Dale Risula said most of Saskatchewan is on the drier side, although not every area is struggling with a lack of moisture. He added that most parts of the province are set to start seeding in the coming weeks, if they haven’t already.

“We’ll probably need some moisture over the next few weeks once seeding is underway to get things going and to sustain the growth that comes from germination and emergence,” he said. “Right now, it’s just a little on the dry side.”

Risula said planting season in Saskatchewan typically begins in the southwest corner of the province with areas north and east soon to follow. He added that peas and chickpeas are usually some of the first crops in the ground due to their ability to withstand early spring frosts.

Statistics Canada (StatCan) expects lentil acres in Saskatchewan to increase by 5.5 per cent from last year at 3.376 million, while dry pea acres would gain 2.4 per cent at 1.634 million and those for chickpeas would rise 32.4 per cent at 360,300, the most since 2018. Risula believes lentil acres will go up, but seeded area for chickpeas will be steady to higher and those for dry peas will be lower.

However, precipitation is still needed to ensure typical yields this growing season.

“In areas where there may be enough moisture to see germination and emergence take place, it’s going to need more in order to sustain that growth. Other areas are going to be so dry, they may need some moisture to get them going,” he said.

—Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man. 

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On April 5, India’s government extended the duty-free status for all yellow pea imports until the end of June. After six years of tariffs and restrictions effectively cutting off the market, India eliminated the tariffs last December. Since then, the country has become a top destination for Canadian yellow peas, with 735,300 tonnes already sent in bulk this marketing year so far, according to the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC).

“Our sources tell us we will be able to ship between 800,000 and 900,000 tonnes by the time that window closes,” Cherewyk said. “It’s not quite where we were in terms of our pea volumes when we would’ve hit 1.3 million metric tonnes back in 2015-16, but it’s very significant.”

Canada exported 104,000 tonnes of lentils and 20,400 tonnes of chickpeas in February, according to Statistics Canada data. That compares with Australian exports of 128,600 tonnes of lentils and 53,800 tonnes of chickpeas during the same period, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. So far in 2023-24, Canadian exports total 1.07 million tonnes for lentils and 137,000 tonnes for chickpeas.

Cherewyk acknowledged that Canada’s share of the global lentil market has declined since 2019, but he said both Canada and Australia are roughly equal when it comes to export volumes.

“(2023) would be the first year in our history which we are seeing it this tight,” he said. “That’s a fairly significant shift.”

India and China have purchased plenty of Canadian yellow peas and lentils over the past year, despite increasing competition from Russian peas and Australian lentils as well as challenges with pulse production and yields at home, according to Cherewyk.

“A lot of product has moved this year relative to the inventory we’ve had,” he said. “That would mean that we’re at very low year-end (pea) inventories which could be at the range of 125,000 tonnes, which is very low. It will be interesting to see what kind of signal that sends to the farmer.”

While Statistics Canada forecasted more seeded pulse acres for 2024-25, dryness remains a concern for growers, which makes precipitation this spring very much needed.

Cherewyk said that it’s anyone’s guess how much production there will be for Canada’s pulse crops in the next marketing year and it will be difficult now to find the inventory to fill India’s yellow pea demand. Nevertheless, he added that 2023-24 has been a “relatively good” year for Canada’s pulse export program.

“Now we’ll anxiously await to see what gets seeded this year and how the year starts to progress,” Cherewyk said.

—Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man. 

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Lentils are expected to see the largest acreage increase, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Prospective Plantings report, released March 28, which forecast a 39.5 per cent increase in seeded area to the crop on the year at 762,000 acres. If realized, that would be the largest lentil acreage in the U.S. since 2018, and well above the five-year average of 586,000 acres.

“We still have to get it in the ground… but growers are certainly responding to fairly strong pricing for all pulses,” said Tim McGreevy, CEO American Pulse Association and the USA Dry Pea and Lentil Council in Idaho on the expected acreage increases in all pulse crops.

“Lentils in particular are fairly priced, and wheat is not,” he added, noting given average yields, lentils would have the highest returns of all the pulses.

Lentil stocks are on the tighter side worldwide, while India has dropped tariffs on U.S. lentils which has contributed to the strength in that market, according to McGreevy. However, seed availability could be a limiting factor on the increase. Weather conditions through the growing season will also be important to watch going forward, especially as many regions remain on the dry side.

While rotational issues often mean that increases in one pulse crop can come at the expense of other pulses, McGreevy pointed out that all the major pulses grown in the U.S. are expected to see an increase in seeded area this year.

Chickpea acres in the U.S. are forecast to increase by 15.2 per cent on the year, at 429,000 acres, according to the USDA. That would be the largest acreage base since 2019.

Edible bean planting intentions at 1.316 million acres would be up by 11.5 per cent from 2023, with about half of the intended acres slated for North Dakota.

Pea area in the U.S. is forecast to increase by about one per cent on the year, at 974,000 acres.

—Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg. 

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Canadian lentil area is forecast to be up by 4.4 per cent on the year, at 3.829 million acres, according to the estimates of principal field crops report released by Statistics Canada on March 11. After conducting a survey of producers in December and Janyar, StatCan forecast pea area in 2024 at 3.122 million acres which would be up by 2.4 per cent on the year.

Average pre-report expectations for both of those major pulse crops had called for even larger acreage increases, given the prospects for relatively favourable returns and lower input costs compared to other options.

Large green lentils are currently trading at some of their highest price levels of the past year, topping out above 80 cents per pound in some locations, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire data. New crop pricing is in the 55 to 57 cents per pound area. Red lentils have lagged their green counterparts to the upside, with spot bids and new crop pricing both around 30 cents per pound or slightly higher.

Spot bids for large calibre kabuli chickpeas can be found as high as 55 cents per pound, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire, with new crop bids around 45 cents per pound.

Chickpea area is forecast to hit its highest level since 2018 at 400,000 acres, which would be up by 26.8 per cent from the 315,500 acres seeded in 2023.

Area seeded to edible beans is forecast to increase by 12.8 per cent, hitting 359,000 acres. However, of that total, coloured beans are forecast to be up by 20.8 per cent at 297,100 acres, while white (navy) bean acres are projected to come in at their lowest level in 13 years at only 61,800 acres.

Nearby prices for white beans top out at 54 cents per pound, while black beans are trading over 70 cents per pound and pintos are trading in the 54 to 57 cents per pound area.

–– Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg. 

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Dennis Lange said projections indicate there will be 180,000 to 200,000 acres devoted to dry beans in Manitoba this spring. In 2023, 142,300 acres were grown according to Statistics Canada. He estimated the 2023-24 average yield for dry beans in Manitoba to be between 1,800 to 2,000 pounds per acre, down from 2,000 last year and 2,300 in 2022-23.

“The black and pinto beans are going to make up the majority of that increase, with navys, kidneys, (cranberries), pinks and some of those other types mixed into that,” Lange said. “But I think we’ll see more pinto and black acres.”

However, he added that dry conditions would not be the major obstacle preventing the expansion of acres, but rather a lack of seed supply.

“If growers are trying beans, they may be a little bit more limited in the availability on some of the more desirable types of pintos. They may have to start looking at other varieties. Growers will have to start looking pretty hard at finding seed, if they already haven’t done that,” Lange added.

He also said if there is a dry spring, growers will have to pay attention to seeding depth.

“Typically three-quarter to an inch-and-a-half is the desirable planting depth for beans. I like to see beans planted into moisture, but I don’t like to see them planted at two inches. Pushing through that depth can be too challenging for a bean,” Lange said.

Soybean acres are also expected to increase in Manitoba at between 1.8 to two million acres, compared to 1.595 million in 2023-24, according to Lange. He also expects soybeans and dry beans to fill a void left by a potential decline in canola acres due to the oilseed’s recent low prices.

“I think there’s more of a shuffling around of acres between different crops. With dry beans, growers have to be very selective on where they plant their dry beans. They have to make sure the soil type is conducive to good yields and making sure that it will be the right choice for that piece of ground,” Lange added.

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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Spot bids for large green lentils delivered to the elevator were trading anywhere from 60 to 76 cents per pound in mid-February 2024, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire data. That compares with bids topping out at 50 cents per pound at the same time a year ago. New crop pricing opportunities are also solid, with contracts in the 50 to 57 cents per pound area well ahead of the 40 cents peer pound new crop bids on offer in February 2023.

Meanwhile, the market on red lentils is relatively steady with year-ago levels. Current spot bids of 28 to 36 cents per pound have softened over the past month compare with pricing in the 30 to 32 cents per pound range in February 2023. For new crop red lentils, available contract opportunities are topping out at 31.5 cents per pound, only 1.5 cents above levels at the same time the previous year.

A large red lentil export program from Australia has reportedly weighed on that sector, according to a report from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC).

The government agency expects total seeded lentil area in the country to be up by 8.0 per cent in 2024 compared to the previous year, at 1.60 million hectares, “due to higher projected returns compared to other crops.” With a return to average yields, lentil production in the country is forecast to rise by 32 per cent at 2.20 million tonnes.

Total Canadian lentil exports are forecast to increase to 1.80 million tonnes in 2024/25, from an

expected 1.60 million in the current marketing year. However, prices are forecast to come under pressure going forward, with the stocks-to-use ratio rising from six per cent in 2023/24 to the much more comfortable level of 15 per cent, according to AAFC.

Total lentil ending stocks for 2024/25 are forecast to rise to 310,000 tonnes, from an anticipated 100,000 tonnes for 2023/24.

––Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg. 

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A lot depends on the weather and markets, but representatives of the soy and pulse industry believe that nitrogen-fixing crops could become 25 percent of total acres in Manitoba.

“We think there should be a legume once every four years (in the rotation),” Daryl Domitruk, executive director of Manitoba Pulse & Soybean Growers, said at the association’s annual meeting held Feb. 14 during the CropConnect conference in Winnipeg.

“In Manitoba, if we have 10 million acres of annual cropland, that’s 2.5 million acres…. We think that it can be anywhere from 1.75 million acres of soybeans and the remainder made up by dry beans and peas.”

Manitoba is the largest dry bean producer in Canada, mostly pinto, navy and black beans.

The 25 percent share for soybeans and pulse crops hasn’t happened yet because soy acres have been highly volatile over the last seven years.

Acres have ranged from 2.3 million acres in 2017 to 900,000 in 2022 and everywhere in between.

Dry growing seasons, novice growers planting varieties that were ill-suited for their farm and disappointing yields pushed acres down from the high point of 2017.

However, soy proponents say the roller coaster may soon calm down.

“If we get out of these dry (growing) seasons we’ve been having, our acres will go up,” said association chair Melvin Rattai, who farms near Beausejour.

Dennis Lange, a soy and pulse specialist with Manitoba Agriculture, is also predicting that soybean acres will stabilize in the coming years. He expects it to settle out at 1.5 to 1.7 million, with an acreage bump in years with strong prices.

Following the annual meeting in Winnipeg, Rattai said there’s a dedicated group of soy growers that represent about one million acres.

The remaining production depends on weather and markets, which are difficult for farmers to control.

What they can control is investment in research, such as development of varieties with improved tolerance of drought and dry conditions.

“We’re starting to see that already…. The breeders are making some progress,” Rattai said.

“They (the newest varieties) can produce more beans with less water.… They are starting to show up.”

Soybean yields in Manitoba were all over the map from 2017-22. The average yield was around 27 bushels in 2019 and then hit a record of 45 bu. in 2022.

That sort of variability creates too much risk so growers will choose canola or wheat instead of soy.

“We’ve invested a lot in drought-tolerant genetics … to stabilize the yield of soybeans,” Domitruk said.

“With science and diligent research, we can get to a stable yield…. I think a warming climate is going to help us. Soybeans, they thrive in that (heat).”

More research is needed to reduce yield volatility, but another opportunity could lift up the province’s soy industry.

A number of growers are experimenting with identity preserved (IP), or food grade, soybeans, which are used to make tofu and other products.

“I just finished a trade mission to Japan.… That is the high-end market that we need to access,” Rattai said.

“They’re using our beans already. They just want more of the IP beans.”

IP soybeans are not genetically modified and don’t come with herbicide tolerance, making them more challenging to grow.

Last year, Rattai planted IP soybeans for the first time on his farm and the crop was a success.

In comparison to Roundup Ready beans, yields were only five percent lower.

“We had a 55 bushel crop… With the new varieties coming out, they’re going to compete very well with the GMO (beans).”

One unknown for Manitoba soybean acres will be demand from renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) refineries in North America.

Azure Sustainable Fuels, a Calgary company, is looking at building a SAF plant in Portage la Prairie, Man., which could produce 20,000 barrels of aviation fuel per day.

The project is still at the design and engineering stage, but if Azure can raise the funds to build the $1.9 billion plant, demand for soybean and canola oil could skyrocket in Manitoba.

—Robert Arnason writes for the Western Producer from Manitoba.

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AAFC included its first estimates for the 2024/25 marketing year in its January supply/demand report, released Jan. 22.

All wheat area was forecast to dip by 1.9 per cent, at 26.50 million acres, as a 2.9 per cent decline in non-durum wheat should more than counter an expected 1.4 per cent increase in durum to 6.12 million acres.

Barley area was forecast to slip by 4.8 per cent on the year, at 6.97 million acres, while area seeded to oats was projected to see the largest change on the year – rising by 27.1 per cent to 3.21 million acres.

AAFC called for a 1.5 per cent decline in canola area, at 21.75 million acres, with flaxseed dropping by 19.0 per cent to 494,000 acres. Meanwhile, soybeans should hold steady at 5.64 million acres.

The major pulse crops were all expected to see increased area this spring, with both peas and lentils forecast to rise by 5.4 per cent at 3.21 million and 3.95 million acres respectively. Chickpea area was forecast at 371,000 acres, which would be up by 7.7 per cent on the year.

Statistics Canada releases its first official seeded area estimates for the upcoming growing season on March 11.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg. 

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Only lentils saw an increase, rising slightly by 0.4 per cent from 2021-22 to now 4.32 million. Meanwhile, dry peas fell 11.8 per cent at 3.37 million aces, with edible beans down 32.1 per cent at 297,000.

Chickpeas pulled back 4.2 per cent at 177,800 acres and fababeans dropped 45.7 per cent at 72,300.

However, Mike Jubinville of MarketsFarm Pro stressed a notable element in the StatCan surveys: their timing meant the numbers provided by farmers are what they hoped to plant in 2022 and may not be what they actually seeded.

“We will not know further acreage-loss changes until December, but I believe that total number is roughly 1.5 million acres,” Jubinville said.

He spread that 1.5 million mostly between spring wheat and canola each, accounting for 500,000 acres, and expects dry peas to lose another 100,000. Pulses such as lentils and chickpeas were seeded in a timely fashion, so he’s not expecting any notable changes for those.

Other pulses, such as fababeans and edible beans, may have lost some planted acres due to the soggy soil conditions throughout the Red River Valley in Manitoba, he said.

That said, he pointed to another factor on which the markets will focus.

“The market sentiment will be all about yields, getting bigger or smaller than previous ideas,” he said.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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“With the trade issues we’re facing right now, we have quite a surplus,” said Shannon Berndt, executive director of the Northern Pulse Growers Association in Bismarck, N.D., pointing to Indian pulse tariffs and to the ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China.

“Across the U.S. we will definitely see a drop in acres just due to the fact that we have such a large surplus we’re trying to work through,” she said.

“We had two years of back-to-back historic acres planted, particularly in Montana.”

With those large crops now facing export challenges, she expected pulse acres would be down in 2019 and acreage losses would likely be most noticeable in Montana, where there were more new growers.

“We have a solid base of producers here (in North Dakota) that are growing (pulses) for the agronomic and rotational value probably far more than for the price,” said Berndt.

“When the prices are really good you tend to see a lot of new growers step in, and those will be the folks who will be very hesitant to plant.”

Chickpea area saw the largest growth in the U.S. in recent years, and likely has the most room to decline in 2019. Peas, meanwhile, should benefit from increasing domestic demand.

“The silver lining to this dark cloud is that things have started picking up on the domestic side,” said Berndt, pointing to the increased demand from pea fractionation plants.

Some chickpea sales were still being made to India, despite the tariffs, while increased demand from the pet food sector was another supportive influence.

However, there are concerns that “if acres were to drop too much, that would affect any headway that’s been made.”

The ongoing partial government shutdown in the U.S. was another unknown overhanging the country’s pulse sector, as the industry had been awaiting the release of the official harvest prices for revenue insurance purposes.

“Someone at the (U.S. Department of Agriculture) worked on the data” and the numbers were released Monday night, Berndt said.

Harvest price data is used to set crop insurance payments and will help offset poor prices to some extent for those growers who took out insurance. Berndt said harvest prices will also help in making acreage decisions for this year.

“There’s certainly been some challenges thrown at us, but if we can slog through the next year we’ll see some real changes on the other side.”

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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