Sept. 4 — Outside markets started the day in a down mood, then tried to turn it more positive as the day went on, and we did see small gains at the close.
Grains followed along and continued to drift lower as other markets made an effort at a recovery. Good weather forecasts and steady harvest progress — and add to that further industry yield estimates coming in, showing a potential bumper yield in U.S. corn and beans — have traders and buyers sitting back waiting to see how low futures can go for the short term.
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Frost will be the catalyst that will put new life back into the grain markets. The harder the frost, the higher the futures will go!
The U.S. dollar fell three-10ths of a cent. The Canadian dollar closed up 1.5 cents at US92.1 cents,. up 0.61 cents over last week’s close.
The Dow Jones September quote is up 90 points at 9,420, down 116 points from last week.
Crude oil is up six cents at US$68.02 a barrel, down $4.72 from last week.
Corn closed down eight to 11 cents a bushel today, and down 22 cents for the week.
Beans closed down 14-21 cents a bushel on the day, and down 89 cents for the week.
Wheat futures closed down six to 10 cents a bushel on the various U.S. exchanges. Minneapolis September wheat closed down 8.2 cents a bushel, and down 41 cents for the week.
Canola closed down $9-$17 per tonne today, down $30.60 per tonne on the November from last week.
October Western barley jumped $2.30 per tonne, closing at $107.30. November futures are up $2.30 at $146.30 per tonne.
It looks like the grain markets are going to trend lower until the weather tells them otherwise. Traders are comfortable pushing the markets lower until they believe a frost is imminent, and then you will see a hard about-face I am sure.
Forecasts indicate another decent weekend ahead, which will allow a fair chunk of harvest to get completed, which will also help to reduce concerns if and when a frost does hit.
Next week’s weather forecasts are going to be watched closely by everyone and if a frost is predicted you can be certain markets will overreact, so be prepared: there may be a pricing opportunity just ahead.
Good luck in the fields this weekend; be safe!
That’s all for this week. — Brian
— Brian Wittal has spent over 27 years in the grain industry, including as an elevator manager and producer services representative for Alberta Wheat Pool, a regional sales manager for AgPro Grain and farm business representative for the Canadian Wheat Board, where he helped design some of the new pricing programs. He also operates his own company providing marketing and risk management advice for Prairie grain producers. Brian’s daily commentaries focus on how domestic and world market conditions affect you directly as grain producers.
Brian welcomes feedback and information on market conditions in your area, such as current offering prices, basis levels, trucking premiums and special crops contracts. Contact Brian today.
