The India Meteorological Department released its first forecast for the 2026 monsoon season on April 13, predicting rainfall will reach 92 per cent of the long-term average. That marked the lowest early forecast of the past three decades.

WHY IT MATTERS: Indian demand for Canadian pulses varies from year-to-year depending on their own production and trade policies.

The southwest monsoon typically runs from June through September as it advances northward and accounts for about 70 per cent of India’s seasonal rainfall. The India Meteorological Department defines normal rainfall as between ​96 and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 87 centimetres for the four-month season.

India’s rabi season crops, which include lentils and chickpeas, are typically seeded in November and December. They rely on the moisture reserves from the monsoon rains for germination and growth.

Indian forecasters predict El Niño conditions to develop during the hurricane season, which has led to below average monsoon rains and drought for the country in past El Nino years.

While below-normal seasonal rainfall is expected for most of the country, some localized areas may still see normal to above-normal precipitation, the India Meteorological Department said.

The department will release its next forecast at the end of May, with several factors that may alter the monsoon outlook. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean, with positive conditions likely to develop towards the end of the monsoon season — which is favourable for rainfall.

Northern Hemisphere and Eurasian snow cover during January to March 2026 were slightly below normal, which was also said to be favourable for southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall 2026.

The post Pulse weekly: Indian forecasters predict below-normal monsoon appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

“Artificial intelligence supports earlier detection of weather-related events, as well as enhance the reliability and accuracy of forecasts,” said Julie Dabrusin, minister of environment, climate change and nature, in a news release.

ECCC will create a new hybrid weather forecasting model, combining the predictive abilities of AI and traditional physics-based meteorology and the department’s knowledge of local factors for wind, temperature and precipitation.

• More weather coverage: El Niño risk building, U.S. forecaster says

The new forecasting model would enhance public safety, improve emergency readiness and give more Canadians time to act when severe weather is expected, the department said.

The hybrid model is also expected to improve the accuracy of short and long-term forecasts. It claims the six-day forecast would be as accurate as the traditional model’s current five-day forecast and would predict major weather systems from eight to 24 hours earlier.

ECCC said it has tested the hybrid model over the past year to compare its performance with the traditional models. They found that the hybrid model predicted extreme weather more effectively, while the traditional model was better at small-scale details.

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El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions emerged last month. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday that El Niño has a 61 per cent chance of developing between May and June 2026 and is expected to persist through at least the end of 2026.

“El Niño is likely because of increasing subsurface temperature anomalies and recent westerly wind anomalies over the western Pacific Ocean,” the CPC added.

WHY IT MATTERS: On the Prairies, a strong El Niño typically translates into reduced impacts from Arctic air, meaning above-average temperatures — particularly in deep winter. El Niño winters often see increased cloud cover and more frequent light precipitation.

El Niño is a warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures, in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

El Niño results in unusually warmer water temperatures, increasing the chance of floods and drought, which can impact crops. When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields.

Donald Keeney, agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather, said a strong El Niño is possible, resulting in cooler and wetter conditions in the U.S. Midwest this summer, which would be favorable for corn and soybeans.

“It would also equate to wetter conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina, which would be favorable for corn and soybeans there next season,” Keeney said.

“Indonesia should be drier than usual as El Niño develops. Also, a cooling of water temperatures off western Indonesia, in the southeast tropical Indian Ocean, will contribute to drier conditions this spring and summer,” said Jason Nicholls, lead international forecaster at AccuWeather.

India is expected to receive below-normal monsoon rainfall in 2026, private weather forecaster Skymet said on Tuesday, citing El Niño-driven declines in precipitation in the latter half of the June–September rainy season.

Sucafina’s weather strategist Greg Oddo said that a potential impact from unfavorable weather to tropical crops such as coffee and cocoa is likely in first quarter of 2027.

— Reporting by Sarah Qureshi

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Highlights

• Another Alberta clipper could form over central Alberta mid next week and head east.
• Milder temperatures are expected to arrive in Saskatchewan and Manitoba late this week.

Overview

Spring is trying to arrive, but we just can’t seem to completely shake winter’s grip.

The unfortunate news is that this forecast period looks very similar to the last one. The main difference this week is the steadily strengthening sun and, as a result, gradually warming temperatures.

We begin this forecast period with a strong Alberta clipper storm system exiting southern Manitoba, as was forecasted in last weeks forecast! This is the same system that brought heavy snow to parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan on Tuesday, and to central and portions of southern Manitoba late Tuesday into Wednesday.

In its wake, a weak push of Arctic air will settle in for Thursday and Friday before warmer air begins advancing northward ahead of a large area of low pressure expected to develop over the northwestern United States.

• More weather coverage: El Niño could result in a warm winter

This low is forecast to track northeast toward Lake Superior over the weekend. As it does, it should pull a significant amount of warm air northward. Expect daytime highs across the southern Prairies to climb toward the 10°C mark, with some locations potentially reaching 15°C. Moisture will also be drawn northward, although at this point it appears that only scattered showers are likely over southern and central Alberta and Saskatchewan through the weekend. As the low passes south of Manitoba, slightly cooler air will begin to wrap into the system, which could allow showers to transition to snow, particularly over central Manitoba. As always, this system will need to be monitored closely.

Another shot of Arctic air is expected early next week as high pressure drops southward behind the departing low. This will bring temperatures back below average, with daytime highs only reaching the low single digits. Attention then turns to the potential for another Alberta clipper developing around the middle of next week, but as is often the case, that remains a long way off and subject to change.

Alberta

This forecast period begins with a lingering trough of low pressure over central and northern regions, associated with Tuesday’s Alberta clipper, gradually weakening and shifting eastward. This will allow for clearing skies and cooler temperatures, with daytime highs across the province generally in the 3 to 5°C range.

Temperatures will begin to moderate on Friday as warm air pushes northward ahead of a developing low over the northwestern United States. Daytime highs are expected to reach around 10°C on Friday and could climb to near 15°C on Saturday, particularly across southern regions.

As this U.S. low advances eastward over the weekend, expect increasing cloud cover and the chance of showers developing Saturday and continuing into Sunday.

Cooler air will begin to filter in behind the system as it drifts eastward. There is a possibility that precipitation could briefly change to snow late Sunday or overnight and into Monday before exiting the province.

Early next week will start on the cooler side as Arctic high pressure settles in. Expect daytime highs in the 1 to 4°C range, with overnight lows dropping to around -8°C. Milder air is expected to return to southern and central regions by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Weather models suggest another Alberta clipper may develop across central areas late Wednesday into Thursday. As usual, and especially this year, this system will require close monitoring.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Both regions continue to deal with the lingering effects of the Alberta clipper that moved through central Saskatchewan on Tuesday and Manitoba on Wednesday. Colder Arctic air will push in on Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure builds southward behind the system. Expect daytime highs ranging from -2 to 5°C and overnight lows near -8°C. There’s a possibility of of colder temperatures in areas that received significant snowfall, especially if skies clear out.

Temperatures will begin to rebound on Friday as milder air advances northward ahead of the developing low over the northwestern United States. This warming trend should bring daytime highs into the low teens across southern Saskatchewan by Saturday and into Manitoba by Sunday.

• More weather coverage: Canada’s shifting snowpack reveals water-loss location matters for agriculture

Over the weekend, expect increasing cloudiness along with the chance of showers by Sunday as the U.S. low tracks toward Lake Superior.

As cooler air is drawn into the system, precipitation may transition to light snow or flurries by Monday. There is some potential for more significant snowfall over central Manitoba on Monday, while southern regions may see mainly rain. This system will need to be watched closely.

Colder air will push back into the region behind this low on Tuesday and Wednesday with daytime highs only forecasted to be in the 2 to 5 C range. I hate to say it, but the weather models are showing another Alberta clipper developing on Wednesday, but that is a long way off and plenty can change between now and then.

The post Prairie forecast: Another Alberta clipper? appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

Highlights

• Current indications are that a cooler-than-average weather pattern will persist for the next seven to 10 days.
• With no major systems expected to hit Alberta over the next week, much of the province will see relatively quiet weather. Sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected to dominate most days.
• From Wednesday through Friday, Manitoba and Saskatchewan can expect partly or mostly cloudy skies and the chance of occasional flurries.

Overview

The weather models had a fairly good handle on the overall pattern over the past week, but as is usual at this time of year, the finer details were a little off. What is perhaps more notable is how consistent the broader pattern has been, which has allowed models to perform reasonably well even further out. Over the past three to four weeks, there has been very little change in the large-scale setup, and that consistency looks to continue.

While temperatures will gradually trend upward as we move into spring, the overall cooler-than-average pattern remains firmly in place. Current indications suggest this will persist for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

• More weather coverage: Farmers’ Almanac rescued from closure

We begin this forecast period with high pressure firmly entrenched across the northern Prairies. Meanwhile, the main storm track is taking shape across the northern United States. This places much of the agricultural Prairies in a sort of in-between zone — caught between the dominant influence of northern high pressure and more active weather to the south.

The good news, depending on your perspective, is that most heavier precipitation events are expected to remain south of the border through this forecast period. The downside? Any significant early spring warmth will also stay to our south.

For areas still holding onto snowpack, this means the slow, gradual melt will continue rather than a rapid spring runoff.

Alberta

With no major systems expected to hit the province over the next week, much of Alberta will see relatively quiet weather. Sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected to dominate most days.

That said, the models are tracking an area of low pressure that’s pushing in from the Pacific and cutting through Montana on Thursday into Friday. This system will likely bring increased cloud cover along with scattered showers or flurries to southern Alberta late Thursday. Central and northern regions can expect partly cloudy skies with the occasional flurry.

Temperatures will remain on the cool side through this period, with daytime highs generally in the 0 to 3°C range and overnight lows dipping to around -6°C.

Conditions should improve heading into the weekend as the Montana low shifts eastward and weak upper-level ridging builds into the province. This should allow for more sunshine and warmth with daytime highs rising into the 7 to 11°C range across most regions.

Looking ahead to early next week, the models suggest an area of low pressure developing over northern Alberta. This could bring increased cloud cover and periods of snow to northern parts of the province.

Farther south, a southerly flow ahead of the system may allow milder air to push in, potentially lifting daytime highs into the mid-teens. As has been the case with this pattern, confidence in this portion of the forecast remains low and will need to be monitored.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

We begin the forecast period with a departing frontal system that brought anywhere from a light dusting of snow to upwards of 10 to 15 cm in some areas. In its wake, weak high pressure will attempt to build into the region, but conditions are expected to remain somewhat unsettled.

From Wednesday through Friday, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and the chance of occasional flurries. Daytime highs will largely depend on cloud cover — generally hovering around the freezing mark under thicker clouds but climbing to around 5°C in sunnier areas.

Heading into the weekend, a more defined battle sets up between high pressure to the north and the active storm track to the south. This will result in a mix of sunny to partly cloudy conditions. Southern regions will likely see more cloud cover given their proximity to the storm track, while northern areas should benefit from increased sunshine.

• More weather coverage: Get farmers in on federal water security strategy planning, CFA says

Temperatures over the weekend are expected to reach around 5°C, which is near to slightly below seasonal averages for this time of year.

Early next week, attention turns to the potential development of a low pressure system over northern Alberta. If this system evolves as currently projected, it could draw milder air northward across the southern Prairies on Tuesday and Wednesday. This could push daytime highs closer to the 10°C mark.

Confidence remains low regarding the exact evolution of this system. Current model runs indicate the potential for another round of accumulating snowfall by midweek, likely in the Wednesday to Thursday timeframe, but details on track, intensity, and precipitation type remain uncertain.

The post Prairie forecast: Cooler than average temperatures expected to continue appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

The Almanac, a two-century-old annual source of long-range weather forecasts for farmers in the U.S. and Canada, said in a statement dated Jan. 28 it has been acquired by Tim Konrad, a New York City-based online publisher who operates Unofficial Networks, a news and feature site for skiing and outdoor enthusiasts.

WHY IT MATTERS: Regardless of how their weather forecasts check out, the almanacs have been a source of entertainment for farmers in both the U.S. and Canada for generations.

Financial terms of the deal weren’t disclosed in announcements from the Almanac or Unofficial Networks, nor did the new owner say whether any of the Almanac’s Canada-facing print and online content will also continue. Email messages to the new publisher haven’t yet been returned.

“I saw the announcement that one of America’s most enduring publications was set to close, and it felt wrong to stand by while an irreplaceable piece of our national heritage disappeared,” Konrad said in the announcement.

Konrad, also a co-founder of maritime and shipping news site GCaptain.com, said the Almanac will for now remain “fully accessible online” and “plans are underway to revive and expand the cherished annual print edition in future volumes.”

First published by Jacob Mann of Morristown, N.J. in 1818, the Almanac was eventually taken up by the Geiger family, whose publishing firm had printed the book starting in 1933 and acquired full ownership of the almanac business in 1949.

Peter Geiger, the Almanac’s previous publisher, said he’s “confident (Konrad) will honour its heritage and carry it forward for generations to come.”

‘Secret weather formula’

The Almanac last November said its plans to close “reflect(ed) the growing financial challenges of producing and distributing … in today’s chaotic media environment.”

The print version of the Farmers’ Almanac is an annual journal featuring regional weather forecasts based on a “secret weather formula,” plus astronomy information, folklore and assorted advice for farmers and home gardeners.

It is not to be confused with the Old Farmer’s Almanac, a separate annual journal now operated by Yankee Publishing of New Hampshire. That book dates back to 1792, when it was launched by farmer Robert B. Thomas, making long-range forecasts based on what the publisher describes as “a complex series of natural cycles and observations.”

In the Manitoba Co-operator, weather expert Daniel Bezte’s column in recent years has included regular Prairie weather outlooks which tracked and compared the accuracy of the previous outlook against those of both almanacs and of established Canadian and U.S. weather forecasting models.

Bezte’s monthly outlooks and other weather columns can be found here.

The post Farmers’ Almanac rescued from closure; fate of Canadian content unknown appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

Highlights:

• Arctic high pressure is expected to drop southward into the Prairies later this week and into the weekend, keeping temperatures below average.
• Central and northern Alberta can expect snow on Wednesday while the south sees a chance of flurries or scattered showers. Temperatures will fall below average.
• A low pressure system is expected to produce a swath of 5 to 10 cm of snow across the central Prairies on Wednesday.
• 
  

  Saskatchewan and Manitoba temperatures will trend below average toward the end of the week. Daytime highs are expected to reach around 5°C across extreme southern areas, while central regions will see highs closer to -5°C.

Overview

Despite the high level of uncertainty we typically see in spring, last week’s forecast played out surprisingly close to expectations. With a record breaking heat wave over much of the U.S., you might expect some of that warmth to push northward. However, a persistent ridge of Arctic high pressure over the northern Prairies has effectively kept that heat locked to our south.

We begin this forecast period with an area of low pressure tracking across the northern U.S. and an associated frontal boundary draped across the south-central Prairies. This is the same system that weather models indicated would impact the region in last week’s forecast.

More from Daniel Bezte: How the sun’s movement drives our weather

Behind it, Arctic high pressure is expected to drop southward into the Prairies later this week and into the weekend, keeping temperatures below average.

There are some indications of weak ridging building over the western Prairies late in the weekend, but model guidance has been inconsistent with this feature. At times models strengthen the ridge. At other times they keep it relatively weak. At this point, the consensus suggests the ridge will remain modest, allowing another area of low pressure to move through the region. This will bring an additional chance of snow, particularly across southern areas.

As is often the case this time of year, any passing low is likely to be followed by another push of Arctic high pressure. That means true spring warmth may still be a week or two away.

Alberta

This forecast period begins with an area of low pressure pushing eastward out of the Pacific. This system is expected to bring snow to much of central and northern Alberta on Wednesday, with general amounts in the 2 to 5 cm range. Across southern regions, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with a chance of flurries or scattered rain showers.

Once this system moves through, weak Arctic high pressure will settle into the region, bringing a return to below average temperatures. Daytime highs across central and northern areas are expected to fall to around -8°C, while southern regions cool to near -2°C.

Temperatures should begin to rebound over the weekend, particularly across southern Alberta, as a weak upper ridge develops. Expect sunny to partly cloudy skies, with daytime highs climbing into the 8 to 10°C range in the south and 3°C to 5°C across central regions.

Looking ahead to March 30 and 31, weather models indicate the potential for an area of low pressure over Wyoming that would then track eastward. If this system materializes, it could draw moisture northward and result in widespread snowfall across much of central and southern Alberta. Snowfall amounts remain uncertain at this time, and as is typical at this range, the details could change significantly.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

This forecast period begins with a frontal wave tied to an area of low pressure tracking across the northern U.S. That’s the same system referenced in last week’s forecast. As expected, its exact track and strength have shifted somewhat.

This system is expected to produce a swath of 5 to 10 cm of snow across the central Prairies, with totals tapering off significantly both north and south of this band. The system should exit the eastern Prairies by Thursday, followed by the southward advance of Arctic high pressure. This will bring a return to sunny skies and relatively light winds on Friday and through the weekend.

With Arctic high pressure in place, temperatures will trend below average. Daytime highs are expected to reach around 5°C across extreme southern areas, while central regions will see highs closer to -5°C.

Early next week, weather models are suggesting a pattern similar to the previous week, with another area of low pressure potentially developing over Wyoming and tracking eastward across the northern United States. While confidence in the development of this system is relatively high, its exact track and intensity remains uncertain. As with last week’s system, it will need to be monitored closely, as it may evolve into a more significant spring storm.

The post Prairie forecast: Arctic air keeps spring warming at bay appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

Highlights

• Several chances for rain and snow across central and northern Alberta
• Warm air has spread across Saskatchewan and will reach Manitoba on Wednesday before temperatures begin to cool on Sunday

Overview

While spring appears to be gaining a foothold across the western Prairies, it continues to struggle across the eastern regions. This forecast period looks milder than the last, but weather models are still not showing a clear or sustained shift toward a more spring-like pattern.

We begin this period with a shallow but broad upper ridge building across the southern Prairies while Arctic high pressure remains in place over northern Canada. Between these two features, several areas of low pressure are expected to move in from Pacific and track eastward across the central and northern Prairies.

More weather coverage: Taking a look at the spring forecast

Current model guidance suggests the upper ridge will begin to break down over the weekend, which will allow Arctic high pressure to push southward. This will shift the primary storm track from the central and northern Prairies into the central and southern regions by late weekend or early next week.

As a result, after a relatively warm start, cooler temperatures are expected to return. Along with this cooling trend comes an increased chance of precipitation which will likely fall mainly as snow.

There are also early indications of a potentially significant storm system affecting the southern and central Prairies around next Wednesday. However, as is often the case at this range, details remain uncertain.

Alberta

This forecast period begins with a surge of warm air supported by a building upper ridge and a strong westerly flow off the Pacific. Southern regions should see more sun than cloud from Wednesday through Friday, with daytime highs reaching the mid-teens.

Farther north, weak disturbances moving over the ridge will bring a mix of sun and cloud and the chance of a few showers. Temperatures in these areas should remain mild, with daytime highs around 10°C.

By the weekend, the upper ridge is expected to break down. This will allow cooler air to push southward while also shifting the storm track into the province.

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop over central Alberta on Saturday, bringing snow to those regions before tracking into southern areas late Saturday into early Sunday. It will bring the potential for accumulating snow. Daytime highs will drop significantly, settling near the freezing mark.

Cooler and more unsettled conditions are expected to continue through Sunday and Monday. Looking ahead to Tuesday, models indicate a stronger area of low pressure pushing inland from the Pacific. This system is expected to bring snow to central and northern regions on Wednesday.

Southern areas may see rain or a rain-snow mix transitioning to snow as colder air moves in behind the system. This is a system worth monitoring closely.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Milder air that has already spread across Saskatchewan will begin moving into Manitoba on Wednesday. Expect more clouds than sun from Wednesday through Friday as a couple of weak disturbances track eastward in the westerly flow aloft. A few scattered showers or flurries are possible with these systems.

Temperatures will be warmest across southern Saskatchewan were more sunshine is expected, with daytime highs in the 10 to 12°C range. Across Manitoba, conditions will be slightly cooler, with highs of 5 to 8°C in western regions and 3 to 5°C farther east.

As the upper ridge weakens and shifts southward on Saturday, an area of low pressure is expected to track across the southern Prairies, bringing a quick shot of accumulating snow with amounts generally expected to be only a couple of centimetres.

More weather coverage: What climate change data gets wrong about the Prairies

Temperatures will cool, with daytime highs falling into the 0 to 3°C range. Skies should begin to clear on Sunday as Arctic high pressure builds into the region. This will bring sunny conditions into Monday and Tuesday along with cooler-than-average temperatures.

Attention then turns to a potential storm system developing over central Alberta and moving eastward on Wednesday. Current indications suggest this system could bring snow and blowing snow to central regions, while southern areas may see rain or a mix transitioning to snow.

The system is expected to move east by late Thursday, followed by a return to colder conditions as Arctic high pressure builds in late in the week. As always with systems this far out, details may change, but it will be one to watch.

The post Prairie forecast: Warm start then cooler air to move back in appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

Highlights

• A low pressure system is forecast to track across southern Alberta late Wednesday and into Thursday morning bringing snowfall amounts in the five to 10 cm range. A few areas could see closer to 15 cm of snow.
• Saskatchewan and Manitoba will see the same low move eastward bringing the chance of five to eight cm of snow late this week.
• Early next week, warmer air will push into Alberta but may struggle to displace Arctic air over Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Overview

Over the past week we saw a predominantly northwesterly flow across the Prairies. This pattern helped keep the coldest air bottled up over the northern half of the region. However, as expected during the transition into spring, there was considerable uncertainty regarding how areas of low pressure rippling along this boundary would behave.

Those systems brought a mixed bag of weather, ranging from rain to freezing rain and drizzle, along with some heavier bursts of wet snow. Temperatures also continued their rollercoaster ride, climbing into the low teens on one day before dropping into the negative teens a day or two later.

For this forecast period, it appears we will need to wait a little longer for spring to arrive. Weather models continue to show a northwesterly flow across the region, but this time the dividing line between mild and cold air has shifted slightly farther south. As a result, near to below-average temperatures are expected across much of the Prairies as Arctic high pressure strengthens, while the primary track for low-pressure systems runs along the Canada–U.S. border.

More weather coverage: Five reasons why there are seasons

The first of these systems is forecast to track across southern Alberta late Wednesday and into Thursday morning, bringing snowfall amounts in the five to 10 cm range, with a few locations possibly seeing totals closer to 15 cm. This low will move quickly eastward across southern Saskatchewan late on Thursday before clipping extreme southern Manitoba late Thursday night into early Friday.

Areas along the system’s path in southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba could receive a quick 5 to 8 cm of snow.

High pressure should dominate over the weekend, bringing sunny to partly cloudy skies along with cooler conditions. Daytime highs are expected to range between -5°C and -10°C.

Early next week, warmer air is forecast to begin pushing northward into Alberta, bringing a return to milder temperatures. As this milder air advances north, precipitation may develop along the boundary between the warmer and colder air masses. This could bring some light snow to southern and central Saskatchewan on Tuesday and into Manitoba on Wednesday. As usual with forecasts several days out, particularly during spring, details may change.

Alberta

An area of low pressure is expected to develop late Wednesday as energy moves inland from the Pacific. This system is forecast to bring a quick burst of fairly heavy snow across much of southern Alberta, with five to 10 cm likely and locally higher amounts possible. In extreme southern regions, periods of rain or freezing rain may mix in at times.

Behind this system, Arctic high pressure will gradually build southward, bringing a mix of sun and cloud on Friday and Saturday along with cooler temperatures. Daytime highs across southern Alberta are expected to range from -4°C to -7°C, while central and northern regions see highs between -6°C and -10°C.

Late in the weekend and early next week, weather models indicate a large area of low pressure moving into the Gulf of Alaska. This will help push milder air northward into Alberta. Daytime highs across southern Alberta are expected to climb above freezing by Sunday, potentially reaching around 10 C by Tuesday.

Farther north, daytime highs should warm toward the freezing mark on Sunday and into the 2°C to 5°C range by Monday and Tuesday. There are also indications that some energy from the Gulf of Alaska system may move inland on Tuesday, which will bring a chance of light snow to far northern regions.

Unfortunately, the warmer air does not appear likely to last long, as models currently suggest cooler air pushing southward again later in the week.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

This forecast period begins with weak Arctic high pressure in place across both provinces. On Wednesday, this will bring a mix of sun and cloud along with temperatures near to slightly below average.

On Thursday, a low-pressure system moving east from Alberta is expected to bring increasing cloudiness along with a good chance of measurable snowfall, particularly south of the Trans-Canada Highway. Current indications suggest snowfall amounts in the five to eight cm range. The system will continue southeastward Thursday night, bringing similar amounts of snow to western Manitoba and then to extreme southern Manitoba late Thursday into early Friday morning before moving away.

More weather coverage: Southern Prairies brace for dry spring after below-normal winter

Over the weekend, Arctic high pressure will build southward once again, bringing sunny to partly cloudy skies and cool temperatures. Daytime highs are expected to range from -5°C to -8°C, with overnight lows dropping to around -20°C. The good news is that winds should remain light, and with the strengthening spring sunshine conditions should feel fairly pleasant despite the cooler temperatures.

Early next week, warmer air will begin pushing northward into Alberta. This milder air will attempt to spread eastward but may struggle to displace the colder Arctic air currently in place across Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Temperatures should begin to moderate gradually, with extreme southern regions approaching the freezing mark by Tuesday.

Along the boundary between the warmer and colder air masses, models suggest light snow or flurries may develop over Saskatchewan on Tuesday. They’ll then spread into Manitoba on Wednesday. Confidence in this part of the forecast remains relatively low at this time. Looking further ahead, the weather models are still not showing a sustained push of true spring conditions across the Prairies.

The post Prairie forecast: Arctic air dominates the forecast appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

This seasonal storage underpins water security across much of the country. Prairie agriculture depends heavily on mountain snowpack for irrigation. The Great Lakes basin relies on snowmelt to sustain spring inflows that support navigation, ecosystems and freshwater withdrawals. Hydropower systems in British Columbia and Quebec depend on snow accumulation and melt timing in upland watersheds.

WHY IT MATTERS: Farmers on the Prairies rely on mountain snowpack for irrigation, the Great Lakes basin relies on snowmelt to sustain spring inflows, and hydroelectricity systems in B.C. and Quebec also depend on snow accumulation in upland watersheds.

For decades, scientists and water managers have relied on snow water equivalent (SWE) to measure this winter water reservoir. SWE estimates how much liquid water snowpack would produce if melted instantly. It is physically intuitive and remains central to seasonal water forecasting.

But climate change is altering not only how much snow falls, but where snowpack persists and how long it lasts. Warmer winters are bringing more rain instead of snow, more frequent mid-winter melt events and shorter snow-cover duration. In many regions, peak snowpack now arrives earlier. Snow cover is becoming more intermittent, particularly during early winter and spring transitions.

These changes expose a limitation in traditional SWE measurements at large spatial scales. As temperatures rise, snow may disappear across large portions of a landscape while remaining deep in isolated patches. Under such conditions, the average snow water equivalent can appear stable even though the snow-covered area has shrunk substantially.

To address this limitation, colleagues and I have introduced a complementary metric called snow water availability (SWA). Rather than averaging snow water across an entire area, SWA estimates how much water exists within the portion of the landscape that is covered with snow. The metric combines SWE with satellite measurements or climate reanalysis estimates of the fraction of snow cover over the landscape. The result is a measure particularly sensitive to patchy snow, a condition that is becoming more common in a warmer climate.

Snow water availability

Using our SWA metric, we conduct a large-scale analysis across Canada and Alaska and have found pronounced differences in how snow water is changing. In northern and eastern regions, snow water availability has increased in recent decades. In some Arctic and sub-Arctic areas, reduced sea ice and warmer air temperatures enhance atmospheric moisture, increasing snowfall in northern regions.

However, in Western Canada, especially within the Rocky Mountains, significant declines in SWA are emerging in mid-elevation mountain headwaters. These regions feed major river drainage systems, including the Saskatchewan, Fraser and Columbia river basins.

The response of mountain snowpack to warming is strongly elevation-dependent. High alpine zones, where winter temperatures remain well below freezing, can retain relatively stable snowpacks. Low elevations may already experience intermittent snow.

However, mid-elevation transitional zones, where winter temperatures frequently hover near freezing, are especially climate-sensitive. Small temperature increases can shift precipitation from snow to rain, shorten snow-cover duration and accelerate melt timing and rate.

This creates an important asymmetry. Although overall, SWA has increased across Canada and Alaska between 2000 and 2019, gains in sparsely populated northern regions do not compensate for losses in southern and western headwaters where water demand is highest.

In addition, mountain regions function as natural water towers. When snow storage declines there, the effects propagate downstream through entire river basins. Where snow disappears can matter more for water supply reliability than how much accumulates elsewhere. The geography of loss matters.

Uneven snowpack

The impacts can be amplified when declines in western headwaters coincide with widespread but less statistically pronounced decreases downstream. Combined, these patterns influence drainage basins that support a large share of Canada’s population and economic activity.

Historical events underscore this vulnerability. The 2015 Western Canada snow drought reduced streamflow originating in Rocky Mountain headwaters, stressing municipal systems, agriculture and aquatic ecosystems. During the winter of 2011-2012, reduced snowpack in southern Ontario and Quebec contributed to depressed Great Lakes water levels, affecting shipping and water management.

Climate variability adds further complexity. Large-scale ocean–atmosphere patterns can amplify or temporarily offset warming effects from year to year. Some winters remain snow-rich; others are dominated by rain-on-snow and/or mid-winter melt events. But long-term warming increases the likelihood of SWA loss in patchy snow regimes across climate-sensitive elevations.

Despite its advantages, our proposed SWA is not free of uncertainty. Snow observations remain sparse in remote northern and high-elevation regions. Satellite products are affected by cloud cover, vegetation and polar nights.

Climate reanalysis rely on modelling assumptions that vary among models and products. While basin-scale trends can be detected with reasonable confidence, uncertainty increases at finer spatial scales, where slope orientation, vegetation, terrain details and microclimate greatly affect SWA.

As water management decisions increasingly require sub-basin precision, improving spatial resolution and physical realism in snow monitoring becomes essential. Future research will require improved satellite observations, enhanced land-surface modelling and expanded ground-based monitoring networks.

In a warming climate, understanding how much snow exists, where it persists, how fragmented it becomes and how quickly it disappears will be central to anticipating water supply risks.

Canada’s snowpack is not simply shrinking or growing; it is becoming more uneven. And in an uneven landscape, the location of loss can matter more than the total amount of gain.

Ali Nazemi is an associate engineer of building, civil and environmental engineering at Concordia University in Montreal.

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