North America’s busiest time of year for potash applications.

Potash producers are banking on a return to stable prices in 2023 after disappointing demand late last year in the United States and Brazil. Potash is a key nutrient for corn and other crops, and elevated prices earlier in 2022 contributed to food inflation.

Prices had initially spiked after Russia invaded Ukraine and prompted Western countries to issue sanctions on Russia’s banking system that have slowed its potash exports.

O’Rourke said he sees strong demand this year once inventories decline.

U.S. farmers are expected to plant more corn, which consumes much fertilizer, with prices attractive.

“U.S. farmers are in really good shape,” Scotiabank analyst Ben Isaacson said. “There’s no reason we shouldn’t see at least partial recovery in potash demand, especially if we get some of the (extra) corn acres.”

A key variable is whether Russia and Belarus, another sanctioned potash producer, find ways to export more.

O’Rourke expects both will export about the same volume this year as last.

But RBC analyst Andrew Wong estimated that Belarussian and Russian potash operating rates would increase in 2023 by 10 percentage points to 50 and 80 per cent respectively of their pre-war levels.

— Rod Nickel is a Reuters correspondent covering the ag and resource sectors from Winnipeg.

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Florida-based Mosaic said Tuesday it has now “temporarily curtailed” production at its potash mine at Colonsay, about 65 km southeast of Saskatoon.

Colonsay had been operating at a pace of 1.3 million tonnes per year, Mosaic said, and it plans to expand that annual output to 1.8 million to two million tonnes by late 2023 following the restart of that mine’s second mill.

Meanwhile, though, “with demand returning slower than expected in the second half of 2022, Mosaic’s inventory levels are sufficient to meet near-term demand,” the company said in a release.

Underground work will continue toward an expected restart of both mills in early 2023, Mosaic said.

The Colonsay mine was brought back online in August 2021, after having been placed in indefinite “care and maintenance mode” in August 2019 due to what it described as “challenging market conditions” at that time.

It was brought back into service in 2021 as Mosaic also ramped up production at its K3 mine near Esterhazy, about 90 km southeast of Yorkton. The company at that time was otherwise facing reduced potash production with early closure of its nearby K1 and K2 mines due to “brine inflow conditions” at those sites.

This new curtailment at Colonsay, however, “reflects near-term dynamics and not long-term agricultural market fundamentals,” Mosaic CEO Joc O’Rourke said Tuesday in the company’s release.

“Crop prices remain strong and continue to support healthy grower economics… After a year of reduced applications, we believe farmers are incentivized to maximize yields, which should drive significant recovery in fertilizer demand in 2023.” — Glacier FarmMedia Network

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