Glacier FarmMedia — Look for November canola to slip below C$600 per tonne by the end of Thanksgiving week, said Phil Speiss, trader with RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg.
Despite canola adding some gains during the week of Oct. 6, Speiss said there’s little within Canadian oilseed’s fundamentals to keep it going much higher. He said that was made clear recently when canola failed to break above C$619/tonne, “faltering back a little bit.”
Speiss said gains in Chicago soyoil have spilled over to prop up canola, as have increases in other vegetable oils, such as European rapeseed. He noted wet and dry conditions in different parts of Europe has slowed the planting of rapeseed, which have pushed up that oilseed’s prices.
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Logistical problems for crushers
But on the Prairies, there’s a more pressing issue that’s weighing on canola prices.
“We’re seeing crushers pushing away trucks,” Speiss said. “They can’t get railcars.”
That has made it difficult for crushers to move out their product.
“This is the impact of what a monster Prairie harvest can do. It can really bog down your logistics,” Speiss said.
Added to that, there have been lackluster canola exports so far in 2025/26. The Canadian Grain Commission reported those outbound shipments are only 716,000 tonnes, about one million tonnes less than a year ago.
Conversely, the CGC reported the domestic use of canola, at 1.86 million tonnes, was almost one million ahead of this time last year.
Before canola’s November contract slips below C$600/tonne, Speiss said there will likely be some short covering to help prop it up.
