MarketsFarm — Canadian wheat carryout for the 2021-22 crop year will be even tighter than earlier forecasts, according to updated supply/demand estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), released Wednesday.
The October report included only minor adjustments for most crops, with the most notable change from September being a 500,000-tonne reduction in projected wheat ending stocks for 2021-22, now at 3.45 million tonnes. That compares with the 5.705 million-tonne carryout from the previous year.
The tighter stocks were due to an increase in projected wheat exports. The government agency raised their forecast for 2021-22 wheat exports to 16.1 million tonnes, from 15.6 million in September. That would still be down sharply from the 26.407 million tonnes exported in 2020-21, after drought cut into Canada’s crop.
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Total wheat production for 2021-22 was left unchanged at 21.715 million tonnes, which compares with the 35.183 million tonnes grown the previous year.
Supply/demand tables for canola were left unchanged from September, with ending stocks forecast to tighten to 500,000 tonnes by the end of the current marketing year. That compares with the 2020-21 carryout of 1.767 million tonnes.
Tables: October estimates for Canadian major crops’ supply and demand, in millions of metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
