By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, July 15 (MarketsFarm) – Canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) were mixed at midday Thursday, in choppy trading.
A Winnipeg-based trader said there was a private consultancy estimate that projected the Canadian canola crop at 19.1 million tonnes, which the trader took with a grain of salt.
“I don’t know what crops they were looking at. It’s really a hard time estimating the crop, because there’s so much variability across Western Canada,” he stated.
With the drought across the region, it’s very likely canola production will fall well short of the 20 million tonnes Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada projected. However, over the last few weeks traders and analysts suggested a harvest of 16 million to 18 million tonnes.
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The weather forecast said Prairie temperatures are to rise into the low to mid-30 degrees Celsius, with very little rain, which will put more pressure on already overly stressed crops.
While Chicago soyoil was still higher, its gains have receded, taking away spillover support from canola. Declines in Chicago soybeans and soymeal added pressure.
Meanwhile, gains in European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil provided support.
The Canadian dollar was weaker, with the loonie at 79.67 U.S. cents compared to Wednesday’s close of 80.02.
As of today, ICE increased the regular daily limit from C$30 to now C$50 per tonne.
Approximately 11,550 canola contracts were traded as of 10:30 CDT.
Prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne at 10:30 CDT:
Price Change
Canola Nov 894.00 up 0.50
Jan 881.50 dn 2.60
Mar 864.30 dn 4.70
May 844.00 dn 5.10
