North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola drops to fresh contract lows

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Published: February 25, 2019

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, Feb. 25 (CNS Canada) – ICE Futures canola contracts were down sharply on Monday, hitting fresh lows in the process as speculators added to their net short positions and some stops were hit on the way down.

Large Canadian canola supplies, losses in Chicago Board of Trade soyoil, and the advancing South American soybean harvest all added to the weakness in canola.

Updated supply/demand tables from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada raised their estimates for both 2018/19 and 2019/20 canola ending stocks by 200,000 tonnes, to 2.500 million tonnes in both years.

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CBOT soybeans settled with small gains, as increased optimism on the Chinese trade front provided some support.

About 30,567 canola contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 24,859 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 21,554 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were stronger on Monday, although the market settled well off its session highs.
While there has yet to be anything official come out of trade talks between the United States and China, market participants are generally of the opinion that a deal is close.

China reportedly promised to purchase more U.S. agricultural goods, including an additional 10 million tonnes of soybeans. For its part, the U.S. will push back increased tariffs on Chinese imports for the time being.

Brazil’s soybean harvest is nearly half complete, with 45 per cent off the fields already. That’s well ahead of the average for this time of year of about 27 per cent done, according to a report from AgRural.

CORN futures were weaker, taking some direction from a large drop in wheat.

Speculators were noted sellers, as corn retreated from earlier gains.

However, the trade optimism provided some support for corn and kept the market range-bound overall.

The USDA reported export sales of 279,400 tonnes of corn to Mexico.

WHEAT futures were lower across the board, as the U.S. continues to miss out on export opportunities.

Wheat has trended lower for the past two weeks, looking to uncover some demand. Cheaper supplies out of Europe and Russia continue to provide stiff competition.

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