The trade deficit in May met expectations at C$5.9 billion, down from a downwardly revised C$7.6 billion in the prior month, Statistics Canada said. Exports increased by 1.1 per cent on a monthly basis after an 11 per cent slump in April.

This was the first increase in exports in four months, StatCan said, and was driven by record exports to the rest of the world, excluding the U.S.

“The biggest takeaway I see from the data is just diversification,” said Prince Owusu, senior economist with Export Development Canada.

“While we continue to bleed in the U.S., we are basically diverting trade to other markets,” he said.

Trade with U.S. at lowest levels since 2020

The share of the exports and imports with the U.S. dropped to their lowest levels in May, barring the pandemic year of 2020.

Exports to the U.S., Canada’s biggest trading partner, fell for the fourth month in a row with May registering a drop of 0.9 per cent.

In volume terms total exports were up 0.7 per cent in May.

President Donald Trump has imposed 25 per cent tariffs on imports of Canada-made automobiles and 50 per cent tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum. Canada has also imposed retaliatory tariffs.

This trade skirmish between the two countries whose bilateral trade surpassed a trillion Canadian dollars last year has depleted Canada’s exports and has hit the job market.

Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney and Trump are aiming to reach some form of a trade deal by July 21.

Canada’s total exports for May were C$60.81 billion, up from C$60.12 billion in April, StatCan said.

This category increased by 15.1 per cent, driven mainly by exports of unwrought gold that were up 30.1 per cent to reach a record $5.9 billion.

“Most of the rise was attributable to higher physical shipments of gold to the United Kingdom,” the statistics agency said. Excluding metal and non-metallic mineral products, total exports were down 1.2 per cent, it added.

Canada looking for trade diversification

As trade with the U.S. has dropped, Canadian companies have been scouting for opportunities to increase trade with rest of the world.

Exports to countries other than the United States rose 5.7 per cent in May to reach a record high, StatCan said, but it was not enough to fully mitigate the impact of lost exports to the U.S., as well as China due to a drop in canola and crude oil shipments.

Total imports dropped by 1.6 per cent to C$66.66 billion, with imports from the U.S. falling by 1.2 per cent in May.

The Canadian dollar slightly weakened after the trade data and was trading down 0.23 per cent to 1.3615 to the U.S. dollar. Yields on the two-year government bonds were up 3.7 basis points to 2.706 per cent.

The deficit in May, albeit narrower than the prior month, is still among the highest seen historically and economists said that two months of decline will pull down the second quarter GDP.

The post Canada’s trade deficit narrows in May, US exports drop to lowest since pandemic appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

Trump, however, imposed even higher tariffs on nations the White House considers bad actors. He imposed a 34 per cent tariff on Chinese imports on top of the existing 20 per cent and says he will impose a 20 per cent tariff on imports from the European Union and a 24 per cent tariff on Japanese imports.

Beef and cattle from Canada and Mexico appear to be exempt from tariffs but the danger is whether these and other countries will impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural and other exports. Most of the tariffs took effect on April 5, with some on April 9. The effect of any kind of tariffs would be huge, given the integrated nature of the North American meat and livestock industry (as I outlined in my April column). 

Australian livestock producers are unhappy, however, as their beef, sheep and goat meat exports to the U.S. will be exposed to the 10 per cent tariff. While the size of the tariff is at the upper end of the scale anticipated by Australian stakeholders, a long list of other countries exporting goods to the U.S. will be subjected to tariff impositions much higher than Australia’s 10 per cent, says Jon Condon, journalist at Australia’s Beef Central. 

On lean beef trimmings used to make U.S. hamburgers, it is estimated that the tariff on Australian products will cost the U.S. consumer $180 million per year, says Condon. He noted that Trump singled out Australian beef for mention in his White House announcement on April 2. Australians are wonderful people “but they banned American beef — yet we imported $3 billion worth of Australian beef last year alone,” Trump said. 

Brazil will also sit among the baseline trade partner countries at 10 per cent. But it remains unclear whether that will be stacked on top of Brazil’s existing 26.5 per cent tariff on beef exports to the U.S., as Brazil exceeded its quota in January. 

Response by major U.S. meat and livestock trade groups to the tariff announcement was largely muted. The executive order issued by the White House provides more clarity on the administration’s approach to reciprocal tariffs, and the U.S Meat Export Federation appreciates the White House bringing attention to the markets in which U.S. exports face significant trade barriers, said Dan Halstrom, president and CEO of the federation. The federation also appreciates that the U.S. is maintaining zero duties on USMCA-compliant products. The U.S Meat Export Federation’s main concern is how trade partners will react. The federation hopes they will focus on eliminating trade barriers rather than imposing restrictive countermeasures, he said.

The Meat Institute confirmed it would work with the Trump administration on ways to increase market access for meat and poultry products. It will also work with its members to understand the impact on the industry as tariffs and retaliatory tariffs take effect, said president and CEO Julie Anna Potts. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association provided a strongly worded statement about trade barriers on U.S. beef. For too long, America’s family farmers and ranchers have been mistreated by certain trading partners around the world, said Ethan Lane, senior vice-president of government affairs of the association. President Trump is taking action to address numerous trade barriers that prevent consumers overseas from enjoying high-quality, wholesome American beef, he said.

– A North American view of the meat industry. Steve Kay is publisher and editor of Cattle Buyers Weekly.

The post Canadian beef exporters breathe a sigh of relief appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

Canada Beef has been working hard to expand Canadian beef’s presence in key export and high-opportunity markets, many of which were affected by the U.S. reciprocal tariffs. Canada Beef is actively exploring all alternative export markets where the further expansion and diversification of Canadian beef exports have potential.

In March, the Canadian Beef Check-Off Agency board approved the Canada Beef Investment Plan and Budget for the 2025–26 fiscal year, which commenced April 1. The investment plan represents an increase in strategies to maximize opportunities for Canadian beef and broaden consumer loyalty despite a tight market and sustained pressure on the retail price environment. 

The market diversification activities in the investment plan are more important than ever in the current uncertain environment, including the renewal of the USMCA in 2026.

With robust demand for beef and a tight supply forecasted to continue, the strategies in the investment plan will help Canada Beef deliver on its mission to create value for producers and the entire beef value chain through marketing solutions to enhance demand, experience and awareness.

Plan tactics are designed to position Canadian beef as the protein of choice, appreciated worldwide, to maximize the return on investment for producers, partners and customers. 

Market diversification is why Canada Beef travelled to the United Arab Emirates, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan and the Philippines in recent weeks. During these trips, the team met with major retailers, importers and distributors, as well as packers’ sales teams, to share the Canadian beef advantage story and explore opportunities. We also participated in four food shows.

From April to October, Canada Beef plans to exhibit at the Seoul Food Show in South Korea, Food and Hospitality Indonesia, World Food Expo in the Philippines, ANUGA in Germany as well as a demand-building seminar in Japan. Additional demand-building seminars in Canada Beef’s key emerging Asian markets are in development for later in the year. 

Eric Bienvenue, Canada Beef president, and Albert Eringfeld, vice-president of export market development, will also expand the number of market development missions to Asian markets. Canada Beef will meet with new and existing importers, distributors, retailers and food-service operators; participate in various promotional initiatives; and further leverage the support available from the Canadian trade commissioner service and other Canadian government organizations in the region. 

Canada Beef is working hard to elevate affinity for Canadian beef at home as well, using platforms such as the “Pick the Beef with the Leaf” campaign. The latest tactic involved the launch of a high-visibility, Canadian Beef wrap on the exterior of a Toronto transit commission bus that encouraged Canadians to pick the beef with the leaf. Additional signage inside the bus encouraged riders to post a selfie with the bus and enter the “three cues” contest. The bus took different routes through Toronto streets each day of the campaign to maximize exposure to the messaging on city streets. Posts promoting the bus and its travels were featured on Canada Beef’s social media channels.

The investment plan will also see Canada Beef use tactics to elevate customer experience and connection with Canadian beef and partner with industry to grow mindshare in areas of mutual interest. 

The Canadian Beef Marketing Alliance Program is a new, collaborative marketing initiative to support projects that expand the reach of messaging for Canadian consumers to grow mindshare in priority areas, such as underused beef cuts. This innovative cost-shared initiative (50-50 projects) is open to industry partners that meet the program requirements for collaboration on projects with Canada Beef to promote Canadian beef.

Appealing to Canada’s changing demographics is another focus area, with millennials now outnumbering baby boomers and immigration driving most of the population growth. Tactics that focus on sustainable beef production to build public trust will help to influence and promote awareness of Canadian beef in shifting market segments. 

Domestic initiatives to promote the value of beef as a protein and nutrition powerhouse for all ages and stages of life, and strategies to showcase the versatility of beef value cuts and beef products to satisfy a range of preferences and household budgets, will cultivate brand awareness among demographics such as women, parents of infants, seniors and immigrant and new Canadian communities. 

Positioning the Canadian beef advantage as a representation of the positive attributes that differentiate Canadian beef, while highlighting specific attributes valued by consumers and customers at home and abroad, will instill a sense of pride and build an emotional connection to Canadian beef.

Canada Beef recently amalgamated both of its X accounts to @CanadaBeefInc, tooled specifically for a beef producer and industry stakeholder audience. Additionally, oversight of @CanadaBeefInc and the producer Facebook channel @CanadaBeefInc was transitioned to Canada Beef’s stakeholder communications department.

Content for @CanadaBeefInc will focus on pertinent information for stakeholders and timely updates on activities underway at Canada Beef to increase demand for Canadian beef at home and abroad. 

Be sure to follow us on the producer handle @CanadaBeefInc on X and Facebook for the latest information.

– Eric Bienvenue is a strategic leader with more than 25 years of senior leadership experience in Canada’s animal protein sectors. A native of Saint-Valérien, Que., Bienvenue is based out of Canada Beef’s Calgary headquarters and resides in Airdrie, Alta. Gina Teel is the director of stakeholder communications for Canada Beef, where she provides timely and effective communication of all Canada Beef initiatives and outcomes to funding partners and industry stakeholders, media, consumers, and other external audiences.

The post Canada Beef invests in market diversification, domestic demand to counter U.S. trade turmoil appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

Canada Beef’s focus on keeping beef on people’s dinner plates at home and abroad remains keen as the fiscal year winds down and we go forward under a new business plan. Producers can rest assured that Canada Beef has its eye on the ball in terms of the challenges and opportunities to maintain demand for Canadian beef.

The “Burger it Forward” campaign is a great way to get Canadians on board with beef and support a good cause. The third annual campaign launched on February 1 with a record 248 participating restaurants signed up as this column went to press. Organizers expect a few more restaurants to join.

• MORE ‘Keeping Up With Canada Beef’: Showcasing Canadian beef at SIAL Paris

This campaign is a giveback initiative created by Canada’s beef farmers and ranchers to support community restaurants and Canadian ground beef supply while raising funds for food banks at local, regional and national levels.

Each participating restaurant serves up a special burger featuring 100 per cent Canadian beef for the campaign. For every campaign-featured burger purchased, Canada Beef will donate the equivalent of one meal to Food Banks Canada, up to a maximum of 20,000 meals (based on Food Banks Canada’s meal metric: $1 = two meals). Participating provincial cattle producer associations also provide support to their regional food banks by donating funds or ground beef.

The 2024 campaign raised $67,406 for food banks and sold 59,794 burgers at 199 participating restaurants across Canada. The goal is to best that outcome this year.

The “Burger it Forward” 2025 campaign runs February 1-28. Check out the campaign website (burgeritforward.ca) to find participating restaurants in regions across Canada where you can buy featured campaign burgers and help support an important initiative to address food insecurity.

Canada Beef’s business planning also includes participating in select trade missions and trade shows in priority markets to promote Canadian beef and explore opportunities to grow market share.

In December, Canada Beef participated in the Team Canada trade mission to Indonesia and the Philippines led by Minister of Export Promotion, International Trade and Economic Development, Mary Ng.

Indonesia and the Philippines represent an opportunity for grain-fed Canadian beef as both countries seek to diversify their beef imports from a food security perspective.

Eric Bienvenue, Canada Beef president and Deana Kao, director of market development, Taiwan, Southeast Asia, and Hong Kong joined the Canadian Cattle Association’s Nathan Phinney (president) and Jennifer Babcock (senior director, government and public affairs) on the Team Canada trade mission. They met with Minister Ng to discuss the Indo-Pacific as well as the Canada-U.S. relationship.

In addition to the formal trade mission program, Canada Beef and the CCA met with local importers, distributors, retailers and food service industry representatives in both countries to showcase Canadian beef and position Canada as a reliable supplier of high-quality protein. 

Canadian beef was promoted to local buyers and food industry influencers in workshops organized by Canada Beef and was served at most of the networking events organized for participants and local industry invitees in this mission. Building awareness of the Canadian beef advantage, the stewardship of Canada’s beef producers, and Canada’s sustainable beef production system was a crucial aspect of this market development initiative.

The Indo-Pacific is Canada’s second-largest regional export market after the U.S. In 2023, annual two-way merchandise trade between Canada and the region was valued at $257 billion.

Canada Beef’s involvement in many aspects of the beef value chain ensures collaboration with industry and alignment on matters of importance. For example, Bienvenue attended national events such as Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s animal protein table meeting in Ottawa in January to discuss issues affecting the beef sector, and CattleCon 2025 in Texas to network with producers and learn more about National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and U.S. Meat Export Federation perspectives on the new U.S. administration as well as initiatives abroad.

In March, Bienvenue will participate in the Annual Meat Conference in Florida, to take in the latest innovations and trends in the retail meat space as well as perspectives on the future of meat retail.

Canada Beef’s engagement with industry is a two-way street. On the flip side, research conducted in Canada Beef’s health and nutrition space is available to industry policy groups to use in their respective advocacy efforts. Resources created by the health and nutrition team are available directly to health professionals via SampleCupboard, and stakeholders via the Thinkbeef Resource Centre, and at conferences.

At a recent Diabetes Canada conference in Nova Scotia, Canada Beef was the only food-related booth among about 40 exhibitors. The team spoke with an estimated 200-300 health professionals at the booth. The conference attracted over 1,200 attendees, primarily doctors, registered dietitians, registered nurses and researchers.

Canada Beef also provides culinary and consumer marketing expertise and support to the industry. Recent examples saw Canada Beef partner once again with Alberta Beef Producers to bring influencer and pit master Mel Chmilar Jr. and his “Darkside of the Grill” demonstrations to Farmfair International, and with Saskatchewan Cattlemen’s Association on a Canadian beef cooking stage at Canadian Western Agribition.

Canada Beef looks forward to continued collaboration with stakeholders.

– Eric Bienvenue is a strategic leader with more than 25 years of senior leadership experience in Canada’s animal protein sectors. A native of Saint-Valérien, Que., Bienvenue is based out of Canada Beef’s Calgary headquarters and resides in Airdrie, Alta. Gina Teel is the director of stakeholder communications for Canada Beef, where she provides timely and effective communication of all Canada Beef initiatives and outcomes to funding partners and industry stakeholders, media, consumers, and other external audiences.

The post Trade missions, ‘Burger it Forward’ and more appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

Restaurant recruitment for the 2025 “Burger it Forward” campaign kicked into high gear, well ahead of the February 1 launch, to ensure this important giveback created by Canada’s beef farmers and ranchers will be the biggest effort yet. The team also continued to foster educational enrichment with the Canadian culinary community through its partnership with Taste Canada.

• RELATED: Agribition 2024: Beef promoted at Agribition

All of these initiatives are part of a multi-pronged approach to build demand for Canadian beef at home and abroad through education and awareness.

For example, the Canadian Beef Centre of Excellence collaborates with Canada Beef’s export market development team to provide product familiarization workshops to partners visiting Canada on inbound trade missions. These partners include buyers, distributors, and retail and food service operators.

In October and November, the Canadian Beef Centre of Excellence’s presentation to visitors from Latin America and Asia featured a comprehensive overview of the Canadian beef advantage. These familiarizations also include butchery demonstrations and product samplings that showcase Canadian beef’s differentiating attributes and versatility to broaden use.

The workshops were enhanced by the centre’s sophisticated visual displays and audio equipment, which now offer simultaneous translation. This newly available tool was offered for the first time in November 2024. The centre’s ability to minimize language barriers enhances inclusivity and understanding of Canadian beef advantage messaging, partnership opportunities and product attributes.

In November, Albert Eringfeld, Canada Beef vice-president of export market development, led the roadshow to Japan and Korea, Canada’s third- and fourth-largest export markets for beef, respectively. Eringfeld was joined on the roadshow by cattle ranchers Crystal and Chad Ross from L-7 Land and Cattle Co. in Saskatchewan. As producers, the Rosses provided a unique and important perspective during Canada Beef’s seminars and meetings with partners in the market. The team visited Tokyo, Nagoya, Osaka, Hiroshima and Fukuoka with support from Canada Beef Japan’s local team.

In Seoul, South Korea, about 140 local meat and food industry representatives attended the Canada Beef seminar where presentations on the Canadian beef advantage, the Canadian beef production industry and Canadian beef supply options to Korea were provided. A beef cutting demo focused on an underused cut was also provided by chef Kim of Chungbuk Provincial University. The team also met with Canadian beef suppliers, importers, distributors and retailers, and joined the Coex Food Week tradeshow where Canada Beef was exhibiting. “It was great to see the strong interest in the South Korean market for our beef and export growth opportunities,” noted Eringfeld.

Back in Canada, preparations for the third annual Burger it Forward campaign were in full swing. The month-long campaign, which will launch on February 1, 2025, strives to support community restaurants and Canadian ground beef supply while raising funds for food banks at local, regional and national levels. Canada Beef works with provincial producer associations for consumer engagement and food bank contributions.

Canada Beef’s goal is to increase restaurant participation in Burger it Forward every year, making active participation from restaurants essential for this giveback’s success. The 2024 campaign raised more than $67,000 for food banks across the country and sold over 59,000 burgers at 199 participating restaurants across Canada.

The partnership between Taste Canada and Canada Beef supports culinary excellence, bridges the gap between classroom education and real-world application and inspires aspiring chefs nationwide. The Cooks the Books student cooking competition is core to this collaboration. Now in its third year with Canada Beef as the presenting sponsor, the partnership brings together events and initiatives that reach culinary educators, students and Canadian culinary writers with educational information on the Canadian beef advantage and the Canadian Beef Information Gateway.

For instance, the 2024 Cooks the Books competition featured the theme “global flavours grow in Canada.” Student chefs from culinary schools across Canada were tasked with crafting unique recipes with premium Canadian ingredients, using a special cut of Canadian beef each team selected from the Canadian Beef Information Gateway — food service edition.

As part of the competition, Mathieu Paré, chef and Canadian Beef Centre of Excellence executive director, hosted a virtual “Graded for Greatness” workshop. The online session provided Cooks the Books participants, college faculty and industry professionals with an in-depth understanding of Canadian beef grading, its importance to chefs and how various grades can be best used in the kitchen. This educational element underscored Canada Beef’s dedication to enhancing students’ knowledge and practical skills.

Other co-sponsored related activities included a field trip to the University of Guelph’s Beef Research Centre in Elora, Ont., for a field-to-table experience that showcased the connection between sustainable agricultural practices and the culinary industry, and hosting a chef station showcasing recipes featuring oxtail, prepared by chef Bradley Yip. This event brought together industry leaders, chefs, authors and media to celebrate the richness of Canadian food culture.

For the latest information on Canada Beef’s domestic and international efforts to increase demand for Canadian beef while ensuring the maximum value for producer dollars, please subscribe to Canada Beef Performs (canadabeef.ca/canadabeefperforms). c

Eric Bienvenue is a strategic leader with more than 25 years of senior leadership experience in Canada’s animal protein sectors. A native of Saint-Valérien, Que., Bienvenue is based out of Canada Beef’s Calgary headquarters and resides in Airdrie, Alta. Gina Teel is the director of stakeholder communications for Canada Beef, where she provides timely and effective communication of all Canada Beef initiatives and outcomes to funding partners and industry stakeholders, media, consumers, and other external audiences.

The post Building demand for Canadian beef at home and abroad appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

The two parties are seeking to update their trade accord from 2000, which covers only industrial goods, by adding services, government procurement, investment and farm produce.

EU proponents say the bloc urgently needs new partners to reduce its reliance on China, particularly for critical raw materials, and to insulate it from Trump tariffs. Last month, It struck a deal with South America’s Mercosur bloc.

“The modernized deal offers a renewed platform for coordination on future challenges – especially important given that the EU and Mexico are both in the crossfire of Trump’s tariff threats,” said Borja Gimenez Larraz, the European lawmaker overseeing the planned free trade agreement.

EU and Mexican negotiators reached an initial deal in 2018, and agreed in 2020 to grant reciprocal market access to each other’s tenders for public contracts.

However, a final agreement was delayed due to Mexico’s energy sector reform to give constitutional preference to state power generator CFE, which the Congress approved last year.

This removed potential benefits for EU energy companies and so revisions were agreed – reducing EU quotas for Mexican exports of beef, poultry and ethanol and adjusting local content rules to make it easier for the EU to export electric vehicles and batteries to Mexico than the other way around.

Practically all trade in goods will be duty-free, including for farm products such as Mexican chicken and asparagus and European milk powder, cheese and pork, albeit with some quotas.

The EU currently exports about 2 billion euros (C$2.97 billion) of agrifood products by year to Mexico, its second largest trading partner in Latin America. The EU is Mexico’s third-largest trading partner overall.

The agreement will allow Mexican companies to bid for government contracts in Europe and EU companies for those in Mexico, including at state level.

Mexico, which wants to reduce its reliance on the United States, has said the deal would grant it better access for products including orange juice, tuna, asparagus, honey, egg white albumin, as well as “equitable access” for meat products.

It is also set to recognize “geographical indications” for certain food and drink, a key EU demand, such as specifying that only cheese from Greece can be called Feta.

—Additional reporting by Kylie Madry in Mexico City

The post EU and Mexico revive stalled trade deal as Trump tariffs loom appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

When the Americans first attempted to impose mandatory country-of-origin labelling on cattle from Canada and Mexico to the U.S., Canadian cattle producers and provincial and federal counterparts lobbied hard to convince American politicians the mandatory rule would be detrimental to the American cattle industry.

But Dave Solverson, head of the Canadian Cattle Association from 2014 to 2016, said it wasn’t until they began making alliances with cattle-producing states, that they started to gain traction and convince American cattle producers the new rule would be more harmful than helpful.

“The coalitions we had and our work with the (National Cattlemen’s Beef Association) and state organizations really proved beneficial for both sides,” said Solverson.

“We really concentrated on producer-to-producer (discussions) and went to the state cattlemen meetings and talked about how important it was that they could top up their pens with a good group of Canadian cattle.”

• RELATED: Team Canada approach vital in U.S. relations
• RELATED: Canada needs to be ready for loose cannon trade politics

Nebraska and Iowa were the first states to recognize the importance of doing trade with Canada, especially eastern Canadian markets, he said.

“Fortunately, the relationship developed through country-of-origin discussions has continued. We have trilateral meetings three times a year with Mexican, American and Canadian cattlemen. That, of course, will continue and become very important.”

President-elect Trump’s threat to add a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods, including livestock, would devastate the livestock industry, said Solverson. Cattle markets would drop and Canadian cattle producer profits gained since the border closure 20 years ago would be lost.

Ken Solverson echoed his brother’s concerns. “If our demand shrinks because we are priced out of those markets, it has to affect our bottom line. The cattle cycle is really slow. We were almost where we are now in 2002 and we got smacked down with BSE and it has pretty much taken 20 years to get there again. It will be devastating if we miss another peak. The Americans never missed that last peak, but we did and we are just trying to get there again.”

Both Canadian and American beef herds are at 60-year lows, said Dave Solverson, which protects Canadian cattle producers right now. With so few cattle in the U.S., feedlots and packers need Canadian cattle and they may convince politicians of the need for the lower-priced Canadian cattle.

The post Canadian beef producers urged to lean into coalitions with U.S. producers to ward off Trump tariff threats appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

The Chinese government announced that it was launching an investigation into alleged canola dumping by Canada. This came about week after the Canadian government said it was hiking tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles by 100 per cent and increasing levies on steel and aluminum from China by 25 per cent.

“I thought there were going to be some pricing opportunities in canola until China knocked the pieces off of the board,” Jubinville commented, noting there had been a scenario unfolding that could have seen a tightening of canola supplies.

That included Canada’s canola harvest for this year coming in below the 19.5 million tonnes forecast by Statistics Canada on Aug. 28. Jubinville added the crop reports from the Prairie Provinces have said yields are coming in lighter than expected. In fact, he went as far as to project the harvest amounting to less than 19 million tonnes.

Jubinville said there had been some estimates that projected canola exports to China for 2024/25 at five million tonnes. That would be up a little from the 4.9 million this year, according to the latest Canadian Grain Commission data.

Any loss in sales to China, he suggested, could be redirected towards Japan and Mexico – Canada’s next two largest canola customers. As well as to the European Union, which is facing reduced rapeseed production due to unfavourable weather earlier this growing season.

The August world oilseed report from the United States Department of Agriculture estimated the EU’s rapeseed output for 2024/25 at 18.9 million tonnes, down from 20 million the previous year. Also, the USDA cut China’s rapeseed production to 15.6 million tonnes for this year from 16.3 million last year.

One element to this sudden canola conundrum in Canada Jubinville pointed out has been the reaction by the federal government. In particular, the feds paying lip service to canola growers, but no indication so far of any kind of financial support for them.

“You have sideswiped the ag industry. You’re protecting the auto industry at the expense of canola,” said Jubinville.

He explained that when Australia and China had a trade dispute over the former’s barley that it took about 18 months to resolve, with tariffs levied on any Australian barley imports.

“Ultimately I think this [canola] tariff is coming and it will take years to resolve,” Jubinville stated.

The post ICE Weekly: Canola market suddenly in a very bad position appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

Canada has followed the lead of the United States and European Union, and announced last week a 100 per cent tariff on imports of Chinese electric vehicles and a 25 per cent tariff on imported steel and aluminium from China.

“China strongly deplores and firmly opposes the discriminatory unilateral restrictive measures taken by Canada against its imports from China despite the opposition and dissuasion of many parties,” a commerce ministry spokesperson said in a statement.

The ministry said China will also initiate an anti-dumping investigation into some Canadian chemical products.

More than half of canola produced in Canada makes its way to China, the world’s biggest oilseed importer. Canola, also called rapeseed for certain variants, is used as a cooking oil and in a wide range of products including renewable fuels.

China’s rapeseed meal futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange CRSMcv1 jumped 6 per cent to 2,375 yuan ($333.56) per metric ton following the announcement, hitting its highest since Aug. 6.

• RELATED: ICE canola drops as China announces anti-dumping investigation

The ICE canola contract for November delivery RSX4 dropped to its daily limit of $45, or 7 per cent, to $569.7 per metric ton.

“Canada’s canola exports to China have increased significantly and are suspected of dumping, reaching US$3.47 billion in 2023, with a 170 per cent year-on-year increase in volume and a continuous decline in prices,” the ministry said.

“Affected by the unfair competition of the Canadian side, China’s domestic rapeseed-related industries continued to suffer losses,” it said.

China’s rapeseed meal prices have plunged 22 per cent so far this year amid abundant oilseed supply and rising domestic production.

“The current (edible oil) domestic consumption is not strong, and there is an abundant supply of domestic stocks,” said Ma Wenfeng, senior analyst at Beijing-based agriculture consultancy Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultancy.

China imports its canola predominantly from Canada, followed by Russia and Mongolia.

“Arrivals from Canada have been growing at a fast rate,” Ma said.

The world’s second largest economy imported 5.5 million tons of canola in 2023, valued at $3.72 billion. Imports from Canada accounted for 94 per cent of the total.

Comparatively, the bulk of China’s electric vehicle exports to Canada is from Tesla’s Shanghai factory and local Chinese firms have no big exposure to that export market yet.

Canadian imports of automobiles from China to its largest port, Vancouver, jumped 460 per cent year over year to 44,356 in 2023, when Tesla started shipping Shanghai-made EVs to Canada.

The Chinese spokesperson said it intends to resort to the World Trade Organization dispute settlement mechanism for Canada’s relevant practices.

The Canadian embassy in Beijing did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

China has also initiated trade investigations on imports of pork, brandy and dairy from the European Union in response to curbs on its electric vehicle exports.

Alternative supplies

China had targeted Canadian canola in previous trade tensions. In 2019, it suspended two Canadian canola exporters before removing the restrictions three years later.

Analysts said China could turn to Australia and Ukraine for alternative supplies, especially as Australia’s canola production is ample.

Canola production in Europe has been hit by poor weather while China’s agriculture trade with Ukraine is limited.

“We expect China to buy larger volumes from Australia if restrictions on Australian canola are eased,” said Ole Houe, director of advisory services at IKON Commodities in Sydney.

“As of now Australia’s canola exports to China are negligible, just about 500 tons since the beginning of 2024,” Houe said.

China’s imports of Australian canola have been restricted due to concerns about blackleg disease.

($1 = 7.1201 Chinese yuan renminbi)

– Reporting by Mei Mei Chu, Naveen Thukral and the Beijing newsroom.

The post China hits Canada with anti-dumping probe on canola imports in response to EV tariffs appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.

Chinese firms have asked for an anti-dumping probe into pork imports from the European Union, state-backed Chinese media reported on Friday, escalating tensions after the bloc imposed anti-subsidy duties on Chinese-made electric vehicles.

China imported $6 billion worth of pork, including offal, in 2023 and more than half came from the EU, Chinese customs data showed. Ending those orders would result in a huge loss of business for Europe’s meat industry.

“The full suspension of EU pork exports to China would be a potential nightmare scenario for the pork supply chain, with implications across the EU,” said Justin Sherrard, global strategist animal protein at Rabobank.

Sherrard added that the disruption would be felt across pork supply chains in Europe, resulting in lower prices and profit margins on unwanted stock produced by the region’s farmers.

China buys pig meat including ears, noses and feet, for which there is little demand from European customers. The ability to export those parts of the animal helps generate a higher value for the whole carcass, analysts say.

“It would take time, but may be possible for EU exporters to find alternative markets for the pork muscle meat cuts that are currently shipped to China,” Sherrard said. “However, I doubt alternative markets could be found for EU pork ‘variety meat’ exports that are currently shipped to China.

‘Painful’

Germany’s pork industry has already suffered an import ban by China since 2020 after the disease swine fever was found in Germany.

Its largest meat processor Toennies expects pork prices to fall if exporters such as Spain seek new markets for lost Chinese sales resulting in a “painful loss of income”.

“If EU exporters, particularly Spain, cannot sell pork to China, some sales would have to be made within Europe and downward pressure on EU pork prices can be expected,” said Toennies spokesperson Thomas Dosch.

After finding themselves unable to sell pork to China following the swine fever ban, Germany’s pork producers sought alternative uses for unwanted pig parts including as ingredients in sausages, pet food and industrial fats.

“While alternative uses can be found, they are not as profitable as selling directly to China,” said Dosch.

South America could benefit if China seeks alternative supplies, experts say.

“This would especially be expected to involve extra sales from Brazil to China, which has been expanding its export capability in past years,” said Tim Koch, meat analyst at German market consultancy AMI.

Top pork exporters to China (graphic)

The post EU pork industry faces ‘nightmare’ if China restricts imports appeared first on Canadian Cattlemen.