Statistics Canada released its crush report on Aug. 29, showing an increase in the amount of canola that was processed last month compared to the previous July. As for soybeans, its crush was significantly lower.
Canola prices at the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) were on the rise for most of the week ended Aug. 28, until the release of Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) production estimates for the 2024-25 crop year on Aug. 28.
Statistics Canada’s production estimates in its principal field crops report issued Aug. 28, came in better than expected according to MarketsFarm analyst Mike Jubinville. While Jubinville thought StatCan might peg the 2024/25 canola crop at around 20 million tonnes, the federal agency placed their call at 19.50 million, while a poll by Reuters expected 19.20 million.
Manitoba Agriculture said the provincewide harvest was at eight per cent complete, according to the department’s latest crop report released on Aug. 27.
There appears to be very little credibility that will be given to Statistics Canada’s principal field crop report to be issued on Wednesday. The concerns among analysts and brokers include the timing of the report and the use of satellite imagery.
Some people are wondering if canola could once again be in China’s crosshairs if the country retaliates against a series of new punitive tariffs announced by Canada on Monday.
Harvest progress for major crops in Alberta more than tripled during the week ended Aug. 20 while heavy rains hit northern and central parts of the province.
More than 1,600 Prairie farms were hit by hail between July 29 and August 11, with the heaviest damage in Alberta, according to the Canadian Crop Hail Association (CCHC).
Saskatchewan reported 15 per cent of its harvest was complete, compared to 21 per cent at this time last year, but higher than the five-year average of 13 per cent and the 10-year average of 11 per cent. In the southwest region, 29 per cent of its harvest was complete while the northwest region was only at one per cent complete.
There is skepticism in the trade towards the latest numbers from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and those to come from Statistics Canada on Aug. 28, according to broker Ken Ball of Ventum Financial in Winnipeg.