MarketsFarm — Barely two weeks after Statistics Canada projected 2021-22 canola production to come in around 14.7 million tonnes, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast the Canadian oilseed crop to be about 14 million tonnes.
Now, a few days after USDA’s supply and demand estimates, Statistics Canada is already set to update its Aug. 30 report. The federal agency on Tuesday will issue its next principal field crops report, which will rely on satellite imagery.
“That vegetative picture is not looking as prominent and will have some impact trending lower,” MarketsFarm Pro analyst Mike Jubinville said.
“If you take the yield analysis of both Saskatchewan and Alberta crop reports did last week, [production] should be under 12 million tonnes.”
Alberta said its canola yields were about 26 bushels per acre after 13 per cent of the province’s crop had been combined. With 31 per cent of Saskatchewan’s canola in the bin, its agriculture department placed yields at 20 bu/ac.
The key is choosing between what should be the correct estimate versus what Statistics Canada is likely to report, of which Jubinville suggested the federal agency could peg canola in the lower 13 million-tonne range.
“They may eventually get there, but I don’t know if they’re going to do it tomorrow,” he said.
Nevertheless it has become a sharp turnaround for canola production in Canada. Projections at one point earlier this year called for just over 20 million tonnes, somewhat above the 2020-21 crop of almost 19.5 million tonnes.
Severe drought and intense heat across the Prairies resulted in canola, as well as other crops, maturing quickly and not getting enough time to generate a sufficient number of seeds.
— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.