MarketsFarm — Canadian canola carryout stocks are forecast to rise to a record 5.3 million tonnes by the end of the 2019-20 marketing year, more than doubling the previous five-year average, according to updated estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s market analysis division.
While the department, in its estimates, expects total canola production to decline to 18.9 million tonnes in 2019-20, from 20.343 million in the current marketing year, it also forecasts a sharp reduction in exports.
Read Also
Feed Grains Weekly: Price likely to keep stepping back
As the harvest in southern Alberta presses on, a broker said that is one of the factors pulling feed prices lower in the region. Darcy Haley, vice-president of Ag Value Brokers in Lethbridge, added that lower cattle numbers in feedlots, plentiful amounts of grass for cattle to graze and a lacklustre export market also weighed on feed prices.
Citing the trade dispute with China, AAFC said there was a “high degree of uncertainty” to the export forecast. Total canola exports for 2019-20 are forecast at only 8.000 million tonnes, which compares with an estimated 9.300 million in the current marketing year and 10.726 million in 2017-18.
Canola ending stocks for 2018-19 are forecast at 3.9 million tonnes, which compares with an earlier estimate of 3.5 million. That would mark the new record on its own, and compares with the previous five-year average of 2.303 million tonnes.
Total wheat ending stocks for 2019-20 are also expected to be large, at an estimated 7.1 million tonnes. That compares with an estimated 5.8 million tonnes for 2018-19.
— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.
