MarketsFarm — Enormous canola crush margins will lead to increased demand for the Canadian oilseed, according to MarketsFarm’s director of markets and weather Bruce Burnett.
As of Tuesday, the nearby November-October margins were estimated at $215.51 per tonne, while the same position for November-October 2023 now stands at $124.48/tonne. This time last year their margins were minus $22.42/tonne and plus $179.59, respectively.
Burnett explained Statistics Canada (StatCan) has called for total canola use in 2022-23 to be about 18 million tonnes. Of that, 9.5 million tonnes are expected to be acquired by crushers. However, he suggested the crush could push upward to 11 million tonnes.
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As the harvest in southern Alberta presses on, a broker said that is one of the factors pulling feed prices lower in the region. Darcy Haley, vice-president of Ag Value Brokers in Lethbridge, added that lower cattle numbers in feedlots, plentiful amounts of grass for cattle to graze and a lacklustre export market also weighed on feed prices.
Also, Burnett said, the August crush is often less than in other months due to summertime maintenance. He expects volumes to rise because of higher margins once September has rolled around.
All this, Burnett suggested, could put a strain on canola supplies.
StatCan on Monday released its model-based principal field crop estimates, which upped canola production from 18.4 million tonnes to now 19.5 million.
There’s a good chance of the new estimate being trimmed come the federal agency’s Sept. 14 update, he said. More accurate data won’t be available until December with the survey-based report.
— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.
