Pulse weekly outlook: Tightening Canadian lentil stocks expected

Pea ending stocks more comfortable

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Published: December 20, 2022

, ,

Lentils. (Seb_ra/iStock/Getty Images)

MarketsFarm — Carryout stocks of Canadian lentils could tighten to their smallest level in seven years by the end of the current 2022-23 marketing year, according to updated supply/demand estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

While lentil production of 2.3 million tonnes was up by 44 per cent from the drought-stricken 2021-22 crop, expectations for increased export demand are forecasted to lead the carryout to tighten to only 100,000 tonnes. That would be down from 224,000 tonnes on July 31, 2022, and well-off the five-year average of 520,000 tonnes.

Read Also

Photo: Getty Images Plus

Alberta crop conditions improve: report

Varied precipitation and warm temperatures were generally beneficial for crop development across Alberta during the week ended July 8, according to the latest provincial crop report released July 11.

The stocks-to-use ratio for lentils is forecast at only four per cent, which compares with 12 per cent last year and only slightly above the three per cent stocks-to-use seen in 2015-16 when lentil ending stocks hit their low of the past decade of only 73,000 tonnes.

Lentil exports in 2022-23 are forecast at 2.3 million tonnes, which would be up from 1.6 million the previous year. However, lentil exports through the first three months of the marketing year, at 560,000 tonnes, are running about 90,000 tonnes behind the 2021-22 level through three months, according to Statistics Canada trade data. India is the largest importer to date, taking 146,000 tonnes, with Turkey at No. 2 at 114,000 tonnes.

The situation is more comfortable in peas, with forecasted ending stocks of 650,000 tonnes well above the 2021-22 carryout of 385,000 tonnes and the five-year average of 427,000 tonnes. The pea stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 20 per cent, which would be up from 20 per cent the previous year.

Canadian pea production in 2022-23 of 3.4 million tonnes compares with the 2.3 million tonnes grown in 2021-22. Exports are forecast at 2.5 million tonnes, from 1.9 million. Domestic usage is also expected to rise by 24 per cent, at 686,000 tonnes.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

About the author

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Editor - Daily News

Phil Franz-Warkentin grew up on an acreage in southern Manitoba and has reported on agriculture for over 20 years. Based in Winnipeg, his writing has appeared in publications across Canada and internationally. Phil is a trusted voice on the Prairie radio waves providing daily futures market updates. In his spare time, Phil enjoys playing music and making art.

explore

Stories from our other publications