By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures closed mostly higher on Wednesday, as trading bounced back and forth on either side of unchanged.
Support for canola came from gains in European rapeseed and Chicago soyoil, but those were kept in check by losses in Chicago soybeans and soymeal. The Malaysian palm oil market was closed. Global crude oil prices turned around to push higher, with spillover going into the oilseeds.
An analyst noted May canola’s 20-day and 100-day moving averages were converging, which suggested the oilseed is about to move either way.
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A trader said canola should break out of its narrow movement over the last few days, as it’s to receive guidance from the United States Department of Agriculture’s April supply and demand report. He said those shifts in canola will be determined by where the USDA places soybean ending stocks and South American soybean production.
The Canadian dollar was falling hard at mid-afternoon Wednesday due to a sharp uptick in the United States dollar. The loonie tumbled to 73.09 U.S. cents compared to Tuesday’s close of 73.65.
There were 56,952 contracts traded on Wednesday, compared to Tuesday when 50,655 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 43,020 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola May 638.30 dn 0.50 Jul 649.10 up 1.00 Nov 658.70 up 1.30 Jan 665.30 up 1.00
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were lower on Wednesday, in positioning ahead of tomorrow’s supply and demand report.
The United States Department of Agriculture is set to release its World Agricultural Supply and Demands Estimates at 11 am CDT on Thursday. U.S. soybean ending stocks are expected to bump up two million bushels at 317.0 million. Soybean production in Brazil is projected to be down from last month’s call of 155 million and output in Argentina is to inch up from 50.0 million. The world carryout is to ease back by 500,000 tonnes at 113.80 million.
The USDA announced a private sale of 254,000 tonnes of old crop soybeans to unknown destinations.
Trade guesses for the USDA weekly export sales report put old crop sales at 200,000 to 600,000 tonnes for the week ended Mar. 28, with new crop sales at zero to 100,000 tonnes. Total old and new crop soymeal is pegged at 150,000 to 400,000 tonnes and that for soyoil range from 5,000 tonnes in net reductions to sales of 10,000 tonnes.
Brazilian soybean exporters estimated April exports are to jump to 12.73 million tonnes from their previous call of 10.65 million.
CORN futures were higher on Wednesday, due to expected reductions in the S&D report.
The the average trade guess put U.S. corn ending stocks at 2.11 billion bushels, which would be down 63 million from March.
Brazil corn production is to drop from 124.0 million and that for Argentina is to slip back at 56.0 million. Global ending stocks are projected to down from 319.60 million.
Weekly export sales are expected to be 750,000 to 1.30 million tonnes of old crop corn. New crop sales are projected to zero to 100,000 tonnes.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported ethanol production as of Apr. 5 came in at an average of 1.056 million barrels per day, dipping 17,000 BPD from the previous week. Trade guesses ranged from a drop of 15,000 barrels per day to an increase of 10,000. Ethanol stocks were down 208,000 barrels at 26.208 million. Projections for ethanol stocks were down 216,000 barrels to up 400,000.
A report said Ukraine could export 600,000 tonnes of corn to China this month and 400,000 in May.
WHEAT futures were higher on Wednesday, with a sharp increase for Kansas City.
The U.S. weather outlook called for the Central and Northern Plains along with the Delta to be drier over the next six to 10 days. The eastern portion of the Midwest is to be wetter than the rest of that region.
For the April S&D, U.S. wheat ending stocks are to increase from the 273 million bushels in March, and the global carryover is to nudge up as well.
Consultancy Argus upped its call on Russian wheat production for 2024/25 to 92.1 million tonnes from 90 million.
Weather service Skymet forecast India to receive normal monsoon rains this summer.
