MarketsFarm — Canola contracts on the ICE Futures platform held relatively rangebound during the week ended Wednesday, trading within a $20 per tonne range in most months as market participants wait to get a better handle on new-crop prospects.
“There’s some concern developing on seeding delays,” said Jamie Wilton of RJ O’Brien in Winnipeg, adding that soils across Western Canada need to warm up to allow farmers to get onto their fields and “it’s a little chilly out there still.”
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Fund positioning has been a feature propping up the front months, as speculators cover short positions, but Wilton expected that activity would take a backseat to North American weather conditions.
“I think from now forward it will be mostly weather that dictates the moves (in canola futures,” according to Wilton.
While Manitoba and Saskatchewan were both being hit by snow on Wednesday which will add to any seeding delays, Wilton expected seeding would get going quickly in Alberta. However, the dryness there comes with its own problems.
Looking ahead, Statistics Canada releases its latest acreage estimates on April 26 and Wilton wasn’t expecting any major shifts in area on the year unless weather issues persist.
— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.
