Huge increase predicted in canola ending stocks

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Published: May 21, 2019

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MarketsFarm — Canadian canola carryout stocks are forecast to rise to a record 5.3 million tonnes by the end of the 2019-20 marketing year, more than doubling the previous five-year average, according to updated estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s market analysis division.

While the department, in its estimates, expects total canola production to decline to 18.9 million tonnes in 2019-20, from 20.343 million in the current marketing year, it also forecasts a sharp reduction in exports.

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Citing the trade dispute with China, AAFC said there was a “high degree of uncertainty” to the export forecast. Total canola exports for 2019-20 are forecast at only 8.000 million tonnes, which compares with an estimated 9.300 million in the current marketing year and 10.726 million in 2017-18.

Canola ending stocks for 2018-19 are forecast at 3.9 million tonnes, which compares with an earlier estimate of 3.5 million. That would mark the new record on its own, and compares with the previous five-year average of 2.303 million tonnes.

Total wheat ending stocks for 2019-20 are also expected to be large, at an estimated 7.1 million tonnes. That compares with an estimated 5.8 million tonnes for 2018-19.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

(Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada)

About the author

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Editor - Daily News

Phil Franz-Warkentin grew up on an acreage in southern Manitoba and has reported on agriculture for over 20 years. Based in Winnipeg, his writing has appeared in publications across Canada and internationally. Phil is a trusted voice on the Prairie radio waves providing daily futures market updates. In his spare time, Phil enjoys playing music and making art.

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