By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, April 8 (MarketsFarm) – ICE Futures canola contracts were weaker at the end of trading on Monday.
Much of the trade for the day pertained to the spread, according to a Winnipeg-based trader. He commented the technical bias has shifted to the downside and spec funds remained short.
The ongoing Canada/China dispute could hurt any much needed spillover for canola from trade deal between the United States and China.
However, that deal may not be ready to sign by the end of April, as sometime in May is becoming more likely. But, US/China trade officials are negotiating by teleconferencing this week.
Read Also
North American grain/oilseed review: Canola ends down, but off session lows
Glacier FarmMedia — ICE Futures canola market was weaker on Wednesday but finished well off its session lows after uncovering…
Canadian and Chinese officials had also been teleconferencing, according to the federal government. But, there have been no recent updates and no further word of a high-level delegation going to China, nor any update on Canada’s scientific delegation that is also to go to China.
There is growing speculation that Canadian farmers will be switching from planting canola to wheat this spring, which would provide support for canola.
As would the European rapeseed crop this year, if production decreases, as farmers there are facing drought and insect damage.
The Canadian dollar was up by midafternoon on Monday, at 75.11 U.S. cents, which also weighed on values.
About 15,400 contracts were traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when approximately 23,000 contracts changed hands.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were slightly weaker on Monday.
Traders spent the day squaring their positions ahead of the United States Department of Agriculture’s release of its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates on Tuesday. The markets are not expecting any major surprises, but are interested in the USDA’s data on old crop amounts and the South American harvest.
African Swine Fever is said to have wiped out about a third of China’s hog population. African Swine Fever is almost always fatal in hogs, but harmless to humans. The loss of so many hogs could sharply reduce China’s global demand for soybeans and oilseeds by approximately 22 million tonnes, according to a report.
Trade negotiations between the U.S. and China have been continuing by teleconference. The U.S. has been demanding to maintain some tariffs on Chinese imports and the right to re-impose other tariffs should China fail to comply with the agreement. China is demanding the agreement be equal to both countries.
CORN futures were weaker on Monday.
More precipitation is forecast this week for the U.S. Midwest and the Northern Plains. Such will add to flood issues that have caused billions of dollars in damages. It is now very doubtful U.S. farmers will plant the 92.8 million acres of corn projected by the USDA, as farmers will switch to soybeans.
In the first week of reporting this year’s corn planting, the USDA said about two per cent of the U.S. crop is now in the ground.
WHEAT futures were mixed on Monday, with Minneapolis and Kansas City May wheat up and Chicago wheat down.
Wheat export inspections increased to 19.8 million bushels, up by 18.5 per cent from the previous report. The Philippines was the largest customer, with purchases of 3.8 million bushels.
European Union soft wheat exports topped 551 million bushels so far in the 2018-2019 crop year. That is four per cent lower year-over-year, Barley exports, at 160.8 million bushels, were down 23 per cent year-over–year.
SovEcon has projected Russian wheat exports for April to reach 69.8 million bushels, an improvement over March exports.
