https://marketsfarm.com/ice-canada-weekly-pressure-on-canola-is-coming/
Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — As canola futures find some ground on the Intercontinental Exchange during the week ended Sept. 24, the Canadian oilseed’s path will soon be a steady decline. That’s the assessment from Tony Tryhuk, trader with RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg.
Farmer selling
“At the end of the day, it’s the farmer movement that’s going to be the determining factor as to where prices go,” Tryhuk said.
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He explained that farmer selling and producer deliveries have been lower than normal at this time of the year, because the Prairie canola harvest has been slower than normal.
“Once that farmer pressure comes in, the trucks start to move into the elevator system, and the commercials have to start doing some hedging, then you can see a realignment of the supply-demand to the point where supply exceeds demand,” Tryhuk said.
The latest numbers from the Canadian Grain Commission bared that out, with cumulative producer deliveries of canola at 1.36 million tonnes as of Sept. 14, versus 2.07 million a year ago.
China
Tryhuk also pointed to the China situation, which has yet to be resolved, which he doubts will be rectified by the end of 2025.
China continued to enforce its 75.6 per cent tariff on imports of Canadian canola seed along with 100 per cent levies on the oil and the meal.
However, some hope was injected into the canola market as reports said Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney engaged in some “hallway diplomacy” with Chinese Premier Li Qiang at the United Nations on Sept. 23. Their chat included a number for trade items, including canola, and an eventual meeting between Carney and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Canola production
Then there’s the canola harvest itself, Tryhuk noted.
“Almost every person with knowledge in the trade is saying the crop is above 21 million tonnes,” he said.
Last week, Statistics Canada issued its September production update, in which it raised its call on the 2025/25 canola harvest to 20.03 million tonnes from 19.94 million in August. StatCan will issue another update come December.
