StatCan issued its first model-based production report for 2023-24 on Aug. 29, which placed the country’s oats at about 2.429 million tonnes. While the first report estimated the crops as of July 31, the second report will take them as of Aug. 31.

He suggested the agency’s previous estimate for harvested acres, at 828,800, is likely a little high. Also, any increase in production would still produce a crop well short of last year’s 5.227 million tonnes.

“We know there was a very large carryout and demand has been good,” Shiels said.

StatCan last Friday (Sept. 8) issued a stocks report which placed oat ending stocks for 2022-23 at 1.275 million tonnes — far more than the 333,000 the year prior and above the five-year average of 518,000.

“They’re probably fairly accurate on stocks — I think a lot more accurate than they are on their acres at this point,” Shiels said.

Grain Millers is offering $6 per bushel for oats in the April to August time frame, he said.

Meanwhile, for current-year oats, Prairie Ag Hotwire listed them in Manitoba at $5-$5.14/bu. delivered, down 18 cents over the last month. Those in Alberta fetched $4.30-$5.01/bu., dropping 40 cents over the same time.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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“Last year was a tough year for Canadian farmers for all crops, with quinoa no exception. This year is looking a lot more positive. We seem to have missed the hot season as seeding came at the right time,” he said, noting this fall’s yields are around 1,100 pounds per acre, which is about average.

He said the majority of the quinoa in Canada is grown in Saskatchewan, primarily north of Highway 16; some is also grown in southern Manitoba and northern Alberta, plus some in the latter province’s south under irrigation.

Prices for quinoa have held up, remaining about the same from 2021-22, Dutcheshen said, noting that quinoa prices in South America are currently high.

“That’s kind of working in our favour, so we are able to maintain last year’s price, which is a little higher than in previous years,” he added, but declined to cite Norquin’s contract price.

An ancient grain from South America, quinoa generally prefers a cooler climate but has a low tolerance for frost.

As more Canadian farmers try growing quinoa, companies such as NorQuin not only market it domestically but also export it to the U.S., Mexico, Europe, Australia, Korea, Japan, and South America.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg; includes files from Treena Hein of Glacier FarmMedia.

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In the department’s WASDE report, the estimated average yield for corn was revised downward from the month before by only 1.6 bushels per acre to 175.4. Meanwhile, the estimated average yield for soybeans was 51.9 bu./ac., up 0.4 from July. Analysts had previously expected larger drops in average yields for both crops as well as for wheat.

Ryan Ettner, a commodity broker for Allendale Inc. in McHenry, Ill., said that the trade assumed before the weekend that yields would be lower. However, the report, in addition to limited weather risks in the forecast, caused a shifting of gears.

“The report for corn and (soybeans) on (Friday) were nowhere near supportive as the price level you saw because I think trade was already assuming, ‘Forget these yield numbers. They’ll go down quite a lot more in (the September report),’” Ettner said. “Then we came back from the weekend and the forecast maps took away any risk of temperature or dryness.”

Ettner believes that the weather market is coming to an end, just as crop tours begin next week. Next month’s USDA supply/demand estimates will be the first of the crop year to depend on data taken from the fields themselves.

“Instead of getting rains and missing rains on the forecast and seeing if they fall and if they’ll help the crop, we’ll actually be out in the field and measure what we really do have out there,” he said. “Once you start doing that, your focus starts to turn away from weather.”

After the crop tours, traders’ focus will then turn to crop exports, which are expected to rise later this month, and then finally crop yields, according to Ettner.

“Beans would be (the No. 1 focus) for two reasons. Weather still affects the beans more than corn and wheat by far. When crop tours start next week, (the focus) flips over to corn because you can measure kernels with all the people in the fields actually scouting. You can count kernels; you can count ears; you can get a fairly decent estimate on corn.”

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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The average oil content came in at only 41.3 per cent for the year, which compares with 44.1 per cent the previous year and the five-year average of 44.4 per cent. The oil content marked the lowest level in data going back to 2000, with the next lowest at 41.8 per cent in 2003.

With oil content down, protein levels were up on the year. The average crude protein for No. 1 canola came in at 24 per cent, well above the 20.8 per cent reported the previous year and the five-year average of 20.5 per cent.

“Research has shown that there is a strong inverse relationship between oil content and protein content in canola seeds,” the CGC said.

Warm and dry conditions across the Prairies “were ideal to produce a poor yield for western Canadian canola,” the CGC said in the report. Total production came in at 12.645 million tonnes, according to Statistics Canada, down by 7.64 million from the five-year average.

The overall quality of what was grown was high, with 90.6 per cent of the samples studied grading No. 1. That was up slightly from 90.5 per cent in 2020 and compares with the five-year average of 88.1 per cent.

The best quality crops were seen in Saskatchewan, where 94.3 per cent of the crop reached No. 1. Meanwhile, only 84.2 per cent of samples from the Peace River region of northern Alberta graded as No. 1.

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Western Canadian rye, however, was largely left unscathed, which may bode well for the crop heading into 2022.

Rye production came in at 473,000 tonnes for 2021-22, according to Statistics Canada — a 3.1 per cent decrease from the previous year. Out of all the crops grown in the country, only rye, corn and mixed grains saw higher average yields than the year before.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) forecast rye production to be 470,000 tonnes in 2022-23 with 593,000 acres seeded, similar numbers to the previous year.

Greg Stamp, seed sales manager for Stamp Seeds at Enchant, Alta., called rye “the best crop to grow in a dry environment.”

Stamp saw strong sales for the cover crop last summer, especially after rains in late August and early September in southern Alberta. As feed grain prices rose, so did the demand for rye from Alberta feedlots.

“On our dry land, durum was nine bushels per acre. Traditional fall rye was 25 bu./acre versus a very poor wheat crop,” he said. “If you don’t have that spike in the durum market, that rye crop definitely would’ve been looking pretty good. If there would’ve been a hybrid rye, we would have seen even higher yields.”

While heavy snow cover has helped moisture conditions improve in the parts of Prairies over the winter, much of Alberta and Saskatchewan remained in a state of severe to extreme drought as of Feb. 28, according to the Canadian Drought Monitor.

The high-delivered bid for rye across the Prairies was $9.30 per bushel as of Friday — $2.80 higher than last year, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire.

Rye grows well in situations where spring precipitation gives way to a dry summer, Stamp added, citing last year as an example — and the crop can act as a weed deterrent.

Rye will also allow growers to start their harvest, and in turn their cash flow, earlier if the weather co-operates, he said.

“Net returns are key because you have something that can tolerate the drought. Right now, with that feed market pretty strong, even if it softens a little bit, it’s still going to be pretty competitive with all the crops that are hitting the feed market,” Stamp said.

Nathan Penner, a Manitoba-based commercialization manager for Regina’s FP Genetics, extolled the flexibility of hybrid fall rye for its uses as feed, greenfeed, silage and for grazing.

The company has been selling hybrid rye varieties since 2014 and the ones growers want depend on what they plan to use rye for.

“These hybrids are more efficient in terms of water and nitrogen use, which is very important especially in these drought years. We’ve seen that they’ve shown they’re pretty resilient in dry years to produce. We had fields where the rye was going 60 bu./ac. and their wheat was going 40 or less,” Penner explained. He believes sales will be stronger this year.

“I think what a lot of rye growers are looking for is, because it’s a fall-seeded crop, it fits into their crop rotation differently than their annual species… Overall, it’s a relatively inexpensive crop to grow, but it still yields well and has profitability on the farm.”

As for how this year’s crop will go, at least in southern Alberta, Stamp is uncertain due to the area’s dryness over the past few months.

“It’s all up to the weather. Any crop is going to need a little bit of help from Mother Nature,” he said. “Rainfalls and early spring snows, because it’s extremely dry.”

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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Canada’s lentil crop was reduced by 37.2 per cent to 1.802 million tonnes for the 2021-22 marketing year, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) principal crop estimates from Friday. The total represents Canada’s lowest lentil yield since 2012-13 (1.538 million), and the drought did not discriminate by certain kinds.

“In general, the whole crop was smaller,” said Marcos Mosnaim of Export Packers at Brampton, Ont.

Nearly all lentil prices in Western Canada are steady to 10 cents/lb. lower over the past month, with the only exception being two types of Richlea lentils, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. However, prices over the past year have risen by between 15 and 55 cents/lb.

Mosnaim believes lentil producers covered short positions, pushing prices up and causing overseas markets to take a pass on purchasing higher-priced shipments.

“Destination markets never really accepted these higher prices. Although some trade happened…destination (markets) has been struggling (to buy) these lentils (at these levels),” he said.

“When you start seeing prices coming down, it’s because…when the price of the farmer doesn’t work at destination, you don’t buy. Nobody’s betting against the farmer and that’s making the market (stay put).”

Canadian lentil exports will be less than 2020-21’s totals, but the decline will not match the drop in production. AAFC estimated that 1.9 million tonnes of lentils will be exported in 2021-22, 18.3 per cent less than the previous year (2.326 million).

But despite a decrease in domestic usage, ending stocks are projected to be 50,000 tonnes, less than one-eighth of the 406,000 tonnes in 2020-21. However, Mosnaim insists Canada won’t need to import large quantities of lentils to increase supply.

“I’ll guess prices will stay stable until probably the New Year. It may come down a bit,” he said. “It will all depend on the farmers. Farmers will need money and they’ll need to sell…We’ll have to wait until January/February.”

Statistics Canada will release its next principal field crop report on Dec. 3.

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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“As well as everything else we had some areas that had a little bit of moisture and crops are looking OK. In areas where wheat and canola struggled, quinoa struggled a little bit,” O’Halloran said.

This year’s harvest is most likely to start in about seven to 10 days, he added, with only a handful of producers already in the fields.

“Visual inspections of fields [show] there are definitely some fields that struggled with the drought,” he said.

He estimated about 12,500 acres of quinoa were grown in Canada last year, which provided yields of 1,100 to 1,200 lbs. per acre.

Price-wise, he said NorQuin was presently drawing up contracts for the coming season and declined to cite any prices.

“We’re looking at the global price of quinoa and what the markets are doing,” he said, noting South American production is a big driver.

Globally, Peru grows the majority of the world’s quinoa, with its 2020 crop estimated to be around 98,000 tonnes, followed by Bolivia at about 73,000 tonnes, according to IndexBox.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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Now, a few days after USDA’s supply and demand estimates, Statistics Canada is already set to update its Aug. 30 report. The federal agency on Tuesday will issue its next principal field crops report, which will rely on satellite imagery.

“That vegetative picture is not looking as prominent and will have some impact trending lower,” MarketsFarm Pro analyst Mike Jubinville said.

“If you take the yield analysis of both Saskatchewan and Alberta crop reports did last week, [production] should be under 12 million tonnes.”

Alberta said its canola yields were about 26 bushels per acre after 13 per cent of the province’s crop had been combined. With 31 per cent of Saskatchewan’s canola in the bin, its agriculture department placed yields at 20 bu/ac.

The key is choosing between what should be the correct estimate versus what Statistics Canada is likely to report, of which Jubinville suggested the federal agency could peg canola in the lower 13 million-tonne range.

“They may eventually get there, but I don’t know if they’re going to do it tomorrow,” he said.

Nevertheless it has become a sharp turnaround for canola production in Canada. Projections at one point earlier this year called for just over 20 million tonnes, somewhat above the 2020-21 crop of almost 19.5 million tonnes.

Severe drought and intense heat across the Prairies resulted in canola, as well as other crops, maturing quickly and not getting enough time to generate a sufficient number of seeds.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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POGA directors from across the region who participated in a recent board meeting had a rather grim outlook on the coming harvest, she said.

“Not a single one thought they would have an average crop this year. I’m hearing reports that most people are expecting to be down 25 to 50 per cent in yields this year” — which may lead to record-low ending stocks, she said.

The latter was cited in the July supply and demand estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) this week. The department maintained its carryover forecast at 300,000 tonnes from the previous month out of a total supply of 4.21 million tonnes.

Also, AAFC chopped nearly 10 per cent off its June estimate for oat production, at 3.79 million tonnes. Compared to the 2020-21 crop, that would be a drop of just over 17 per cent.

Mathieson acknowledged there have yet to be any concrete estimates at this point in the year, but producers have taken a close look at their struggling crops. Any significant rain that was to come likely wouldn’t be of too much benefit, she said.

As for prices, she said Manitoba oats were at $4.50 per bushel for harvest delivery, while Saskatchewan was at about $4/bu., with Alberta somewhere in the middle.

“If yields are down 25 to 50 per cent, then that’s still going to be a big hit on farms, even if you do get $4.50-$5/bu.,” Mathieson said.

She pointed to Manitoba prices last year, from which growers received about $3.50/bu., and stressed the increase in prices wouldn’t make up for the sharp drop in yields.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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“That was a very rough week,” said Walter Dyck, the Alberta-based general manager with Wisconsin mustard-processor Olds Products, on the late June/early July heat wave that hit much of Western Canada. “It couldn’t have happened at a worse time.”

While there could still be some surprises at harvest time, Dyck expected yields would at best be at the low end of average this year. Plants were smaller to begin with due to a lack of subsoil moisture and wind early on.

In addition, total acres were relatively small, which “all adds up to a pretty bullish situation,” according to Dyck.

Mustard plants that might usually have eight to 10 seeds in a pod were only getting four to six this year, he said. While timely rains could still help fill those seeds, the overall damage has already been done.

Canadian farmers seeded 305,500 acres of mustard this spring, according to Statistics Canada data. While that would be up by about 50,000 acres from the previous year, it still represents one of the five-smallest acreage bases to the crop of the past four decades and comes in about 100,000 acres below the five-year average (2016-2020).

Prices are higher already, with bids for both old and new crop yellow mustard topping out at 50 cents/lb., according to Prairie Ag Hotwire data.

Dyck noted there wasn’t much unpriced mustard out there, with much of it tied to contracts — but added that there were still growers sitting on sizeable stocks that would be looking to market this year.

“It will be one of those years where the spot price moves higher,” he said, adding “there’s not enough mustard coming from Canada to meet the demand.”

As far as that demand goes, the easing of pandemic restrictions across North America should lead to increased mustard demand from restaurants, ball parks and other food services.

However, grocery uptake was significant in 2020, and that might go down a bit this year, keeping the overall demand relatively stable.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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