Canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange were still reeling on Friday following the release of Statistics Canada’s bearish canola production estimate as well as weaker comparable oil prices.
StatCan projected the 2025-26 canola crop at 19.94 million tonnes in Thursday’s report, compared to 19.24 million last year and the five-year average of 18.25 million.
An analyst believes there will be upward revisions to canola output in StatCan’s December report. With the absence of Chinese demand, growers are selling on fears there won’t be higher prices next year. The analyst mentioned other market participants are predicting canola prices will drop another C$100 per tonne.
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Glacier FarmMedia – Canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange took another sharp drop on Friday as Thursday’s report from Statistics Canada…
Chicago soyoil, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil were in the red. Crude oil was also lower as the trade shifts its focus towards the OPEC+ meeting next week.
There will be no trading for most of Monday in Canada and the United States due to Labour Day, but there will be an evening session.
High temperatures of around 30 degrees Celsius were forecast across the Prairies today. Central Saskatchewan will see rain and thunderstorms to go along with the hot conditions, while Lethbridge will see some showers.
At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was up one-tenth of a U.S. cent compared to Thursday’s close.
There were 58,059 canola contracts traded on Friday, compared to Thursday when 53,628 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 37,148 of the contracts traded.
The December CORN contract had its biggest one-day gain since early July on Friday and reached its highest price in more than a month at US$4.025 per bushel.
The United States Department of Agriculture reported old crop corn export sales commitments so far in the 2024-25 marketing year at 70.475 million tonnes, 98 per cent of the USDA’s forecast. New crop commitments were 18.775 million tonnes, the second-largest amount for the current week on record behind 2021-22.
Most of the U.S. will see cooler temperatures over the next week and a half with precipitation across South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and Kansas. The rest of the U.S. Corn Belt will see lighter and scattered amounts of rain.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported the Argentine corn harvest at 97.2 per cent complete, up from 95.9 per cent last week.
November SOYBEANS continued to trade rangebound, but made a second straight gain for the first time since last week.
The USDA reported old crop soybean commitments at 50.869 million tonnes, 100 per cent of the USDA’s estimate. New crop business totaled 7.228 million tonnes, 28.8 per cent below last year due to a lack of Chinese buying.
The Energy Information Administration said 1.045 billion gallons of soyoil were used for biofuel production in June, the largest amount in six months.
Analysts projected the July U.S. soybean crush to be 207.1 million bushels ahead of the USDA’s report on Tuesday. Soyoil stocks would be at 1.895 billion pounds.
All three U.S. WHEAT varieties saw prices rise on Friday, with the biggest gains coming in Chicago soft wheat.
While 25 to 75 millimetres of rain are expected for the U.S. Southern Plains next week, the Northern Plains will see drier conditions which would enable harvest progress.
U.S. wheat export sales commitments total 12.152 million tonnes so far this marketing year, 51 per cent of the USDA’s projection. It was also the largest amount of wheat commitments at this time of year since 2013-14.
