Improved prospects for the worldwide wheat crop are a drag on the Canadian Wheat Board’s 2008-09 pool return outlook (PRO) for Prairie wheat.
The April PROs — the board’s monthly estimates of crop year returns from its wheat and barley pools — have dropped across the board for 2008-09 milling wheat, the board reported Thursday.
Canada Western soft white spring (CWSWS) grades fall $18 per tonne (to $311 for No. 1 CWSWS), while No. 4 Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS) drops $20 per tonne to $318. Most other grades have dropped $25 per tonne off their March PROs, with No. 1 CWRS 14.5 now at $372. CW Feed wheat remained at $249 per tonne.
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Milling durum PROs all shed $20 per tonne, with No. 1 Canada Western Amber Durum (CWAD) 14.5 dropping to $443 per tonne and No. 4 CWAD to $379 per tonne. No. 5 CWAD, however, also remained flat at $249.
No. 1 CW feed barley (Pool A) also remained flat at $235 per tonne, while the PROs for designated barley fell $6 per tonne from their March levels. Select CW two-row now sits at $354 per tonne, and six-row at $334.
The board noted that winter wheat crops in the U.S. and Black Sea regions have received timely rains, improving production prospects in those areas, while spring wheat area in Canada and the U.S. is expected to increase this spring by nine and eight per cent, respectively.
Statistics Canada and the U.S. Department of Agriculture also forecast durum acres in Canada and the U.S. to increase by 22.5 and 22 per cent, respectively.
New-crop feed barley values are expected to be pressured by increased supplies worldwide in 2008-09, particularly in the EU and Black Sea regions, although tight supplies of corn for feed are expected to provide some price support for feed barley.
Low stocks of available malting barley, as well as strong demand from the U.S. and other importers, are expected to continue to support malting barley prices, the CWB said. Offsetting those supports, however, Chinese demand appears weaker than expected and increased supplies from Europe and Australia are expected in the coming year.
2007-08 feed barley
The CWB on Thursday also released its April PRO for 2007-08 feed barley (pool B). It remains flat at the March level of $275 per tonne, due to the “advanced nature” of Pool B sales and improved prospects for new-crop feed barley, the CWB said.
