“It didn’t do much at all for the market reaction. Some slight adjustments, but overall a nothing burger,” said John Weyer, vice-president of Walsh Commercial Hedging Services in Chicago, Ill.

“To steal a quote from my office manager, they released the report and didn’t tell anyone,” Weyer quipped.

Few changes in U.S. crops

Among the trio of main commodities, there were no changes to U.S. production of soybeans, corn and wheat for the 2025-26 marketing year.

• For daily market updates, visit The Western Producer Markets Desk

As for 2025-26 U.S. exports and ending stocks, the only differences compared to the USDA’s March report were that soybean exports were trimmed to 1.54 billion bushels from 1.58 billion, and the wheat carryover was bumped up to 938 million bushels from 931 million.

Global adjustments

However, Walsh said the change in global ending stocks for wheat did see a five to six cent drop in the North American futures. The carryout rose to 283.12 million tonnes in the April report from 276.96 million last month.

As well, world wheat production for 2025-26 was upped to 844.15 million tonnes, based on increased output for Argentina, the European Union and Russia.

For corn, the USDA kept Argentina and Brazil at 52 million and 132 million tonnes, respectively. Also with soybeans, with Argentina at 48 million tonnes and Brazil held at 180 million.

Crude oil

With such a mundane report, Walsh said crude oil will continue to guide the commodity futures over the next 30 days.

“That’s the driver of the bus right now,” Walsh said.

While recent talk of a ceasefire between U.S. and Israel with Iran generated sharp declines in crude oil and the agricultural commodities, fears of the war escalating pushed prices higher on April 9.

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“Given the fact we didn’t miss expectations by much in any category, I would say we continue to trade as we have been trading,” Ettner said.

The USDA issued its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates which included a 17 million-bushel increase in total U.S. wheat production for 2024/25 at 1.875 billion. Ending stocks were trimmed by eight million bushels from the May report at 758 million due to a slight increase in exports.

However, Ettner stated there’s a very good chance of wheat production increasing as the U.S. winter wheat harvest advances, which would be bearish on prices.

“I think people looking their windows at their wheat saying this crop is going to be better than what the USDA is reporting,” he commented while pointing to the strong likelihood of improved yields in Kansas.

There were no changes from last month for U.S. corn as output remained at 14.860 billion bushels with the carryover holding at 2.102 billion. The USDA also held soybean production at 4.450 billion bushels and ending stocks at 4.360 billion.

“No news is not sideways. No news is slightly bearish,” Ettner said.

As for South American soybean and corn numbers, the broker said very few people in the North American markets are paying attention because its 2024/25 growing season is well underway.

“That’s like watching the Super Bowl and someone saying, ‘can we turn on the soccer game during the commercial?’ We’re not going to do that,” he joked.

The USDA held its 2023/24 production numbers for corn with Brazil at 122 million tonnes and Argentina at 53 million. It’s almost the same story for soybeans with Brazil trimmed back one million tonnes at 153 million while Argentina remained at 50 million.

Ettner suggested it’s best to rely on reports coming out of Brazil and Argentina while the USDA eventually adjusts its numbers.

When it comes to Russia, Ettner advised that it’s best to ignore any current wheat production numbers at this time. While reports say output is to be down 15 to 30 per cent due to severe frosts a few weeks ago, much of that wheat is said to have been replanted.

The USDA cut five million tonnes out of its estimate for 2024/25 Russian wheat, now at 83 million.

Ettner said it’s best to be patient until there’s more concrete data on Russia.

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The projected ending stocks for Brazilian corn were raised 200,000 tonnes from the February estimate at 6.17 million, which could bring more pressure to already beleaguered U.S. corn futures. While the carryout into 2023-24 was adjusted higher by 1.2 million tonnes at 11.47 million, domestic feed use increased by one million tonnes at 64.5 million. Production remained unchanged at 124 million tonnes.

In Argentina, ending stocks remained at 1.03 million with production and exports each going up one million tonnes at 56 million and 42 million, respectively.

Brazilian soybeans saw a marked reduction in projected ending stocks for 2023-24, losing 3.25 million tonnes at 33.05 million. Exports increased by three million tonnes at 103 million, while production was down one million tonnes at 155 million and domestic crush was cut by 750,000 tonnes at 53 million. In Argentina, production remained the same at 50 million tonnes with ending stocks unchanged at 25.96 million.

U.S. wheat saw its 2023-24 estimated carryout rise by 15 million bushels at 673 million, due to an equivalent reduction in exports to 710 million. Production was unchanged at 1.812 billion bushels.

U.S. corn saw no changes from its February estimates, with production remaining at 15.342 billion bushels and ending stocks at 2.172 billion. U.S. soybean production and ending stocks were also unchanged at 4.165 billion and 315 million bushels, respectively.

Projected global ending stocks for 2023-24 corn were cut by 2.43 million tonnes from the February estimate at 319.63 million. Beginning stocks were raised 1.37 million tonnes at 301.62 million, but production fell by 2.33 million at 1.230 billion and domestic use increased by 1.48 million at 1.212 billion.

World ending stocks for soybeans dropped by 1.76 million tonnes at 114.27 million. Beginning stocks were also down by 1.42 million tonnes at 102.15 million and production was cut by 1.36 million tonnes at 396.85 million.

Projected world wheat ending stocks declined by 610,000 tonnes at 258.83 million. Beginning stocks were down by 110,000 tonnes at 271.1 million, but production is set to rise by 960,000 tonnes at 786.7 million.

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man. 

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AAFC published its latest Outlook for Principal Field Crops on Tuesday.

Of Canada’s major crops, the department left the 2023-24 ending stocks for canola at one million tonnes and all wheat at 3.6 million, while all other reported crops were left unchanged.

Exports for 2023-24 were much the same, with canola standing pat at 7.7 million tonnes and all wheat at 21.3 million. There were small tweaks to barley, easing back to 2.73 million tonnes and oats dipped to 2.4 million.

As for this year’s domestic usage, AAFC included several slight alterations but left canola at 10.274 million tonnes and all wheat at 8.718 million. The revisions came with barley raised to 5.471 million tonnes, along with oats at 985,000, soybeans at 2.424 million, dry peas at 635,000 and lentils at 284,000. Meanwhile, corn was trimmed to 15.509 million tonnes.

The November report is AAFC’s last before Statistics Canada issues its survey-based production report, scheduled for Dec. 4.

Tables: November estimates for Canadian major crops’ supply and demand, in millions of metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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USDA defied trade expectations when it came to 2023-24 ending stocks of U.S. corn, soybeans, and all wheat, with those being higher. As well, the department came in above what the markets foresaw for this year’s corn and soybean yields. However, the new USDA numbers did not exceed the range of market expectations.

With the average trade guess on 2023-24 U.S. corn yields at 173.2 bushels per acre, the USDA’s November number came in at 174.9 bu./ac., versus October’s 173. That altered production from 15.06 billion bushels last month to now 15.23 billion, well above the average trade guess of 15.09 billion. That raised ending stocks from 2.11 billion bushels in October to 2.16 billion this month. The trade range was from two billion to 2.5 billion bushels.

For 2023-24 U.S. soybeans, USDA bumped up the yields from 49.6 bu./ac. in October to 49.9, when the average trade guess expected 49.5, based on a range of 49 to 50.4. Production increased from October’s 4.1 billion bushels to 4.13 billion, due to better than anticipated harvests in Wisconsin, Tennessee, North Dakota, South Dakota and Ohio. The average market projection was 4.11 billion bushels, from a range of 4.04 billion to 4.17 billion.

While the trade believed the U.S. soybean carryover would be 221 million bushels, one million more than in October’s report, USDA boosted its figure to 245 million. The range had been 190 million to 261 million.

All U.S. wheat was largely expected to standpat, but USDA increased ending stocks by 14 million bushels to now 684 million. Trade guesses ranged from 650 million to 696 million bushels. The department noted that while exports held at 700 million bushels, domestic use slipped four million at 1.86 million.

Globally, one of the most notable changes in the November USDA report came in the 2023-24 corn carryover, which climbed from 312.4 million tonnes in October to now 314.99 million. Based on a range of 309 million to 314 million tonnes, the average trade guess was 312 million.

Wheat also came in a little bit above the trade guesses, with USDA nudging up its 2023-24 carryout from 258.1 million tonnes last month to November’s 258.69 million. The average trade guess was 257.9 million tonnes, from a range of 256 million to 259.4 million.

Among the changes USDA made for wheat by country were production decreases for India at 110.55 million tonnes (113.5 million in October); Argentina, 15 million tonnes (16.5 million); and Kazakhstan, 12 million (13 million). Russia had the most notable increase from 85 million tonnes in October to now 90 million, while Australia remained at 24.5 million despite its dry conditions.

Ending stocks for world soybeans did not remain unchanged at 115.6 million tonnes. Rather, USDA lowered 2023-24 stocks to 114.5 million tonnes; the trade placed them at 114.0 to 117.8 million.

Another surprise from USDA was no changes for 2023-24 corn and soybean production in Argentina and Brazil. That’s despite drought in Argentina, along with Brazil facing very dry conditions in its north and excessively wet conditions in its south. To USDA, Argentina was still on track to combine 55 million tonnes of corn and Brazil is to bring in 129 million. The soybean harvest in Argentina remained at 48 million tonnes, while Brazil is to reap 163 million.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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Corn prices were 18 cents per bushel lower on the day, while soybeans lost 27-33 cents (all figures US$). Chicago soft wheat shed 24-28 cents, while Kansas City hard red and Minneapolis spring wheat varieties dropped 11-14 cents.

USDA estimated domestic corn production at 15.32 billion bushels, 55 million more than the June estimate and 1.59 billion more than in 2022-23. However, the projected average yield was cut by four bushels per acre from the June estimate, to 177.5 bu./ac. Nevertheless, the figure is higher than the average of 173.3 in 2022-23. Ending stocks for U.S. corn only went up five million bushels from the June estimate, to 2.262 billion, while the 2022-23 carryover was 1.402 billion.

“Analysts were looking for a yield lowering of 4.9 (bu./ac.)…Traders were looking for a six or seven (bu./ac.) decline today,” Ryan Ettner of Allendale Inc. at McHenry, Ill. said.

“A big rain system came right across the Midwest today. Along with recent rain systems, it makes it even harder to justify eventually reaching a 20-bushel cut to come off of US$5 (per bushel) corn.”

Projected U.S. soybean production took a big cut from the June estimate, losing 210 million bushels, to 4.3 billion, at the higher end of pre-report expectations. The figure is still higher than the 4.276 billion produced in 2022-23. However, the average yield estimate was unchanged from the previous month, remaining at 52 bu./ac., 2.5 higher than in 2022-23. Projected ending stocks also took a dive, dropping 50 million bushels, to 300 million, while also higher than the 255 million last year. Pre-report estimates had new-crop ending stocks at 199 million bushels.

Exports were lowered by 125 million bushels from the June estimate, to 1.85 billion, which was also 130 million less than the 2022-23 total. According to Ettner, this surprised the trade.

“Analysts were looking for no reduction in exports despite the fact exports continue to be poor and have been poor for three months,” he said. “I think it’s completely justified.”

U.S. wheat production was projected to increase to 1.739 billion bushels, slightly above trade expectations. The projection is 74 million higher than the June estimate and 89 million more than the 2022-23 production total. The estimated average yield increased by 1.2 bu./ac. from the June report to 46.1, slightly below the 46.5 average from 2022-23. Ending stocks gained 30 million bushels from the June estimate to 592 million, 12 million higher than last year.

Hard red spring wheat production in the U.S. was estimated at 441 million bushels, five million less than in 2022-23. Ending stocks were projected at 155 million, three million less than last year’s total.

Ettner also said he was surprised the trade did not expect a reduction in exports. The July estimate for exports was left unchanged from June at 725 million bushels, 34 million lower than in 2022-23.

USDA projected world ending stocks for corn to total 314.12 million tonnes for 2023-24, 140,000 tonnes more than the June estimate and 17.82 million more than last year’s ending stocks. The world carryover for soybeans was pegged at 120.98 million, a 2.36 million cut from the June estimate, but 18.08 million more than the 2022-23 total. The world wheat carryout was projected at 266.53 million for 2023-24, a 4.18 million cut from the June estimate and 2.78 million less than last year’s figure.

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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“You can’t close your eyes on these acreage numbers,” said Scott Capinegro of Barrington Commodity Brokers in Illinois.

Total corn plantings in the country were estimated at 94.1 million acres by the government department — a million acres above the top end of trade estimates and well above the 88.6 million acres seeded in 2022. The corn plantings would mark the third-highest acreage base to the crop since 1944.

The increase in corn area came at the expense of soybeans, which saw area fall to 83.5 million acres from 87.5 million a year ago. Average trade guesses had been for similar planted area on the year.

The acreage numbers were bullish for soybeans and bearish for corn, with adjustments to the supply/demand balance sheets for the two crops expected going forward.

While soybean futures have climbed higher in the wake of the report, a wrinkle in the soy market is the soft export demand, according to Capinegro. He noted cheaper Brazilian supplies are displacing U.S. soybeans in the world market, which may limit upside in the futures.

“The rallies in beans are also just telling the world to plant more,” he said.

With the smaller planted area, conditions through the growing season will be especially important for soybeans, with even small adjustments in yield leaving the country with dangerously tight stocks.

Corn may have more of a cushion on acres, but the influence of weather conditions on yields through the growing season will also be important to watch.

Capinegro noted old-crop U.S. corn exports are running well behind expectations, which will be added to ending stocks.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.

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Only corn saw any adjustments in the numbers from May, with a 200,000-tonne increase in 2022-23 exports, now at 2.05 million tonnes, resulting in 100,000-tonne reductions in current- and new-crop corn ending stocks at 2.4 million and 2.2 million tonnes respectively.

Wheat ending stocks were left unchanged at 3.98 million tonnes for 2022-23 and 5.8 million tonnes in 2023-24. Canola ending stocks were also left unchanged at the relatively tight levels of 650,000 tonnes for the current crop year and 600,000 tonnes in 2023-24.

Predicted average prices did see some adjustment on many crops, with 2022-23 canola prices raised to $840 per tonne, from $805 per tonne in May, while new-crop expectations were lowered by $20, to $680 per tonne.

Average wheat bids, excluding durum, were pegged at $400 per tonne in 2022-23, from $410 in May. New-crop wheat prices were revised down by $5 from May, now at $370 per tonne.

In its commentary, AAFC cautioned that “volatility in the world’s grain markets remains above normal on generally unseasonably warm Northern Hemisphere temperatures and mixed moisture conditions along with the disruptions caused by Russia’s war against Ukraine.”

Tables: June estimates for Canadian major crops’ supply and demand, in millions of metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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For the 2023-24 crop year, USDA pegged total domestic wheat production at 1.665 billion bushels, slightly higher than the 1.659 billion in the department’s May estimates. USDA said higher hard red winter wheat production will exceed declines in soft red winter and white winter wheats.

Domestic wheat use and exports were held at 1.112 billion and 725 million bushels respectively. But ending stocks nudged up six million bushels to 562 million, somewhat below the average trade estimate of 569 million and well under the 2022/23 carryover of 598 million bushels.

The June report held 2023-24 U.S. corn production at May’s 15.265 billion bushels, domestic use at 12.385 billion, and exports at 2.1 billion. Ending stocks were raised to 2.257 billion bushels from last month’s 2.222 billion. That was almost a bullseye for the average trade guess, while significantly higher than the 2022-23 carryover of 1.452 billion bushels.

For soybeans, the June WASDE maintained production from May at 4.51 billion bushels with total use also remaining at 4.411 billion and exports at 1.975 billion. As for ending stocks, USDA matched market expectations of 350 million bushels, which is up from May’s 335 million. As with corn, soybean ending stocks are a fair bit higher than in 2022-23’s 230 million bushels.

In estimating South American soybean production for 2022-23, USDA cut two million tonnes from its call for Argentina at 25 million and Brazil was nudged up one million tonnes to 156 million. However, USDA was optimistic when it came to 2023-24 output, placing Argentina at 48 million tonnes and with Brazil accounting for nearly 40 per cent of global production at a whopping 163 million tonnes.

As for 2022-23 South American corn production, USDA cut Argentina by two million tonnes at 35 million and raised Brazil by two million at 132 million. The department’s outlook for 2023-24 put Argentina at 54 million tonnes and Brazil at 129 million.

Among the world’s wheat producers in 2023-24, USDA forecast the European Union to harvest 140.5 million tonnes, an increase of 1.5 million from the May estimate. Russia is to reap 85 million tonnes, up from last month’s 81.5 million, and Ukraine is raised one million tonnes at 17.5 million. The department kept Canada at 37 million tonnes and Australia at 29 million.

In USDA’s monthly oilseed report, it pegged global canola/rapeseed production for 2023-24 at 87.2 million tonnes, of which 20.3 million is to be grown in Canada. The EU is projected to lead the world at 21 million tonnes.

Prior to the July WASDE, the department will release its survey-based acreage report on June 30.

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Factoring in Statistics Canada’s latest acreage estimates and its data for stocks as of March 31 — figures both released in the past month — AAFC now forecasts canola ending stocks of 650,000 tonnes for 2022-23 and only 650,000 for 2023-24. That compares with the April forecasts of one million and 1.05 million tonnes respectively.

Total canola production in 2023-24 was forecast at 18.4 million tonnes, which would be down slightly from the 18.5 million tonnes forecast in April but still up from 18.17 million tonnes grown in 2022-23.

For wheat, ending stocks for 2022-23 were lowered to 3.98 million tonnes, from an estimated 4.3 million in April. However, new-crop wheat ending stocks were bumped up by 100,000 tonnes on the month, to 5.8 million tonnes.

Total wheat production in the country is forecast to hit 35.75 million tonnes in 2023-24, which would be well above the April estimate of 34.33 million and the 2022-23 production of 33.82 million tonnes.

Tables: May estimates for major Canadian crops’ supply and demand, in millions of metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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