By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, April 10 (MarketsFarm) – ICE Futures canola contracts traded either side steady on Wednesday, as there was little to move prices either way.
Such will remain the case unless there is a breakthrough in the Canada/China dispute or a final deal in United States/China trade talks. Also, a major weather event could affect prices.
Canadian farmers arrived in Ottawa this week and a delegation spoke with the House of Commons Agriculture Committee. The farmers demanded Canada take strong action against China over its ban of canola imports.
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Farmers also said China is only the latest country to target Canadian grains and oilseeds. Others include India with pulses, Italy with durum, Vietnam on wheat and Saudi Arabia on cereals.
The United States Department of Agriculture said in its Oils Crops Outlook on Tuesday, that Canada’s canola exports were at 10.6 million tonnes for the current crop year, and down one million tonnes from the March estimate. Ironically, that is 800,000 tonnes more than estimated by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
There’s very little wiggle room for Canadian canola on the world market, according to the report. An abundance of soybeans and a slowing global demand for that crop has made increasing canola exports more difficult.
The Canadian dollar was up by midafternoon on Wednesday, at 75.09 U.S. cents.
There were 17,533 contracts traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 22,724 contracts changed hands.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were up on Wednesday.
The effects of the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), didn’t last long on the markets on Tuesday, according to FarmLead, which called the report “dull.” Although the WASDE report had some bearish effect, after a few hours the markets focussed back on the weather and flooding.
That said, Wednesday has not been a good day in several U.S. states. About 30 centimetres of snow was expected for South Dakota, and rain mixed with snow for Colorado, Nebraska and Kansas. Major amounts of precipitation will add to the flood woes throughout the U.S. Midwest and Northern Plains.
Those wet conditions could force U.S. farmers to change their planting intentions this year from corn to soybeans.
The USDA has estimated Brazil’s soybean production at 117 million tonnes for this crop year, and predicted the next crop could top 124 million tonnes. Argentina’s soybean crop this crop year was pegged at 55 million tonnes.
There was a private sale of 180,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations reported to the USDA today.
The USDA will release its latest export report on April 11.
CORN futures were stronger on Wednesday.
The USDA estimated Brazil’s 2018-19 corn production at 96 million tonnes, but that could reach 100 million tonnes. The country’s safrina corn crop is expected to be 74 million tonnes.
In U.S./China trade talks; there was speculation that China could ease its tariffs on U.S. ethanol products. Negotiations have been continuing this week by teleconference.
WHEAT futures were mixed on Wednesday, with gains in Minneapolis and losses in Kansas City and Chicago.
Winter wheat contracts were down on technical selling and spring wheat was up due to concerns about planting delays this year, according to a report.
Ukraine’s wheat exports are said to have reached 18.48 million tonnes this crop year. France’s soft wheat exports, outside of the European Union, were approximately 13.08 million tonnes.
While the USDA estimated global wheat ending stocks to be 275.6 million tonnes, the agency noted that China hold 51 per cent of it.
