Sao Paulo | Reuters — Brazilian meatpacker JBS is prepared for a likely shift in the country’s cattle cycle that could lead to reduced availability of animals for slaughter next year, an executive said on Wednesday.
“The imminence of the cattle cycle shift brings challenges. We are preparing through partnerships, contracts, and close relationships with ranchers to preserve our volumes,” Eduardo Pedroso, executive director of origination at Friboi JBS, told reporters at an event in Sao Paulo.
Why it matters: JBS is the world’s largest meat producer and Brazil is the top beef exporter. A decrease in cattle supply would come at a time when other meat producing nations, including the United States, face similar shortages.
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Brazil has experienced a significant increase in cattle slaughter over the past 24 months due to oversupply, which allowed for higher processing rates in the country’s meat industry. However, signs now point to reduced supply next year.
According to consultancy Datagro, cattle slaughter in the country is expected to drop more than nine per cent in 2026 from this year, reaching 37.1 million animals, after estimated jumps of more than 16 per cent between 2023 and 2024 and three per cent from 2024 to 2025.
“With crop-livestock integration, tech adoption, earlier slaughter age, and productivity gains, cycle impacts can be softened. That’s what we expect,” Pedroso said.
Exports to U.S. expected to fall
Brazil’s beef exports to the United States are expected to falling further in September from the previous months, the head of local beef lobby Abiec said on Wednesday, in a move linked to higher tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on goods from Brazil.
“The loss of our second-largest market makes a difference,” Robert Perosa said at an event hosted by consultancy firm Datagro. “But surprisingly, even with the 76.4 per cent tariff, there are still exports to the U.S. because of the competitiveness we have gained.”
Perosa said that beef exports to the U.S. should fall to about 7,000 metric tons in September, from around 9,000 tons in August and 30,000 tons per month in the period preceding the tariffs, which came into force in August.
The U.S. used to be the second-largest buyer of beef from Brazil. That changed last month, when Mexico took over the position after Trump imposed a 50 per cent levy on U.S. imports of several Brazilian goods.
The fresh duties added to a 26.4 per cent import tax faced by Brazilian beef that was shipped outside a previously established quota.
