Global wheat production rises, corn drops

IGC sees only slight changes in soy crop

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Published: September 22, 2022

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One Canada Square (tower at centre) houses the London head office of the International Grains Council. (Iliffd/iStock/Getty Images)

MarketsFarm — The International Grains Council (IGC) in London raised its estimate of total world grain production for 2022-23 from its August report, with most of the increases coming in wheat.

Overall, the IGC projected total production to reach 2.256 billion tonnes, adding eight million from last month. Most of that came from higher harvest forecasts for Australia, Canada and Russia, but was offset by less corn output in the U.S.

Despite trade and consumption estimates remaining unchanged, the IGC upped the total global carryover by 10 million tonnes bringing it to 587 million.

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USDA adjusts supply/demand estimates

Corn and soybean yields in the United States were left unchanged in the latest supply/demand estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, released July 11, although a reduction in harvested area led to small downward revisions to production for the crops.

The council also raised global wheat production for 2022-23 by 14 million tonnes from August, bringing its call to 792 million tonnes. Despite trade and consumption remaining relatively steady, there was an 11 million-tonne increase in the carryover, which now stands at 286 million tonnes.

World corn production was lowered by 11 million tonnes, which the IGC now puts at 1.168 billion for 2022-23. The council trimmed one million tonnes from trade and six million off its call on consumption. However, at 262 million tonnes, it cut world corn ending stocks by three million.

Soybeans witnessed only slight changes as the IGC lowered global production by two million tonnes at 387 million, balanced off by more output in South America and the Black Sea region and less coming off of U.S. fields. Trade and consumption held firm with the carryover nudged up one million tonnes at 53 million.

Table: International Grains Council world grain production estimates in millions of metric tonnes.

Total 2020-21.    . 2021-22 Aug. ’22 Sept. ’22
Production 2,226 2,291 2,248 2,256
Consumption.   . 2,239 2,289 2,274 2,274
Carryover 603 606 577 587
Wheat 2020-21 2021-22.   . Aug. ’22 Sept. ’22
Production 773 782 778 792
Trade 190 197 193 193
Consumption 770 781 783 785
Carryover 278 279 275 286
Corn 2020-21 2021-22 Aug. ’22.   . Sept. ’22
Production 1,136 1,219 1,179 1,168
Trade 188 179 173 172
Consumption 1,155 1,213 1,197 1,191
Carryover 279 285 265 262
Soybeans 2020-21 2021-22 Aug. ’22 Sept. ’22
Production 369 352 389 387
Trade 159 155 166 165
Consumption 369 363 379 378
Carryover 55 44 52 53

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