Although canola futures on the International Exchange have lost a fair bit of value over the last several weeks, there is a case to be made that the Canadian oilseed is rangebound.
Changes varied in the amount of oilseeds crushed and grains delivered in Canada during the month of May compared to one year ago, according to Statistics Canada (StatCan).
It will be the second survey-based acreage report for 2024-25 from StatCan after the first was released in March. Since then, much of the Prairies received normal to above-normal amounts of precipitation while cooler temperatures have delayed development in most crops.
Bearish bets in the ICE Futures canola market hit their highest level in three months in mid-June, as speculative fund traders added to their large net short position, according to the latest Commitments of Traders report from the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Crop conditions across the province were rated at 72.9 per cent good to excellent, better than the five-year average of 68.8 per cent and the 10-year average of 70.2 per cent. The central region had the best rating at 78.2 per cent, followed by the Peace region at 75.7 per cent and the south region at 73.9 per cent, all above both historical averages. The northeast region was at 70 per cent, below its averages, while the northwest was in line with its average at 61.8 per cent.
Canadian wheat exports in both the current crop year and the upcoming 2024/25 marketing year will likely end up above earlier expectations, according to updated supply/demand estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), released June 20, that left the balance sheet for canola relatively unchanged.
Bruce Coulman, Michael Eskin, Paul Larmer and Charles Vincent will be formally inducted on November 2 at a ceremony during the Royal Agricultural Winter Fair in Toronto.
Canola across most of the Prairies appeared to be in good shape during the second last week of June, with very little prospect of a major rally according to a trader.
As of June 11, 2024, the net managed money short position in canola futures came in at 99,252 contracts (1,950 long/101,202 short), which was up by roughly 30,000 contracts from the previous week.