The attaché projected a wheat harvest of 15.80 million tonnes, a sharp improvement over the 2023/24 crop of 12.11 million that was hampered by dry conditions. However, the expectations for 2024/25 will be less than the 2022/23 crop of 16.40 million tonnes.

The Astana desk noted the heavy flooding this spring in the north and west of Kazakhstan, but a system of Soviet-era dikes mitigated the extent of the water on wheat fields. Rather much of the damage was to rural residential areas and to livestock, with about 112,500 head were evacuated. More than 7,000 head were lost, mostly sheep.

The area of Kazakhstan to be harvested was pegged at 13.20 million hectares, up from the 13.13 million last year and the 12.89 million the year before that. Yields were projected to rebound, with the attaché estimating 1.20 tonnes of wheat per hectare from the 0.92 in 2023/24, but short of the 1.27 in 2022/23.

While Kazakhstan wheat exports are to climb to 11.10 million tonnes from last year’s 10 million, imports are to ease back to two million compared to the 2.20 million in 2023/24. Prior to that exports were 10.50 million tonnes in 2022/23 and imports topped 3.10 million.

Total consumption is set to increase to 6.20 million tonnes this new crop year versus the 5.95 million in 2023/24. Based on a total supply of nearly 19.26 million tonnes, ending stocks were projected to rise to almost 1.96 million. In 2023/24 total supply was short of 17.41 million tonnes and ending stocks were almost 1.46 million. Those for 2022/23 saw a total supply of slightly under 21 million tonnes and ending stocks just short of 3.10 million.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg

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The United States wheat complex was somewhat mixed as well, with Chicago prices dipping while those for Kansas City and Minneapolis pushed upward. Support for Canadian cash prices were bolstered by a drop in the dollar.

Average CWRS (13.5%) prices were up C$0.60 to C$3.50 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Those prices ranged from about C$292.10 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to C$317.70 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels varied from location to location and ranged from C$49.90 to C$75.50 per tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting Canadian prices to United States dollars (C$1=US$0.7369), CWRS bids ranged from US$215.20 to US$234.10 per tonne. That would put the currency adjusted basis levels at about US$8.10 to US$26.90 below the futures.

Looking at it the other way around, if the Minneapolis futures are converted to Canadian dollars, CWRS basis levels across Western Canada ranged from C$5.90 to C$19.80 below the futures.

Average CPRS (11.5%) wheat gained C$2.90 to C$6.50 per tonne. Bids ranged from C$251.90 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to C$276.06 per tonne in northern Alberta.

Average CWAD prices lost C$4.30 to tacking on C$0.30 per tonne. Bids ranged from C$392.40 per tonne in northeastern Saskatchewan to C$407.50 per tonne in southern Alberta.

The May spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts Canada are based off of, was quoted at US$6.5900 per bushel on Feb. 29, bumping up 3.50 cents on the week.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPRS in Canada. The May Kansas City wheat contract was quoted at US$5.8725 per bushel on Feb. 29, advancing 15.75 cents compared to a week ago.

The May Chicago Board of Trade soft wheat contract settled at US$5.7625 per bushel on Feb. 29, easing back three cents.

The Canadian dollar closed Feb. 29 at 73.69 U.S. cents, losing a little more than four-tenths of a cent during the week.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg. 

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In a wrap-up to mark the end of the wheat season, the exchange said planting of the crop had been 5.9 million hectares (14.6 million acres), its lowest in the last five seasons due to dry weather last year that has since reversed with decent rains.

The lower planting dented initial production estimates.

“The campaign ends 3.1 million tons below the initial outlook due to the reduced planting area, late frosts in early October and a large part of the central farm area affected by water stress during the critical period,” it added

The national average yield for wheat was around 25 per cent higher than the previous cycle, but 2.7 per cent lower than the average yield of the last five campaigns, it added. The harvest was up 23.8 per cent.

It added that despite the improved harvest versus the drought-hit 2022/23 season, lower global prices would dent the crop’s economic impact this year, though a rebound in exports should help bring in more tax revenues for the government.

Argentina is a key global wheat exporter and one of the top suppliers of soy and corn. It is heavily reliant on grains exports for foreign currency income needed to refill depleted reserves and bolster the embattled economy.

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Average Canada Western Red Spring (13.5%) wheat prices were down by C$2.90 to C$3.50 per tonne across the Prairies, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices ranged from C$311.10 per tonne in northeastern Saskatchewan to as high as C$334.10 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels varied from location to location and ranged from $49.70 to $72.70 per tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

 When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting everything into Canadian dollars (C$1=US$0.7488) CWRS basis levels ranged from C$8.40 to C$21.30 below the futures.

Canada Prairie Spring Red (CPSR) wheat bids were also lower, down by C$4.80 to C$5.80 per tonne, with prices ranging from C$265.90 to C$289.50 per tonne.

Average durum prices were mixed, although the bias was higher in most locations with prices down 20 cents to up C$2.30 per tonne. Durum prices ranged from C$441.60 to C$448.20 per tonne.

Spring wheat futures in Minneapolis were down by 14.25 cents per bushel in the March contract to settle at US$7.1125 per bushel on Jan. 4.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPSR in Canada. The March Kansas City wheat contract was down by 18.00 cents on the week to close at US$6.2575 per bushel on Jan. 4.

The March Chicago Board of Trade soft wheat contract settled at US$6.1350 per bushel on Jan. 4, down by 18.00 cents on the week.

The Canadian dollar weakened relative to its United States counterpart, losing just over three-quarters of a cent to settle at 74.88 U.S. cents on Jan. 4.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.

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Average CWRS (13.5 per cent) wheat prices were down by C$7 to C$8 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices ranged from about C$227 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to as high as C$243 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels varied from location to location and ranged from $29 to $40 per tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting Canadian prices to U.S. dollars (C$1=US$0.7648) CWRS bids ranged from US$173 to US$186 per tonne. That would put the currency adjusted basis levels at about US$17 to US$30 below the futures.

Looking at it the other way around, if the Minneapolis futures are converted to Canadian dollars, CWRS basis levels across Western Canada range from C$22 to C$38 below the futures.

Wheat bids for CPSR were down by C$7 to C$9 per tonne. Prices ranged from C$189 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to C$203 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Average durum prices were steady to lower, with bids ranging from C$267 per tonne in southwestern Saskatchewan to C$288 per tonne in southern Alberta.

The December spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts Canada are based off of, was quoted at US$5.40 per bushel on October 24, down 12 cents from the previous week.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPSR in Canada. The December Kansas City wheat contract was quoted at US$4.195 per bushel on October 24, down 11 cents from the previous week.

The December Chicago Board of Trade soft wheat contract settled at US$5.16 per bushel on October 24, down 9.5 cents on the week.

The Canadian dollar closed at 76.48 U.S. cents on October 24, an increase of a third of a cent from the previous week.

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Average Canada Western Red Spring (13.5% CWRS) wheat prices were down slightly, falling by less than a dollar to C$2 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices ranged from about C$249 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan, to as high as C$270 in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels varied from location to location and ranged from $34 to $55 per tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting Canadian prices to U.S. dollars (C$1=US$0.7625) CWRS bids ranged from US$190 to US$206 per tonne. That would put the currency adjusted basis levels at about US$9 to US$25 below the futures.

Looking at it the other way around, if the Minneapolis futures are converted to Canadian dollars, CWRS basis levels across Western Canada range from C$12 to C$33 below the futures.

Canada Prairie Red Spring (CPRS) wheat bids were weaker, falling by C$4 to C$5 per tonne depending on the location. Prices ranged from C$213 to C$229 per tonne in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Average durum prices were narrowly mixed, with bids ranging anywhere from C$211 in southwestern Saskatchewan to C$222 in western Manitoba, depending on the location.

The December spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts Canada are based off of, was quoted at US$5.8000 per bushel on Nov. 8, down by one U.S. cent from the previous week.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPRS in Canada. The December Kansas City wheat contract was quoted at US$4.9725 per bushel on Nov. 8, down by seven U.S. cents compared to the previous week.

The December Chicago Board of Trade soft wheat contract settled at US$5.0775 per bushel on Nov. 8, down by a cent on the week.

The Canadian dollar settled at 76.25 U.S cents on Nov. 8, which was steady on the week.

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“We’re getting some pressure in these markets because of the harvest pace that’s going on for the U.S. producer. So farmers are out there, they’re getting their work done,” said Steve Georgy, president of Allendale Inc.

While the soybean harvest is behind schedule compared to years past, yields are looking good still. The market has also seen some pressure from the ongoing trade war between the United States and China. Some large sales of soybeans were also cancelled during the last week.

“All that compiled together is what’s keeping beans about where they’re at. November beans around US$8.50 a bushel is kind of a happy spot. If we go much below that we see demand start to kick in…but much above that you’ve got producers selling and able to take advantage of a little bit higher prices,” Georgy said.

The market should be choppy for the rest of the week though as traders adjust their positions before the November contract expires.

“Overall harvest is going to keep any kind of big rally from happening at this point unless we see something done with trade,” Georgy said.

The CBOT corn market is currently stuck in a sideways pattern with the lows already priced in, according to Georgy. He expects the market to chop around at the US$3.70 per bushel mark.

“Any time you get a big bounce for corn or you see that move higher it’s met with selling because farmers need to find a home for (the crop),” Georgy said. The U.S. corn harvest is just over 50 per cent complete and farmers could be looking to sell some of the crop as it comes off the combine.

The corn market though could find itself being influenced by the wheat market. The CBOT wheat market is currently range bound at around the US$5 per bushel mark and if the export pace picks up Georgy thinks that it could move higher.

“If we can get the wheat market to jump higher that may influence that corn to push a little bit higher as well,” he said.

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After trending lower for most of June and into early July, the Minneapolis December spring wheat contract settled at US$6.2275 per bushel on July 31, an increase of about 75 cents over the past two weeks. The contract traded as high as US$6.60 per tonne in late-May, and a retest of those levels is possible, according to Bryan Strommen of Progressive Ag in Fargo, North Dakota.

He said production issues in Russia, the European Union, Australia and even China all contributed to the gains in North American wheat prices. A crop tour of the United States spring wheat growing regions also “gave it a shot in the arm” by predicting slightly lower-than-expected yields.

“A lot of guys just didn’t get the rain when they were needing it,” said Strommen. He said disease issues were also being reported in some areas.

As a result, he expected Minneapolis spring wheat would gain some ground relative to Chicago and Kansas City winter wheats, with Kansas City hard red wheat also likely to rise relative to the Chicago soft wheat. “We should see the protein wheats carry a premium to Chicago,” said Strommen.

While many factors are pointing to higher prices, Strommen added that “exports have been less than stellar.” While the production problems elsewhere in the world should be drawing more demand to U.S. wheat, that buying interest hasn’t come forward yet.

The trade issues with China are another bearish influence in the background, as a continuation of the dispute could see U.S. farmers seed fewer soybean acres going forward and more wheat and corn.

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Depending on the location, average Canada Western Red Spring (13.5 per cent protein CWRS) wheat prices were down C$3 to C$5 per tonne across the Prairie provinces, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices ranged from about C$242 per tonne in western Manitoba, to as high as C$264 in northern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels varied from location to location, but generally improved to range from about $9 to $31 per tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar-denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting Canadian prices to U.S. dollars (C$1=US$0.7823) CWRS bids ranged from US$189 to US$207 per tonne, which was down on a U.S. dollar basis on the week. That would put the currency adjusted basis levels at about US$26 to US$44 below the futures.

Looking at it the other way around, if the Minneapolis futures are converted to Canadian dollars, CWRS basis levels across Western Canada range from C$33 to C$56 below the futures.

Canada Prairie Red Spring (CPRS) wheat bids were anywhere from C$4 higher to C$7 higher. Prices across the Prairies ranged from C$172 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to C$191 per tonne in northern Alberta.

Average durum prices held within a couple of dollars unchanged, with bids in Saskatchewan and Manitoba ranging from about C$267 to C$281 per tonne.

The December spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts Canada are based off of, was quoted at US$6.35 per bushel on Nov. 17, which was down by 13 U.S. cents from the previous week.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPRS in Canada. The December Kansas City wheat contract was quoted at US$4.20 per bushel on Nov. 17, down by 9 U.S. cents compared to the previous week.

The December Chicago Board of Trade soft wheat contract settled at US$4.2725 on Nov. 17, which was down by 1.75 U.S. cents on the week.

The Canadian dollar settled at 78.23 U.S. cents on Nov. 17, which was down by roughly half a cent compared to the previous week.

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Depending on the location, average Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat prices were down by C$2 to C$4 per tonne across the Prairie provinces, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices ranged from about C$270 per tonne in western Manitoba, to as high as C$284 in eastern Manitoba.

Quoted basis levels varied from location to location, but generally improved by a couple of dollars to range from about $4 to $19 per tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the US dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting Canadian prices to US dollars (C$1=US$0.7950 as of August 3) CWRS bids ranged from US$215 to US$226 per tonne. That would put the currency adjusted basis levels at about US$39 to US$50 below the futures.

Looking at it the other way around, if the Minneapolis futures are converted to Canadian dollars, CWRS basis levels across Western Canada range from C$49 to C$63 below the futures.

Canada Prairie Red Spring (CPRS) wheat bids were down by C$9 to C$10 per tonne, with prices ranging from C$169 to C$179 per tonne.

Average durum prices were up by C$2 to C$4 per tonne, with bids in Saskatchewan coming in at about C$284 to C$314 per tonne.

The September spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts Canada are based off of, was quoted at US$7.1325 per bushel on August 3, down by 27.25 US cents from the previous week.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPRS in Canada. The September Kansas City wheat contract was quoted at US$4.5975 per bushel on August 3, down by 21.25 US cents compared to the previous week.

The September Chicago Board of Trade soft wheat contract settled at US$4.5775 on August 3, which was down by 23.25 US cents on the week.

The Canadian dollar settled at 70.50 US cents on August 3, which was down by roughly three-quarters of a cent on the week.

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